atlantic Major Hurricane Edouard

[summer blizzard]

NHC will issue advisories from 4pm.

 

..

 

Still lacks significant convection but it has persisted over a fairly well defined center..

 

 

Track is pretty clear cut with a likely eventual path somewhere west of the Azores..

 

 

Strength guidance looks pretty straight forward too, likely to become a hurricane. 6z operational from GFS suggested something around a strong category 1, weak category 2.

 

Edited September 12, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

Satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the
low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic has a well-defined
circulation and organized convective banding near the center. Thus,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data
and the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 310/12. A low-/mid-level ridge north of the
cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to
northwestward for the next 3-4 days. After that, the track
guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between
the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda. There
is a fair amount of spread in the guidance on where this turn should
occur, with the extremes being the Canadian model on the east near
45W and the ECMWF model on the west near 55W. The official forecast
lies close to the model consensus in expecting a more northerly
motion between 51W-53W. The forecast track keeps the cyclone well
away from land for the next 5 days.

The depression is currently in an environment of light vertical
wind shear. The large-scale models forecast some increase
in southerly shear after 24 hours, which should persist through the
end of the forecast period. Despite the shear, the intensity
guidance forecasts slow but steady strengthening. The official
forecast follows this scenario and is a blend of the SHIPS model and
the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.2N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 18.2N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 19.3N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 20.5N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 26.5N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 29.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

[Somerset Squall]

06L became the fifth named storm of the Atlantic season overnight, Edouard, with winds of 35kts. Deep convection persisted over the LLCC, but is now being sheared northwards, with the centre of the storm now located on the southern edge of the convective mass. The environment, as ever in the Atlantic lately, isn't all that favourable, but shouldn't stop at least some slow intensification. Waters are very warm along track, but shear is moderate (about 20kts from the south), and there is some dry air near Edouard which could be driven towards Edouard by the shear. Nevertheless, Edouard is expected to become a minimal hurricane later down the line.

 

[summer blizzard]

Down to 1003mb although sheared, forecast to reach 85mph.

 

ROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014

The cloud pattern is a little more organized, and microwave data
suggest that the center is more embedded within the deep convection.
Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB,TAFB and objective
numbers from CIMSS the winds are increased to 40 kt. This intensity
is confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass.

The cyclone has a large low-level circulation and the upper-level
outflow has improved. Most of the global models as well as SHIPS
suggest a decrease in the wind shear during the next few days.
In addition, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously
warm water. This should result in gradual strengthening as indicated
in the NHC forecast, which in fact is very close to the intensity
consensus model ICON.

The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 knots steered
by the flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast in about 3 to
4 days when the ridge weakens. The NHC forecast is basically on top
of the multi-model consensus, which has remained in place from 06
to 12 UTC. The guidance in general is tighly clustered, increasing
the confidence in the track forecast.

The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft is dropping numerous sondes
near and around Edouard and these data are being ingested by
global models to help with the initialization.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 18.5N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 19.2N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 20.5N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 21.8N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 23.0N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 28.5N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

[summer blizzard]

While doubtful, SHIPS forecasts near zero shear in a few days so i'd not rule out a major. 

 

[Vorticity0123]

While doubtful, SHIPS forecasts near zero shear in a few days so i'd not rule out a major. 

 

 

The intensity models are very tightly clustered, with intensities varying between 70 and 90 kt in 5 days. That is very remarkable for so far out. Even though none of the models shows Edouard becoming a major, I agree it is definitely a possiblility. 

 

However, before that, Edouard will have to face a significant area of dry air ahead of its trajectory. The Water Vapor loop below shows this:

 

Water vapor image of the Atlantic ocean. Edouard is located near 20N 45W.

 

Note the area of dry air to the west and northwest of Edouard. Shear analysis from CIMSS (not shown here) yields about 20 kt of southwesterly shear over Edouard. Therefore, it looks like only the southern extent of the dry air will be able to entrain into the circulation, which is not as dry as the air to the immediate west of Edouard. Concluding, it is hard to gauge yet how much impact Edouard will suffer from this dry air.

 

A visible satelllite imagery loop of Edouard (as of 20:00 UTC) does show convection being sheared to the northeast (consistent with CIMSS analysis), but recently convection has started to pulse more over the LLCC (low level circulation center).

 

Visible satellite loop of Edouard.

 

Whether this is an indication of further development remains to be seen, but at least shear may be abating somewhat (also reducing the chances of dry air impact).

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/06L_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

[summer blizzard]

The intensity models are very tightly clustered, with intensities varying between 70 and 90 kt in 5 days. That is very remarkable for so far out. Even though none of the models shows Edouard becoming a major, I agree it is definitely a possiblility. 

 

However, before that, Edouard will have to face a significant area of dry air ahead of its trajectory. The Water Vapor loop below shows this:

 

Water vapor image of the Atlantic ocean. Edouard is located near 20N 45W.

