Model Output Discussion - 31/8/14 Onwards.

[bryan629]

Some of the charts from todays output remind me a bit of some of the charts from early Oct 81 which ended up a rather cold month.

 you have a very good memory SD ... October 3rd 1981 , some very good similarities 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Can we stick to Model "Output" please, There are other threads for historical charts.

 

Many Thanks, PM.

Edited September 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Man With Beard]

Pattern change certainly looks set but longer term I think there's a way to go before a northern blocking scenario is nailed, there have been SO many false starts with Greenland Highs and the like over the last 18 months - a few charts today have suggested the low pressure never making it to the south (the centre of the low that is, not the effects of it) and then moving away NE with a more zonal set-up following interspersed with occasional temporary mid-Atlantic highs, so wet but still mild - in the 7-14 day period I would say this is at least 50/50 vs the full northern blocking option, going by the charts and recent history.

That said, if northern blocking does take hold in the right place, there's enough cold up there to put high ground in Scotland on snow alert, and it could be an early indication that the Atlantic won't be as crazily powerful as last October.

[knocker]

Although retaining the blocking to the west slight change of position of the upper low with the GFS this morning just south of Iceland. This could well mean that England, certainly the southern half, could escape the worst of the unsettled weather..Later in the week it has it more central to the UK.

Edited September 30, 2014 by knocker

[Paul]

Jo's latest forecast - change approaching..

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6183;sess=

[knocker]

Much the same story with the ECM

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

The ECMWF model is having a bit of a fallout with the GFS, by wanting to keep the heart of the Low Pressure system directly over the UK (example for next Tuesday):

The 00Z GFS, though, does generally keep it more out towards the North-West and the Low looks a bit bigger (example again for next Tuesday):

The ECMWF seems to have stronger blocking to the North-West and North, which seems to help force the Low further South (although the Low does rebound Westwards to the West of the UK later on in the run). Nevertheless, I do personally think ECMWF has overdone the amplification of heights to the West and North-West and I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS ends up handling the Low better nearer to the time.

Either way, the general pattern appears to be (mostly) in shape - Low Pressure staying close by to the UK, and with still good agreement for the generally settled weather in the last few weeks (especially for Southern parts) to break down from the West. A cooler flow establishing from between the West to North-West direction as the Low breaks through later on this week bringing spells of rain and showers for places, especially over North-Western areas. It's likely that the disturbed weather will continue into next week, but certainly a possibility that Southern or South-Eastern areas could avoid the worst of the showers, or longer spells of rain, depending how far South-East the Low gets.

Edited September 30, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[Polar Maritime]

Once again this morning some very Autumnal charts on offer throughout the run, As Lows start to spin in off the Atlantic from a N/W flow bringing very wet/windy weather by weeks end, With gales in the North making it feeling cool if not cold for some. A real contrast to what we have got/been used to over the past weeks, With strong Heights over the Poles pushing the Jet over or South of the UK.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

After a prolonged period of high pressure all models in good agreement now for low pressure to take over giving all of us some rain at times with stronger winds and cooler temperatures from Friday / Saturday. Once overnight rain clears Saturday its self should be a fairly sunny day with temperatures ranging from 12c in Scotland to around 18c in the south, Sunday and Monday are likely to have a mix of sunshine and showers along with some gusty winds

 

Edited September 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

Beauty..

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes SB, Some stormy conditions for the N/W of the UK on the 7/8th, Some quite tight isobars there..

 

 

Edited September 30, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Nick F]

My second look, synoptically, for the next 14 days ahead - the general synopsis is for increasingly unsettled conditions for early October, as upper troughing and low pressure systems to the NW move in across the UK into next week:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6186;sess=

 

Will try and do this outlook twice week now, time and work permitting, with updates in between.

[phil nw.]

Time for a new thread peeps so closing this shortly.

[phil nw.]

Ok closing this now.New thread here

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81482-model-output-discussion-1200-hrs-300914/