eastern pacific Hurricane Polo

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 97E has become Tropical Storm Polo, with winds of 35kts. Polo is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. The storm has some building convection mainly southwest of the centre due to moderate northeasterly shear. The shear is expected to ease over the next day or two, allowing Polo to strengthen as it pushes northwestwards near the coast. Some models depict Polo moving inland and others have Polo staying offshore. The NHC forecast keeps Polo offshore whilst strengthening it into a stronflg tropical storm. Shear is forecast to rise again after 72hrs, which could them begin to weaken the storm as it veers towards the west well south of Baja California.

[Somerset Squall]

Polo has strengthened to 45kts. Convection is becoming deeper and better organised about the LLCC. Polo is expected to become a hurricane over the next day before cooler waters and moderate shear induce weakening.

[Somerset Squall]

Polo became a 65kt hurricane last night. Intensity is still at 65kts this morning, however, shear is increasing over Polo, so the hurricane may be peaking in strength. A little more intensification is possible, but it'll be modest at best. Shear will become quite strong in about 24hrs, initiating a firm weakening trend.

[Somerset Squall]

Polo has slowly weakened as it begins to veer west-northwestwards, away from the coast of Mexico. Polo has lost hurricane ststus and is now a 55kt tropical storm. Moderate shear, and cooling sea temps should continue to cause Polo to weaken. Although Polo should pass south of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California, the area struck ny Major Hurricane Odile, it will still provide further rains here.

[Somerset Squall]

Strong shear has continued to weaken Polo over the last couple of days. Winds are down to 35kts. A little convection exists well southwest of the completely exposed LLCC. Shear is not expected to ease, and therefore Polo should degenerate into a remnant low soon as it becomes more vertically shallow and gets steered south westwards south of Baja California.