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Early winter hopes and chat


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

This is more appropriate thread....here's hoping

 

 

A little very early taster for folks on my idea ahead.  I've mentioned QBO and solar slumber.  Jetstream more south and meridional.  I think there's a connection with North Pacific SSTs and will give more detail when I do my LRF but if correct this winter will be quite interesting....so at the moment jetsream to be generally on NW/SE tilt, increasing chances of arctic incursions but also in turn more direct hits from Atlantic storms.  Cold and snowy early, stormy mixed bag middle, a pronounced and prolonged late cold spell....Spring to be delayed.  I'm mentioning it now as recent research I've done showed similar outcomes in past analogues...but situation was quite unique so not many analogues to go on.

 

regards

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

This is more appropriate thread....here's hoping

 

 

A little very early taster for folks on my idea ahead.  I've mentioned QBO and solar slumber.  Jetstream more south and meridional.  I think there's a connection with North Pacific SSTs and will give more detail when I do my LRF but if correct this winter will be quite interesting....so at the moment jetsream to be generally on NW/SE tilt, increasing chances of arctic incursions but also in turn more direct hits from Atlantic storms.  Cold and snowy early, stormy mixed bag middle, a pronounced and prolonged late cold spell....Spring to be delayed.  I'm mentioning it now as recent research I've done showed similar outcomes in past analogues...but situation was quite unique so not many analogues to go on.

 

regards

 

BFTP

Sounds wonderful, here's hoping!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Something like this would be pretty cool...  :whistling:

 

post-9615-0-83260000-1409775534_thumb.jp

 

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Just remember those who dare to predict....What happened when so many were bigging up last winter....the worst of all time....it really was  NOT !!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Just remember those who dare to predict....What happened when so many were bigging up last winter....the worst of all time....it really was  NOT !!!!

Not many bigged up last winter beforehand to be fair. Although no one could have predicted quite how bad it would eventually turn out, the signs going into winter 13/14 were not favourable, notably a westerly qbo and stratospheric conditions going through the winter months. Expecting better things this time around but then that wouldn't really be difficult!

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Would love to see a good deal of northerlies this winter as they have been few and far between the last 3 winters.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Just remember those who dare to predict....What happened when so many were bigging up last winter....the worst of all time....it really was  NOT !!!!

It was the worst of all time from a cold perspective.........we had none!

Until last year I had never gone a winter without seeing a snowflake. I thought it impossible......surely over the course of 5 months (Nov - March) we would have at least a few hours of favourable conditions for snow even in the worst winter. Well last winter showed me how dire things could be.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

It was the worst of all time from a cold perspective.........we had none!

Until last year I had never gone a winter without seeing a snowflake. I thought it impossible......surely over the course of 5 months (Nov - March) we would have at least a few hours of favourable conditions for snow even in the worst winter. Well last winter showed me how dire things could be.

Agreed,you just kept hoping for an upturn in fortunes,that just never materialised,an uncanny Winter,like no other in my lifetime,so on a positive note this Winter will be better,you cant get any worse than not seeing a single snowflake,as was the case here too.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Agreed,you just kept hoping for an upturn in fortunes,that just never materialised,an uncanny Winter,like no other in my lifetime,so on a positive note this Winter will be better,you cant get any worse than not seeing a single snowflake,as was the case here too.

You can get a winter equally as bad though.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

It was the worst of all time from a cold perspective.........we had none!

Until last year I had never gone a winter without seeing a snowflake. I thought it impossible......surely over the course of 5 months (Nov - March) we would have at least a few hours of favourable conditions for snow even in the worst winter. Well last winter showed me how dire things could be.

I remember thinking by the end of January: surely this winter will have at least a day of falling sleet/snow, even 1988/89 managed that? Sure enough the unthinkable happened and there was nothing, not even any sleet. It really was a completely snowless Autumn/winter/spring here, for the first time ever. Such a winter is just as extreme as 1962/63 but in the other direction, so its unlikely to happen again.

 

As you say, even if 2014/15 is a mild one, it cant be any worse!