 

Note the area of dry air to the west and northwest of Edouard. Shear analysis from CIMSS (not shown here) yields about 20 kt of southwesterly shear over Edouard. Therefore, it looks like only the southern extent of the dry air will be able to entrain into the circulation, which is not as dry as the air to the immediate west of Edouard. Concluding, it is hard to gauge yet how much impact Edouard will suffer from this dry air.

 

A visible satelllite imagery loop of Edouard (as of 20:00 UTC) does show convection being sheared to the northeast (consistent with CIMSS analysis), but recently convection has started to pulse more over the LLCC (low level circulation center).

 

Visible satellite loop of Edouard.

 

Whether this is an indication of further development remains to be seen, but at least shear may be abating somewhat (also reducing the chances of dry air impact).

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/06L_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

The good news is that it has a nice outflow on its northern side and its large size should help it battle.

[Vorticity0123]

The good news is that it has a nice outflow on its northern side and its large size should help it battle.

 

That's true, as long as that strong outflow channel will not dissipate, it will be able to continue to fire convection against the shear. It seems that the outflow of Edouard is directly connected to the westerlies (as can be seen on Earth.nullschool.net; 250 hPa height).

 

Of a final note, convection does seem to be gaining more curvature, which might be an indication of increased organization and abating shear.

 

Source:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-44.36,15.99,878

[summer blizzard]

Looks like it's getting an eye, abit earlier than forecast.

[summer blizzard]

Scratch that, a look at the Atlantic wide view in post 6 shows that its a very broad storm which is why wind speeds are taking a while to respond. It also shows why models don't like 93L.

Currently 996mb, 50mph and forecast to reach 90mph. Latest intensity models have upped a bit with one run going for category 3.

[summer blizzard]

995mph, 60mph and now forecast to reach 100mph (strongest since Sandy if so).

Looks like some dry air but its become a much tighter system today and the core looks shielded from the dry air.

No recon for this system but we get drones flying around every night.

Just need to squeeze out an extra 15mph from it.

[summer blizzard]

Will be upgraded to a hurricane at the next advisory, now popped a clear eye.

Pressure was 992mb and forecast to reach 110mph. Two models do go to 120mph.

Not a bad season in quality.. 5/4/1?

[stevofunnelcl]

It's a Hurricane now, and forecast to become a Major Hurricane... for a while, as a 'fish' storm

 

If anyone wants to intercept this Hurricane... will require a boat

[Somerset Squall]

Winds are up to 70kts now, making Edouard the season's fourth hurricane. Edouard is in quite a favourable environment of low shear and warm sea temperatures. Thus, it is expected to become the first major hurricane since Sandy in 2012. If Edouard does achieve this, it'll be about time!!

[summer blizzard]

It's a Hurricane now, and forecast to become a Major Hurricane... for a while, as a 'fish' storm

 

If anyone wants to intercept this Hurricane... will require a boat

NHC sending a comprehensive 3 plane recon mission tomorrow. Giving it the respect it deserves.

..

NHC also note that mid level dry air is the only reason they don't expect RI.

...

984mb, 80mph and forecast to reach 120mph.

Report of 77KT, allowing for additional steady strengthening this will probably be a category 2 in the advisory after midnight.

[summer blizzard]

Worth noting from the pretty loop in post 6 that there is a thicker bank of cloud on its north western side which should further protect the core from dry air and encourage strengthening.

[summer blizzard]

Now 966mb, 105mph. Radar image is nearly perfectly symmetrical and dry air has been completely ejected with a large radius of solid hurricane conditions.

In the past 24 hours its dropped about 35mb and winds have increased by 25mph.

With great conditions for the next 48 hours and dry air ejected I'd not rule out a category 4.

[Somerset Squall]

Yep, now the season's second category 2 hurricane. Whilst not amazing so far, the 2014 season has done so much better than last year already! Winds at 90kts as you say SB, with more time to strengthen.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

[summer blizzard]

He's a beauty..

 

 

[Sainsbo]

NHC have sustained winds at 110mph now, just shy of major hurricane status.

 

While the eye is quite large and ragged, it is clear in the center and looks to still be warming.

 

 

Not wanting to speak too soon, but it's about time we had a Cat. 3 in the North Atlantic!

 

No real consensus regarding the models on if it will make it though. NHC seem to think it will, I see no reason why it shouldn't.

 

Edited September 15, 2014 by Sainsbo

[summer blizzard]

Oh wow, I'd forgotten what an Atlantic cruiser looks like.

Check out the RBTOP radar in post 20. Solid and large ring of solid deep convection surrounding a large eye.

I've no doubt that the next drop zone from NASA will find at least 120mph. Given its superb appearance we might even get squeeze out category 4 as the 2 models above show.

[Steve C]

Edouard now a category 3, with 115mph winds. The first major hurricane of the season in the North Atlantic Basin.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/161446.shtml

Edited September 16, 2014 by Steve C

[lorenzo]

Edouard from the ISS.

 

Beauty !

 

[Somerset Squall]

Edouard lost cat 3 status 6 hours after it attained it and has now weakened to an 80kt cat 1. This is due to an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle, which still seems to be incomplete. Edouard will be moving over cooler water soon, meaning that significant restrengthening appears unlikely.