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Model Output Discussion - 31/8/14 Onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Latest GFS run again brings in the Atlantic around the 14th, And ends unsettled and cool from the N/W.

 

gfsnh-0-348.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

In all my seven years of model watching, this period now has taken the biscuit! The gfs and ecm are in luny land and to make a decent forecast based on there predictions is impossible. Hopefully we may well see some more reliable output in the near future....well i said hope, its bound to happen!!!

 

i dont really understand you on this sir..

looks pretty clear to me that we will be under mainly high pressure influence for another week with one withdrawing east, a blip as a fornt and trough move through to our east, then more high pressure throughout next week which is expected to cross over us resulting in some warmth later next wee as winds move to the southern quadrant.

looks mainly dry for most, reasonably warm especially in the sun but rather cloudy at times.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Cleaner, fresher air looks like spreading from the north west to all areas during the weekend once a band of rain has cleared away southeastwards with sunny spells and a few showers dotted around but the north of the uk staying unsettled, daytime temperatures close to average but nights becoming chilly :- )

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some Charts to back post's up would be appreciated.

 

Many Thanks, PM 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This weekend. The GFS has the upper low north North Sea. On the surface the slack area of low pressure moving  from Scotland to Norway with the Fx being roughly similar.

 

Stark contrast with temps. On Saturday could reach upper 70sF south of the Humber with northern Scotland lucky to reach 60F. Sunday ten degrees lower in south.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nights becoming chilly during the weekend except for the SE..pleasantly warm / rather warm for england and wales with plenty of sun and just an odd shower..more unsettled and cooler for most parts of scotland at first, widespread ground frosts for inland northern / central uk, especially rural areas..at least we will lose the cloudy element to the weather which has been the main theme this week so far..high pressure building in nicely next week across all areas according to the Gfs 00z op run. :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm relieved to see the cloudy high element disappearing once we reach the weekend behind a fragmenting cold front sliding SE..for england and wales in particular it's looking good with a lot more sunshine..and next week looks dry, sunny and warm according to the gfs, this would be a lovely spell of weather during early / mid september if it verifies. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The London GEFS still show no clarity for after D8 as the pressure graph for London indicates:

 

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Most likely pressure will fall around the UK but as the  ECM D10 chart shows, other outlooks are possible:

 

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Though the usual caveats for ECM at that time scale; GEFS have about 30% support for this (though different evolutions).

 

It is at D6 when models have x-model support but it is how they deal with the breakdown of the Atlantic trough afterwards that sends them in their different directions:

 

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ECM evolves that upper low and parks it in the Bay of Biscay, and the next push of the Azores rides over it, keeping UK HP, whilst GEM and GFS to different degrees push the trough east over the UK, initially as a slack affair but later in the run it acts as a conduit for lower heights from the NW.

 

Other than that little change in the short to medium term with the south HP dominated for the next week or so, and the north just having the blip from the cold pool skirting the NE coast over the weekend.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO shows high pressure rebuilding early next week, though some areas could be affect by mist and fog patches early on temperatures by day recover but nights could be chiller again

 

U120-21UK.GIF?04-07U144-21UK.GIF?04-07

UW120-7.GIF?04-07UW144-7.GIF?04-07

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Looking at ensemble means: Settled for the middle of next week, I'd suggest 22C-25C likely, once again:

gens-21-1-144.png?0

EDM1-144.GIF?04-12

Out to D10, good similarity in the 500Hpa patterns - the yellows and oranges moving away, greens moving into the NW, so next weekend may be the limit of the settled conditions for the NW, and a smaller possibility that the south will also turn more unsettled. Looking at the individual members (GFS 00Z run):

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

 

probably 60% unsettled in the NW by D10, whilst only about 30% unsettled in the south.

 

ECM has slightly lower surface level pressure on its D10 mean:

EDM1-240.GIF?04-12

- so the chances of unsettled weather further south are greater on ECM mean than on GEFS mean.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ecm 00z is looking good for next week with high pressure becoming centred over or just to the east of the uk, much as the gfs 00z shows. This would bring a lot of sunshine, light winds and rather warm temperatures but under clear skies at night, turning chilly with fog patches forming and a touch of frost in prone locations...after a brief blip, the anticyclonic pattern reboots with a strong surge from the azores. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A very impressive Gfs 06z op run in terms of anticyclonic domination, unlike the 00z, there is no hiccup to the settled spell next week, it just continues throughout with at least a strong ridge holding on which is then reinforced from the azores high. This is an excellent run for warmth and sunshine with max temps into the low to possibly mid 20's celsius next week onwards, but night's look chilly with single digits c minima under clear skies with a risk of fog patches forming, with local ground frosts, especially in rural areas..a very nice outlook from the 6z :good:

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The Atlantic wave pattern continues in quite a benign state with a lot of mid-latitude high pressure and a slow jet flow.

With such weak anomaly differences i am not sure we can take much guidance from the anomaly charts for next week but for what they are worth both ecm and naef show little change to the quiet early Autumn setup.

Day 10

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=&runpara=

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=101&map=0&type=1&archive=0

Just a hint of a weak Atlantic trough around 10degs west and heights just to our east more or less supporting last nights NOAA chart.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

True enough about the 'anomaly' part of the chart phil but we do need to take note of the predicted 500mb flow.

EC-GFS below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

and of course my usual caution about consistency etc

this note today in my file

Thur 4September

Ec-gfs

Ec follows its last issue and marked trough now has cut off wnw of Iberia but has ridged back over top of this; gfs w’ern trough sharper and now digs into marked trough off wnw Iberia with ridge to e more pronounced

NOAA below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

not conclusive by any means but the idea of the upper trough west of the UK becoming the dominant factor in our weather looks fairly well established I think.

