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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Maybe in the extreme south/south west a few thundery showers maybe at the end of the week but nothing widespread and looks like the HP will come back in quickly probably killing off the threat altogether (that's the way it looks like to me)

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Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Hereford

ugh, talked too soon, met is suggesting some possible thundery showers.. everyone else who wants them can have them as long as they keep them from the west midlands lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Both GFS and NMM show thundery weather from the continent getting into southern UK late on Thursday and more so into Friday but it is brief before high pressure builds back in from the north and pushes any thundery weather back onto the continent by the weekend. As it stands locations to the south of the M4 have a  window of opportunity late this week but anywhere north of here remain storm free.

 

It's still a long way off and things only have to change slightly to bring more of the UK into the frame, but likewise the same token could lead to storms remaining over France and the Low Countries. At least it is something to watch, especially the further south you are.

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

Just looking at today there isnt a lot of cape but something might trickle into the far south i reckon. Wind convergence perhaps helping with lift.

post-7331-0-91762800-1410766093_thumb.pn

post-7331-0-06131800-1410766138_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

Some interesting forecast soundings for the end of the wk for the south - http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/UK+3/FCST/sounding11.curr.1500lst.d2.png â€¦ - Increasing risk of heavy showers/thunder


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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

There appears to have been quite a sprinkling of heavy showers over parts of the Midlands (especially the Southern parts) and some North-Eastern areas of the UK, with the Netweather Radar currently showing some isolated ones continuing. Except for the odd outbreak of light rain this morning, the rock-solid Solihull Heavy Shower Shield ensured none of them got here (albeit the odd drizzly one) with a messy mix of Stratus Cumulus and lower level cloud, although some of it did look quite stormy looking at times.

 

Nevertheless, with the showers being well scattered, and with this thread being empty of reports today (to be fair, some people have probably been very busy too), then I guess it's no big surprise really. Not to mention, most of these showers have probably been free of thunder. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

Arrived this evening in Paris. Some very bouncy thermal turbulence (I was fast asleep until Spanish man started squealing and grabbed my hand!) It's too hot to sleep here  in Dijon...

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

Just looking at today there isnt a lot of cape but something might trickle into the far south i reckon. Wind convergence perhaps helping with lift.post-7331-0-62111400-1410817569_thumb.pnpost-7331-0-71395200-1410817590_thumb.pn

Estofex had no forecast today however what did i miss that caused that potential not to materialise and that others (obviously experts) didn't?

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

The plume will deliver but I may need to send you photos...!

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Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Hereford

thunder seems to be missing from the met forecast again, but the GFS charts seem to be showing allot of potential in the west, the cape values are pretty high if lm reading them right..

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

thunder seems to be missing from the met forecast again, but the GFS charts seem to be showing allot of potential in the west, the cape values are pretty high if lm reading them right..

They're showing a smattering on their detailed charts for Fri.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Currently between education at the moment as things have not gone down well with A levels... Anyway, thought I would come back and have a bit of input today. It looks like a thundery spell is coming back with lots of instability around especially from Wednesday night. As many of you have said though, it looks like you would be really lucky to catch a thunderstorm and not so lucky to catch a shower. The instability is there, it's just that how widespread these thunderstorms prove to be is a different matter.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

This mornings NMM 10km charts show showers for Cornwall, late Thursday/Early Friday. It does, however, show better potential across the Midlands, North Wales and parts of the North West on Friday afternoon- very similar to the 00Z GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

This mornings NMM 10km charts show showers for Cornwall, late Thursday/Early Friday. It does, however, show better potential across the Midlands, North Wales and parts of the North West on Friday afternoon- very similar to the 00Z GFS.

I don't know, I did get it right last time, I think things will be more widespread in terms of risk but showers will be isolated and then becoming scattered later on.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I don't know, I did get it right last time, I think things will be more widespread in terms of risk but showers will be isolated and then becoming scattered later on.

 

You were right for your area because I remember you having a good moan about missing it despite what the BBC was showing.

It was a different story here, had showers on/off all day, then had a cracker in the late afternoon.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81167-wales-the-midlands-south-west-england-weather-discussion/?p=3029280

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Some congestus towers shooting up to the east of here now, the radar shows some action in NE Somerset and Wiltshire too. Only rain so far though. Very July-esque weather today!

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I've got a good eye on those cells from here where there are still clear skies. I just hope that gap between cells goes over here. Some more towers going up to the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Precip charts will be useless, it really will be localised when it comes to these showers.

 

GFS 27KM and NMM:

 

post-15177-0-24465100-1410882870_thumb.ppost-15177-0-50286900-1410882869_thumb.p

 

If I'm honest, as this is unlikely to be widespread, I hope it stays dry here.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Serious amounts of CAPE showing on the NMM for Thursday/Friday!

 

nmm-28-53-0.png?16-18  nmm-6-73-0_uri1.png

 

Some heavy, thundery downpours

 

nmm-7-68-0.png

That's SB CAPE, not really a good measure, ML CAPE is way more widespread so more likely for storms to become more night based and more elevated than surface based.

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There's a lot of mid level cape and surface CAPE showing so we could see both. Elevated storms moving in Thursday night and then surface based storms breaking out in the daytime on Friday looks a decent bet based on those charts.


Scattered storms on Thursday day too

 

nmm-1-53-0.png

Edited by Bobby
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