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Early winter hopes and chat


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

Hi. just the feeling of the weather we have now, along with an early change of the flora and fauna. Seasonal forecasts are about as useful as a chocolate teapot as you know, with all respect! I just have this gut feeling without the complicated teleconections forecast, that a severe winter is in prospect! Ive said that to several people over the last two days , Ive not felt the same over the upcoming late Autumn,early winter since 2010 :closedeyes:

Oh.indeed, forecasting even short range I wouldn't bet my house on Lol I'd agree this year does "feel" different, feels like we're at least going to get s proper autumn, things do feel more like they should. Which goes for little I know, but its as accurate as a long range forecast I guess. Let's hope out water is right!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

The CET Dec 2010 thread and the Nov/Dec 2010 Model out put discussion threads interesting reads if you want to avoid the washing up tonight

 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/65027-december-cet/

Where is the Nov/Dec 2010 model output thread stored? looked everywhere, can't locate it. Always fun to read back knowing what was in store.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

This September reminds me of this time in 2010. Ive got a very strong gut feeling that we are in for a mega cold winter, even to Rival 2010,,,, :cc_confused:  :shok:  :search:  :air_kiss:

 

Wow you have done it now.. :bomb:  I hope your right. :hi:  :cc_confused:

 

My personal prediction for this winter is as follows - Winter will be drier than the last one but not necessarily a dry one  :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Where is the Nov/Dec 2010 model output thread stored? looked everywhere, can't locate it. Always fun to read back knowing what was in store.

 

And Jan / Feb 09 as well, they are so hard to find, the Technical / Strat threads I have seen though I cant remember where!!

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Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

Finding anything in the archive is really a nihhtmare! Been trying to find the winter threads from 09/10 but can't see them anywhere!

Another almost autumnal day today, getting there, so glad to see the summer really starting to disappear!

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well if roger63 is to be correct which I have no foundation not believe him after his summer forecast which has been pretty much bang on the money he is going for a warmer and wetter than average winter which sounds about right a this moment in time. But as ever time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

And Jan / Feb 09 as well, they are so hard to find, the Technical / Strat threads I have seen though I cant remember where!!

 

Here's Dec 2009 as an example.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/1-weather-discussion-and-chat/page-90?prune_day=100&sort_by=Z-A&sort_key=last_post&topicfilter=all

 

They are mostly to be found in the Weather Discussion and Chat section because it was before the model stuff was hived off into its own section. So just on the Page x of x button and type in page numbers until you close in on the date you're interested in.

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

If anyone is on twitter, there is an interesting early thoughts from a Amateur I believe called "blizzardof96". He actually goes into detail for a load of different teleconnections and shows us the analog charts. He is focussed on US/Canada but you can see what the charts show for us here. I'm hoping (from a coldies perspective) that he's right!

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

If anyone is on twitter, there is an interesting early thoughts from a Amateur I believe called "blizzardof96". He actually goes into detail for a load of different teleconnections and shows us the analog charts. He is focussed on US/Canada but you can see what the charts show for us here. I'm hoping (from a coldies perspective) that he's right!

no need to go twitter just by the name I can pretty much guess what type of winter is being predicted

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

no need to go twitter just by the name I can pretty much guess what type of winter is being predicted

  :D

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

I would be surprised if this Winter turned out to be as (almost) snowless as last Winter. I mean, their had been the odd rain to snow event in February, and the odd light fall of snow in late January. But considering I'd expect at least 5 to 10 falls of snow here (whether via wintry showers or frontal snow), then it did make Winter 2013/14 feel inadequate. It's true that it was amusing for stormy and windy weather, though.

To have another snow-free Winter like the 2013/14 is not totally unfeasible. I would, however, like to see Winter 2014/15 put up a much stronger fight and bring more snowfalls. And, in some ways, I have a feeling it probably will. A bit of a similar 'hunch' to what ANYWEATHER has regarding the upcoming Winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

East or NE wind perhaps more dominant? Fronts grinding to a halt coming in from the west?

You never know.

Model output wont predict this very cold winter to come, its gonna be unpredictable, but change will happen fast and at short notice from any forecast model. A little bit like the 2010 affair... :closedeyes:  :shok:  :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Here's Dec 2009 as an example.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/1-weather-discussion-and-chat/page-90?prune_day=100&sort_by=Z-A&sort_key=last_post&topicfilter=all

 

They are mostly to be found in the Weather Discussion and Chat section because it was before the model stuff was hived off into its own section. So just on the Page x of x button and type in page numbers until you close in on the date you're interested in.

 

Thanks, I can find some of the archive MOD threads but the run up to Feb 1st 2009 isn't in there, its around page 105, there are lots of general threads but no mod discussion jan xx 09 onwards etc, the regionals are in there but not the MOD threads, also, will the actual charts posted be in there or will they have changed due to them being direct links?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

Here's Dec 2009 as an example.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/1-weather-discussion-and-chat/page-90?prune_day=100&sort_by=Z-A&sort_key=last_post&topicfilter=all

 

They are mostly to be found in the Weather Discussion and Chat section because it was before the model stuff was hived off into its own section. So just on the Page x of x button and type in page numbers until you close in on the date you're interested in.

