October 2014 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Polar Maritime]

9.8c ta.

[The PIT]

I'll go for 11.3C please

[DeepSnow]

11.7C for me

[Summer Sun]

Bit of a tricky one a warm start looks very likely but we can't rule out some cooler air during the second half of the month with nights becoming colder

 

So on that I shall go for 11.0c

[Timmytour]

On the assumption that September's mean CET ends up being very close or ever a touch above August's, we'll have had a May, June July and Sept which get in the top third of warmest for their respective months since 1700 along with an August that's in the bottom third.

I'm looking at 1865 as a guide for this year which had a very average October and so I'm plumping for a CET mean of  9.7 ....albeit one reached through a month of two halves than one with consistently average daily temps.

[sundog]

Well bar a month or 2 we have had mostly above average period of temps since july 2013. April 2012- June 2013 was an overall cool period. We seem the last number of yrs to be going through these mostly warm periods to mostly cool ones.  So going by that i would not be surprised if we enter a mostly cool period again sometime soon. Unscientific a complete guess but perhaps October could be the start of a cooler phase.

 

 I will probably be well off but 9.4c for me please.

[BARRY]

10.1 for me

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

12.2 please. The warm year to continue.

[Lettucing Gutted]

14c

[Summer Sun]

Global Warming over on TWO favours a warm or very warm October

 

Pattern matching (just for fun)

If we look at years where both the August and September CET have been close to 15C there are not too many matches. The best matches since 1900 are 1929, 1934, 1961, 1985 and 2011. The October CET was above average in all those years except 1929 when it was 9.6C. 2011 of course was very warm with 12.6C.

 

If we look at years with a September CET of 14.5C or more and rainfall on the EWP of less than 50mm then we have 1929, 1941, 1947, 1959, 1985 and 1989. Again all years saw a CET of at least 10.4C except 1929. Finally considering years with a very warm CET overall (>11.3C as at the end of September) we have 14 matches since 1900. Only 1 of these 14 years had an October CET less than 10C. No fewer than 8 years saw an October CET more than 11.5C.

 

Bringing this all together there does seem to be a fairly strong signal for a warm October.

 

In my view the best overall match with 2014 is possibly 1989. That year did of course see a very warm winter so I personally would not rule out a repeat of last winter. Many people have been talking about similarities with 1985. Certainly August and September have been very similar but otherwise 1985 was quite different.

 

Looking further back in the archives one year that has a number of similarities to 2014 is 1846 (which holds the record currently for the warmest Jan-Sep period in the CET history). That year saw a cool October followed by an average November and then a very cold winter with December being especially cold at 0.5C. But equally one could point to plenty of differences between 1846 and 2014.

 

So as ever this is JFF and anything is possible. But on balance I favour a warm or very warm October with only about a 15% chance of a colder than average October.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=634209#post634209

[Norrance]

10.8C please.

[stewfox]

11.3c

[SomeLikeItHot]

9.0 Random guess, figure it will be as good as all my other attempts.

[DR(S)NO]

Could I revise my guess please?

Down to 10.4c please

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

10.3 C 

[damianslaw]

I'll go with 11.2 degrees, a little above average but not exceptionally so. Expecting a marked NW/SE split, which will mask what could end up being a cooler than average month in the north, with the driest sunniest conditions reserved for the SE helping to keep the CET levels up.

 

I suspect the atlantic will have the upper hand, but with more of a westerly, north westerly airstream than southerly to westerly.

 

Probably wetter than average in the north west, nearer average in the south east.

 

A typical October in many respects, it will feel preety cool though given the warmth of September.

 

 

[mulzy]

Pretty average fare

10.9C

[Roger J Smith]

11.0 C

 

will post the 1981-2010 daily normals and cumulative values around the 2nd.

[Weather-history]

10.7

[DR Hosking]

It can't be anything else than 11.5C

[coram]

11.1 please

[Stationary Front]

11.1 please

[Gael_Force]

10.2c please.

[TonyH]

11.5c please

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

10.9c please