western pacific Tropical Storm Fengshen

[Somerset Squall]

After a very long lull in new named storms (the last one to form was Super Typhoon Halong on July 27th! It is believed to be the first time on reliable record that there was no new named storms in August), we have newly formed Tropical Storm Fengshen, just south of Western Japan. Fengshen has winds of 40kts, according to JMA. Some persistant deep convection has developed over the LLCC, with some limited banding features too. Fengshen is forecast to move quickly east-northeastwards along the northern flank of  subtropical ridge throughout the next few days. Fengshen is expected to strengthen a little, as, for now, shear is low, waters, again, for now, are warm and Fengshen has good poleward and equatorward outflow channels. As Fengshen continues east-northeastwards, it will reach higher shear as it interacts with the mid-lattitude westerlies, and move over colder waters. These two factors will cause Fengshen to become extratropical to the south of Eastern Japan, before finally exiting the tropics into the North Pacific.

 

Edited September 7, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Fengshen has strengthened, and winds are up to 50kts. The storm is becoming more tightly wrapped, and convection continues to persist over the LLCC. Fengshen is now forecast to become a minimal typhoon before eventually weakening.

Edited September 7, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Fengshen has strengthened a little more, to 55kts. The storm is under increased shear now, so not much more strengthening is expected, with JTWC now expecting a peak of 60kts. Extratropical transition should begin soon as Fengshen continues to race east-northeastwards.

 

Edited September 8, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Fengshen peaked at 60kts. 50-60kts of shear is now affecting Fengshen, and it has started extratropical transition. This is expected to be complete within 24hrs.

Edited September 9, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Fengshen has become a potent extratropical storm east of Japan.