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Major Hurricane Odile


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The fifteenth tropical depression of this very active season has formed a couple hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Winds are at 30kts currently. 15E consists of a well defined LLCC, partially embedded in a dense convective mass. The centre is located on the eastern edge of the mass due to moderate easterly shear. This shear will keep strengthening slow over the next day or two. Beyond this, shear is expected to ease which will allow for a quicker rate of intensification. 15E is expected to therefore become a hurricane, in about 60hrs time.

     

    15E is in a weak steering environment currently. Therefore, little motion is expected over the next couple of days, perhaps a small northwesterly drift. Beyond this, things get tricky with detail, but a faster northwestwards motion is expected as a ridge builds to the east. There are a couple things here which could make a difference to 15E's eventual track. Models are disagreeing a little on the strength of the building ridge to the east. A stronger ridge would push 15E on a more easterly track closer to the Mexican coast, meaning more land interaction, and a weaker storm. The second thing which is causing track uncertainty is developing invest 95E to the west. If there was some interaction between 15E and 95E, 15E would likely develop a track with a more westerly component. Although the current track forecast from NHC points to an 80kt hurricane making landfall on the southern tip of Baja California, the track forecast is far from certain, and there are bound to be changes. Nevertheless, Baja California need to closely monitor 15E, especially so soon after the rains here from Major Hurricane Norbert. Communities northwest of Acapulco need to watch 15E too, NHC say a tropical storm watch may need to be issued soon for southwest Mexico, especially if a more easterly track eventualises.

     

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    ep152014.14091000.gif

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    We now have TS Odile, with winds of 35kts.

    If Odile remains far enough from land, I wouldn't be surprised to see that verify Knocker, Norbert intensified that much in similar conditions just a few days ago. Sea temperatures are in excess of 30C currently, so plenty of fuel for Odile to tap into.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Odile has strengthened only slowly due to the aforementioned easterly shear. Winds are up to 45kts currently. Odile's convective mass has really expanded today but the LLCC is still on the eastern edge of the convection. The storm has drifted westwards very slowly today, which means the track forecast has shifted away from the coast. Odile is now expected to head west of southern Baja California, on a track similar to Norbert. Shear is still expected to ease, and Odile is expected to intensify decently when it does, with major hurricane status expected in 96hrs.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Odile looked quite disorganised before I went to bed last night, with the LLCC completely exposed from the convection. This morning however, shows vast improvements. A huge blow up of convection has occured, completely obscuring the LLCC again. Winds are up to 50kts. This recent improvement in convective organisation appears to be sign shear is easing. Therefore, Odile should begin strengthening more steadily over the next few days. NHC have backed off on Odile becoming a major hurricane, because the shear has debilitated Odile more than expected initially, leaving Odile with less time to strengthen. They still forecast Odile to become a category 2 hurricane west of Baja California however.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    The convective blowup you mentioned has not been able to sustain itself. Even though banding features have developed on the southern and western edge of the system, it seems that the LLCC (low level circulation center) is once again becoming exposed.

     

    vis_lalo-animated.gif

    Visible satellite loop of Odile.

     

    It seems that Odile has been moving toward an upper level anticyclone located to its northwest, which is imparting significant amounts of northerly shear on the system. This can be seen on the shear analysis below:

     

    20140912.1800.goes-15.shear.wind.cimss.x

    Shear analysis of the Eastern Pacific, as of 18 UTC.

     

    Odile is located at the extreme eastern edge of the image, near 16N 105W. The upper level anticyclone can be found near 20N, 110 W (this can be seen by the anticyclonic flow around the system).

     

    As long as this anticyclone resides near Odile, the tropical storm will continue to have trouble developing. 

     

    BTW: Spot on first post Somerset Squall, really nicely in-depth, and also the possibility westward movement of Odile you noted was on target.

     

    Sources:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Thanks Vorticity :)

     

    Yeah, Odile lost that convection today. But, once again in the last few hours, convection has increased over the LLCC again, which, as you say, was completely exposed this afternoon. Winds have increased a little more since I last posted, to 55kts. Odile has been drifting very, very slowly westwards, but the turn northwestwards should materialise soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The convective comeback from last night has persisted and morphed into a central dense overcast, flanked by strong banding. Winds have increased to 65kts, and therefore Odile is a hurricane. Shear, finally, appears much lower, so Odile should be able to strengthen over the next couple days. Although not forecast, I wouldn't be surprised to still see Odile reach major hurricane status in this time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Odile has strengthened at a quicker pace over the last 12hrs, and is now an 85kt, cat 2 hurricane. An eye is visible on satellite imagery, and the central dense overcast remains solid. Further strengthening will occur in the next day or so, and Odile is forecast to become a major hurricane in this time, west of Baja California.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Odile is rapidly intensifying. Winds are now at 105kts, making Odile the seventh major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season. Further strengthening appears likely. Track forecast has shifted slightly eastwards, towards Baja California again, which is concerning for this region.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Now up to 115kts, cat 4. Forecasted to reach 130kts. What a beast!

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Time: 18:10:00Z
    Coordinates: 20.5167N 108.55W
    Acft. Static Air Press: 697.4 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
    Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,455 meters (~ 8,054 feet)
    Extrap. Sfc. Press: 922.0 mb (~ 27.23 inHg)
    D-value: -
    Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 44° at 4 knots (From the NE at ~ 4.6 mph)
    Air Temp: 18.4°C (~ 65.1°F)
    Dew Pt: 6.0°C (~ 42.8°F)
    Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
    SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
    SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)

     

    ...