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

I remember thinking by the end of January: surely this winter will have at least a day of falling sleet/snow, even 1988/89 managed that? Sure enough the unthinkable happened and there was nothing, not even any sleet. It really was a completely snowless Autumn/winter/spring here, for the first time ever. Such a winter is just as extreme as 1962/63 but in the other direction, so its unlikely to happen again.

 

As you say, even if 2014/15 is a mild one, it cant be any worse!

OH I think it could, sustained rainfall and mild temperatures for a longer period could happen again this winter.

I am certainly no expert (or troll) but given the present climate changes, any option is out there right now for the coming season, for better, for worse...

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Until last year I had never gone a winter without seeing a snowflake. I thought it impossible......surely over the course of 5 months (Nov - March) we would have at least a few hours of favourable conditions for snow even in the worst winter. Well last winter showed me how dire things could be.

That was remarkable the lack of snow during the extended season but the standout for me was the lack of air frosts. 3 air frosts during the meteorological winter. Amazing.

The temperature didn't even get to 0C during December nor February. It comes to something that May 2014 recorded a lower minimum than both December 2013 and February 2014.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

That was remarkable the lack of snow during the extended season but the standout for me was the lack of air frosts. 3 air frosts during the meteorological winter. Amazing.

The temperature didn't even get to 0C during December nor February. It comes to something that May 2014 recorded a lower minimum than both December 2013 and February 2014.

 

Completely agree.

 

I think the coldest we got down to was around -1c which is pretty pathetic.

 

I am in a bit of a frost hollow, we have already been down to 4c since the start of August.

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Won't be a popular one whatsoever but a mild Winter dominated by high pressure is what I'd like. I don't like Winter at all but I don't mind it too much as long as it's not too cold and is typically sunny. It's rain and cloud that I have a real problem with. 

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Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

This is more appropriate thread....here's hoping

 

 

A little very early taster for folks on my idea ahead.  I've mentioned QBO and solar slumber.  Jetstream more south and meridional.  I think there's a connection with North Pacific SSTs and will give more detail when I do my LRF but if correct this winter will be quite interesting....so at the moment jetsream to be generally on NW/SE tilt, increasing chances of arctic incursions but also in turn more direct hits from Atlantic storms.  Cold and snowy early, stormy mixed bag middle, a pronounced and prolonged late cold spell....Spring to be delayed.  I'm mentioning it now as recent research I've done showed similar outcomes in past analogues...but situation was quite unique so not many analogues to go on.

 

regards

 

BFTP

 

 

You can tell winters just around the corner when Blasty posts.

 

Just like to let you know mate, if you're wrong I will hunt you down. :p

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A very early look at December from netweather's long range forecast

 

December

A very early look at December here, and at this point it should be considered very low confidence. Currently the forecasting model is suggesting high pressure to the north and in particular northeast of the UK which would translate to slightly cooler than average temperatures for England and Wales, closer to average in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

This September reminds me of this time in 2010. Ive got a very strong gut feeling that we are in for a mega cold winter, even to Rival 2010,,,, :cc_confused:  :shok:  :search:  :air_kiss:

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Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

This September reminds me of this time in 2010. Ive got a very strong gut feeling that we are in for a mega cold winter, even to Rival 2010,,,, :cc_confused:  :shok:  :search:  :air_kiss:

I can't say I remember what September 2010 was like, but jeez I hope your right! When in 2010 would you say it was suggested we were in for a good time?

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

 

 

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Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I can't say I remember what September 2010 was like, but jeez I hope your right! When in 2010 would you say it was suggested we were in for a good time?

 

The CET Dec 2010 thread and the Nov/Dec 2010 Model out put discussion threads interesting reads if you want to avoid the washing up tonight

 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/65027-december-cet/

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

I can't say I remember what September 2010 was like, but jeez I hope your right! When in 2010 would you say it was suggested we were in for a good time?

Hi. just the feeling of the weather we have now, along with an early change of the flora and fauna. Seasonal forecasts are about as useful as a chocolate teapot as you know, with all respect! I just have this gut feeling without the complicated teleconections forecast, that a severe winter is in prospect! Ive said that to several people over the last two days , Ive not felt the same over the upcoming late Autumn,early winter since 2010 :closedeyes:

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