. Thanks for that! So great to read how Scotland fared during December 2009! Such an amazing time, the whole country it seemed was buzzing, everyone was so unprepared. How did it happen that such a huge event really wasn't predicted at all!
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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

Just bring back this, but 10000 times deeper!!!! :yahoo:  :clapping:  :yahoo:

 

post-21143-0-09324800-1409947188_thumb.jpost-21143-0-74921400-1409947189_thumb.jpost-21143-0-93823100-1409947188_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

. Thanks for that! So great to read how Scotland fared during December 2009! Such an amazing time, the whole country it seemed was buzzing, everyone was so unprepared. How did it happen that such a huge event really wasn't predicted at all!

Indeed, none of the worst winter weather has ever been predicted, and computer models even at this stage are useless in predicting cold winters...Well ......just before the event,,, :rofl:

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

Indeed, none of the worst winter weather has ever been predicted, and computer models even at this stage are useless in predicting cold winters...Well ......just before the event,,, :rofl:

For me its all just about the anticipation, but its nice to have a surprise like 09 or some hope that something good may come. Last year there really wasn't much hope at all, what a dreary festive period (weather wise)

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

A recent outlook from the UWF/UKWF for this winter there are saying that it will be a colder then normal winter with Greenland blocking (Not all the time through)

 

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-201415-weather-forecast-predictions

 

Dont ask why the link doesn't load i have to refresh it loads of times.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Here's non scientific way of looking at what might be in store this winter.  Seeing that the July CET less the August CET gave the fourth biggest difference in CET between the two months since 1900, I took at look at the other years in the top 5 of that bracket....1912, 1921, 1934 and 2006.

And what I found wasn't inspirational!!  :(     If there is a pattern there it's one for a relatively warm and wet winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Cracking read here, the South-East thread from Feb 1st 2009.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/53172-snow-watch-london-ea-se-england/page-25

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/53229-snow-watch-london-se-england-e-anglia/page-35

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81288-early-winter-hopes-and-chat/page-7#entry3033911

 

 

 

Cannot for the life of me find the model output discussion though, could someone please help?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

Well what a dreary day this cold fronts taking its time clearing off from Leeds...ppfftt.. 

 

So just for fun i had a dabble  around  on various weather websites and thought i would pass some time posting here. 

Hope you don`t mind guys but i have just been on Gav`s Weather Website and seen his usual JMA Friday update ... which was briiilant if you have a cold bias and a bias for northern blocking during winter.

I know what he shows is cluttered with a million `caveats` but what Gav does is look for trends as defined by long range models and it can and does go wrong , last august being a good example. 

So just goes to show that long range forecasting is a fickle affair. 

 

In no way am i about to endorse the anomalie charts i`m about to upload from the CFS but boy did they marry up with gavs vid.., November is a bit wierd, out of sorts to be honest , or as some might say `a bit out of kilter` remember this is just for fun and looking out for trends and possibilities. 

i`m going to keep a record of the CFS anomalie runs this month and share what the trends are showing for autumn and early winter with you ok ... so here goes. 

 

Firstly October......

 

post-18134-0-20957700-1410020722_thumb.p

 

 

 

A pretty dry month from this , perhaps the odd toppling front on the prehiphery to the east of the high pressure, otherwise calm conditions across the UK leading to cool/cold nights and frosts... the PFJ well south of the UK , air flow generally from the northwest, daytime temps not that bad for most of UK , warmer further north you go.

 

Now November....

 

post-18134-0-17735000-1410020798_thumb.p

 

A very curious picture, as Gav described, very shallow heights stretching right across the Atlantic and into Siberia. the Atlantic seemingly blocked off from most of Europe. 

To say by now the PFJ should be quite rampant and we should traditionally be seeing low pressure dominating ...its not evident here and still looks like tracking south. 

 

December... 

 

post-18134-0-08362700-1410021438_thumb.p

 

northern blocking is definatley ruling the roost according to this image... the Uk being fed a light north westerly , a quick tweek on this and we end up with an easterly... high pressure just about all over the N/hemispere... PFJ still firing south.. looks like a dry month with frosts and probably freezing fog. 

 

Remember i said caveats applying all over the place, yes they do.  

 

Heres January.....

 

post-18134-0-60085600-1410020115_thumb.p

 

Well what can i say... Battleground Britain ... this would be fantastic if it verified .. a deep trough well to the south of the UK and a commanding high to the north, im sure the MOD tread and servers would be in meltdown with this scenario. :bomb:

 

Heres February.... 

 

post-18134-0-21253800-1410023123_thumb.p

 

Not a great deal of difference from January really, Northern blocking continues. PFJ still diving south. 

 

 

This is March .... 

 

post-18134-0-13640400-1410023530_thumb.p

 

Brrrr another cold month.... again high pressure situated to the north.... Bring it on  :cold:

 

 

 

 

So all in all a quiet autumn being displayed, followed by a below average winter to come........ please dont take this to heart , its just one run of many and i posted just for fun and what looks like a better scenario from last winter.... heres hoping guys :drinks:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

This one would be awesome for South East!!!

 

cfs-2-4116_gtb1.png

 

Was looking earlier at that lot, Feb next year looks very cold.... But like you said.... "it would be" :good:

 

EDIT, It seems the archive model thread only goes back to Nov 2011.

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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