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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

It doesn't look like being quite as dreich for Aberdeen as March 1996 was.  March 1996 was a particularly extreme case with just 29 hours of sunshine at Durham and no sun at all from the 11th to 25th inclusive, but as Mushymanrob rightly says, easterlies in March tend mostly to be of the cold grey variety.  Occasionally, if they are sourced from a long way north, you can get sunshine and snow showers from them (it happened in north-eastern Britain around 1-2 and 17-20 March 2001 and more recently on 11 March 2013) but those occasions are heavily outnumbered by the dark drizzly easterly spells.

 

A NW-SE split looks likely for the foreseeable future with a dry cloudy belt stretching SW-NE across a slice of the country, generally dull and wet to the north-west of that, and generally sunny and dry to the south-east of it.  The problem in this type of setup is identifying how far north and west the sunshine will get, but where the sun does shine, temperatures are likely to creep up into the low to mid teens at times.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

March 20th now coming into range on the GFS. Of course, nearly zero confidence this far out, but the last couple of runs have had HP with a slack continental flow so hopefully cloud-free. Fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

You can see the downgrade in the models by just reading people's lowering of expectations. :D 

While the models don't support my thoughts, I can't help but think that the Monday/Tuesday unsettled "blip" may become more than just that. While it's looking likely that HP will re-establish itself I personally wouldn't bank on it.

There's still enough time for a different trend to emerge, and the outlook could look rather different in just a few days. Unlikely? Probably. Possible? Certainly.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

While the models don't support my thoughts, I can't help but think that the Monday/Tuesday unsettled "blip" may become more than just that. While it's looking likely that HP will re-establish itself I personally wouldn't bank on it.

There's still enough time for a different trend to emerge, and the outlook could look rather different in just a few days. Unlikely? Probably. Possible? Certainly.

 

still think next week will be unsettled, typical march Atlantic air, I look like having 3rd wet sunday on the trot, wet week next week with Friday 13th being wet, a repeat of Fri 13th Feb

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

Why is it the northwest always get 99% of all the storms?! 

 

I was in my eliment last year when the southwest had a couple storms.  This years winter can be summed up as being just 'meh' for the south, boring!

 

Now I am ready for the summer at least I guess we fare better than the north but it would be nice to just have proper seasons, snow in the winter and a good proper summer!

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

You can see the downgrade in the models by just reading people's lowering of expectations. :D 

 

 Finding it amusing that in your opinion peoples expectations are lowering?

well mine arent, and im not at all dispondent, im happy enough with mainly dry, tepidly warm, lengthening days, blooming spring flowers and abundant birdsong even if theres some cloud and a little rain.  sounds to me like normal early springtime weather.... :)

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

March 20th cloudwatch. Looking good.

 

gfsnh-0-372.png?0

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A shiny new thread coming up for Spring/Summer. Please hold off posting for a moment.

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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

Last year May was wet but when June arrived it all changed for the better, I think this year will be similar. Interesting update from the Met. today.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

A quick update on the outlook for the next seven days by looking at the latest Metoffice update, charts and posts in here...

Northwest of the UK = crap weather

Northeast of the UK = crap weather

Southwest of the UK = mixed bag weather

Southeast of the UK = Sunny and warm weather

It is as easy as that folks.

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