     

    Category 5 with an indirect hit on Baja to come!

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Odile is going through an eyewall replacement cycle this evening. Winds have fallen to 110kts as the inner core weakens. That very low pressure reading however is a sign that once the cycle completes, Odile's winds could rise significantly. Baja California are now in real danger, as Odile's track has continued to shift towards the coast.

    post-1820-0-17556100-1410739837_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Indeed, Odile has made landfall on southern Baja California overnight, as a 110kt, category 3 major hurricane. This ties Major Hurricane Olivia of 1967 as the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on Baja California since reliable records began. Winds have fallen to 100kts now, but Odile continues to truly batter Baja California with damaging winds and extremely heavy rains. Odile is expected to move up the spine of Baja California, weakening all the while overland. Because of Odile's strength however, it will take a while to wind down. Dissipation is expected in 3-4 days as Odile eventually turns northeastwards over the Gulf Of California.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Josh Morgerman and is team intercepted Odile at Cabo San Lucas, Baja California, take a look at his account here, looks like he had quite an experience with Odile:

     

    https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone

     

     

    7:50 pm. Just got back to hotel (22.90231N 109.88354W). Wind whistling very angrily, like tea kettle. Trees bending far. Hotel staff just shoved sofa in front of front doors, which are starting to push inward.

     

    8 pm. Lights flickering. Front doors of the hotel are gonna go. The sofa won't keep them up. 991 mb.

     

    8:45 pm. Wind has suddenly gone from a whistle to a roar. Doors shaking like in a bad earthquake.

     

    9:20 pm. Front doors of hotel blew out of their frames while I was on with The Weather Channel. We've now piled a mountain of furniture against the broken frames. Wind blowing into lobby. Building getting hammered. Screaming, roaring sounds. Whoa. Building just enveloped in raw power.

     

    9:35 pm. We must be in inner eyewall. High-energy blasts of wind smashing building, finishing off doors. Violence. The mountain of furniture can't keep it out. Whoever said outer eyewall had the max winds was wrong-- inner *way* worse.

     

    10 pm. Ears popping. Front entrance completely destroyed. Debris blowing by opening at great speeds. Car alarms going off. Rain and wind enveloping lobby.

     

    10:10 pm. Sounds of trains going by, with whistling. Ears hurt from pressure. Large, thick plate-glass window just exploded-- didn't break, exploded. Interior walls vibrating. One of the worst cyclones I've ever been in. Frightening.

     

    10:35 pm. It's calming. Yes, I think it's calming, praise the Lord. Barometer just dipping down to 949 mb now.

     

    11:05 pm. Calm-- or what feels like calm when you're shell-shocked. Winds maybe 20 knots. Pressure 942.8 mb. People peeking outside, walking around. The front of the hotel looks like it was put through a blender.

     

    11:25 am. Hissing sounds, and a low howl. A piece of tin tumbling across the parking lot. Pressure back up to 952 mb. The eye is passing and we're going back into the cyclone.

     

    Midnight. CODE RED. At 11:46 pm, the backside of the eyewall hit-- no buildup-- just all of a sudden the howling and banging started up again. The hotel manager joked that it sounded like gunshots. Then at maybe midnight... BOOM!!!!! The entire glass wall of the lobby EXPLODED-- with glass, pieces of building, everything flying to the other end of the lobby. Like an explosion in an action movie. A hotel worker and I ducked under the reception counter-- I physically grabbed his head and pushed it under the counter. Glass was everywhere-- my leg gashed-- blood. We crawled into the office-- me, the worker, and the manager-- but the ceiling started to lift up. After five minutes of debate-- breathing hard like three trapped animals-- we made a run for it-- went running like HELL across the lobby-- which is now basically just OUTSIDE-- and made it to the stairwell and an interior hallway. Two nice women dressed my wound. I don't know where my cameradude, Steven, is. I need to find him. People are scared.

     

    1 am. I found Steve-- we were tearfully reunited. I say tearfully because I was so happy to find him alive and OK in the chaos I got emotional. After roaming the flooded, dark hallways alone, I found him sheltered in a bathroom next to the lobby with two other guests. The lobby itself is a heap of wreckage. Steve was in the cloud of flying glass as that wall exploded. Like us, he had to run like hell-- and like me, he was bloodied. Steve saw me and my partners scampering like rats across the lobby earlier-- when we made our escape-- but I didn't hear his calling over the roar of the wind. What you see here is my leg-- dressed in a towel-- Steve's wound dressed in duct tape, and a shoe he fashioned out of duct tape (because he lost his). We're in an interior hall now. We're OK. I think the wind is quieting down. I think. Parts of the hotel are smashed beyond recognition.

     

     

    Odile's winds have reduced to 80kts now as it continues it's journey up the Baja California Peninsula.

     

     

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    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Odile has weakened further, to 45kts. The storm is still inland but is about to move over the very warm waters of the Gulf Of California, which means Odile probably won't weaken much more before making a second landfall, this time on mainland Mexico.

    post-1820-0-75406100-1410903849_thumb.gi

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