Detail on just where surface features will be disposed is obviously for closer to the time.

To me the Met 6-15 day outlook is about as close to what the various parts of the country may get in terms of surface weather as anyone is able to predict at the moment?

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I must admit that this week has been a little disappointing, a lot of murk and cloud around (albeit rather warm). But it does look like we will get a reset from this weekend with a weak cold front pushing south, the Azores high then rebuilds behind.

UW96-21.GIF?04-18

The UKMO then tries to again pull up a southerly draw

UW144-21.GIF?04-18

This would offer a sunnier solution with temperatures pushing the mid-twenties if it came off.

The GFS is flatter with no distinct Atlantic trough, though it is settled still

gfs-0-144.png?12

The GEM is in between the two. Whatever happens, the sun should return this weekend with a drop in humidity.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

True enough about the 'anomaly' part of the chart phil but we do need to take note of the predicted 500mb flow.

EC-GFS below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

and of course my usual caution about consistency etc

this note today in my file

Thur 4September

Ec-gfs

Ec follows its last issue and marked trough now has cut off wnw of Iberia but has ridged back over top of this; gfs w’ern trough sharper and now digs into marked trough off wnw Iberia with ridge to e more pronounced

NOAA below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

not conclusive by any means but the idea of the upper trough west of the UK becoming the dominant factor in our weather looks fairly well established I think.

Detail on just where surface features will be disposed is obviously for closer to the time.

To me the Met 6-15 day outlook is about as close to what the various parts of the country may get in terms of surface weather as anyone is able to predict at the moment?

Hi John,

Yes we can continue to view the mean flow but your comments wrt to assessing the weather at the surface underlines the difficulties in a pattern with weak upper air anomalies.I should perhaps have explained that was my point.

A glance at the faxs underlines the presence of a number of shallow lows showing within a relatively quiet setup.

One such feature will bring cloud and rain with some cooler air to the ne of Scotland over the next 2 or 3 days.

Certainly a difficult period for forecasting cloud and sunshine amounts with a number of weak fronts in the Atlantic picture.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

as the man on TV said a few minutes ago, predicting cloud amounts in these slack situations is very hard, and this seems even more so if the low level flow is off the N Sea, whatever time of year it is, more so than a flow off the Irish Sea/English Channel areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean shows an anticyclonic spell next week with high pressure centred over the uk, this would bring a fine and pleasantly warm week with plenty of sunshine, I would think less cloud compared to this week for sure and temperatures into the low 20's celsius range across southern uk, less warm further north but pleasant enough, however, where skies remain clear overnight it would turn chilly with fog patches forming and a risk of grass frost. Beyond next week the mean shows lowering heights encroaching on the north west of the uk bringing increasingly unsettled weather off the atlantic for NW Britain, but for many the slack pattern persists although pressure falling a little which would eventually increase the risk of showers but at least it would stay on the warm side of average away from the north west.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ecm 12z op run tonight is looking anticyclonic next week, becoming pleasantly warm with long sunny spells and light winds, for a while the nights look like being chilly with fog patches but warming up, at least across the south later in the week but signs of cooler and unsettled windier weather approaching the far north west by the end of the run. I think there is now good agreement on a fine and pleasant spell for most of the uk next week. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

High pressure tries to take a hold across the nation, lots of flies in the ointment though.. Both Ecm and Gfs  show this.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

as the man on TV said a few minutes ago, predicting cloud amounts in these slack situations is very hard, and this seems even more so if the low level flow is off the N Sea, whatever time of year it is, more so than a flow off the Irish Sea/English Channel areas.

 

Not only off the North Sea John. Wall to wall sunshine early this morning so I popped down the local country park. Soon had wall to wall St and the rest of the day was spent with St forming and dissipating.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The NOAA and GFS anomalies are quite similar for the 10 day period. Both have the Greenland trough eastern Atlantic with a weak low off NW Spain and the HP eastern Europe.NOAA 14 day has the trough moving further east.

 

EDIT

And the ECM with a similar story.

 

 

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Feel a bit guilty for picking the 144 hour UKMO 12Z chart out of the cherry tree, but it could possibly lead to a thundery breakdown if that Low to our West crashes into South-Western/Western UK and ends up engaging with the warm air over the island.

 

post-10703-0-37742800-1409865047_thumb.g

 

While it's unlikely to verify exactly as shown, it could perhaps be something to keep an eye on in future model updates (especially if you're someone who loves thundery weather). 

 

For the moment, that area of High-Pressure just to the West of the UK looks as though it will slowly track Eastwards and likely end up over or just to the East of us. Then, their's the possibility that another area of High Pressure to our South-West could quickly try and join it deflecting Lows away to the North of the UK. Though not guaranteed as the Lows to our North-West could just flatten that 2nd High Pressure system and shunt it back to our South or South-West before it's able to get directly over the UK just like on the 12Z ECMWF run. And we'd probably then see cooler weather being drawn in from the North-West. I think, also, should a noticeable gap occur between both the High Pressure systems to our East and to our South-West next week and help allow a Low to drop just to our West or South-West, then the weather could become accompanied by a few bangs, flashes and rumbles...

 

It does look clear that the weather should stay generally settled over the UK for the next few days or so (with the exception of that tiny Low to the North-East of the UK during the weekend bringing the risk of some wet weather as one or two people mentioned - but probably with Western or South-Western areas staying drier/less unsettled being closer to the High). 

 

I suppose whether the mostly settled theme can be maintained will probably depend whether the Azores High Pressure system can successfully link up with the developing Eastern/North-Eastern UK High Pressure system next week and orientate itself in a way to push approaching Lows to our West or North-West away to our North-East. A failure of a link-up (or if both of those Highs don't connect fast enough), the UK could be at risk of becoming ambushed by Lows to the North-West. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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