October 2014 C.E.T. Forecasts

[BornFromTheVoid]

1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772-present record values

________________________________________________________________

 

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN

 

01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888) 

02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817)

03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817)

04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912)

05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888)

06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888)

07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829) 

08  ___11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829) 

09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852) 

10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814) 

11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860) 

12  ___11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887) 

13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 16.8 (1990) ___ 2.2 (1838)

14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 16.1 (1990) ___ 3.1 (1838)

15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843)

16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 15.8 (1818) ___ 1.8 (1843)

17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824)

18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.0 (1954) ___ 2.4 (1843) 

19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813)

20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842)

21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842)

22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931)

23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859) 

24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859)

25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 ___ 14.0 (1978^)___ 2.0 (1784)

26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785)

27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869) 

28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895)

29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 ___ 14.0 (1772*)___ 0.3 (1895)

30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___  0.7 (1836)

31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 14.5 (1772) ___ 0.7 (1836)

 

^tied 2013 (25th)

*tied 1984 (29th)

 

 

And in a graphical form including the daily CET for the 1^st. At 15.4C, it's, provisionally, the 16th warmest October 1st on record,

 

[Summer Sun]

October opens up with

 

15.4c to the 1st

 

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

Scrap that they've updated it

 

Now

 

15.0c to the 1st

 

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[Weather26]

Scrap that they've updated it

 

Now

 

15.0c to the 1st

 

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

Expect that to come down sharply once the rain and the autumn coolness arrives Tomorrow/Saturday.

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the minimum today at 7.4C, and maxima around the mid 19s, the CET should be somewhere near 14.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

Roll Avg   ... Daily Avg . Anom 81-10

14.3C to the 3rd (14.4).... (+2.3)

14.1C to the 4th (13.5).... (+1.6)

13.4C to the 5th (10.7).... (-0.9)

13.1C to the 6th (11.6).... (-0.3)

12.9C to the 7th (11.6).... (-0.1)

12.8C to the 8th (12.5).... (+0.7)

12.8C to the 9th (12.9).... (+1.0)

[Stargazer]

Oops - I'm really late! If it's not too late to register my wild guess can I have 11.1 for this month please?

[Summer Sun]

13.9c to the 2nd

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

up-to 14.4c to the 3rd

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 11.0C while maxima look like being around the mid 13s, so a drop back to around 13.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

13.2C to the 5th (10.6)

12.8C to the 6th (10.9)

12.6C to the 7th (11.4)

12.7C to the 8th (12.9)

12.8C to the 9th (14.3)

12.9C to the 10th (13.0)

12.9C to the 11th (13.0)

[Midlands Ice Age]

BFTV

Live in te Midlands and the temperature has been dropping all morning until about half an hour ago.

It fell to a minimum of 9.9C here and I suspect more widely across the Midlands.

I think tonight might well record a frost not long after midnight

MIA

[Summer Sun]

Global Warming on TWO suggesting the CET could be more than 1C above average by the 18th with some warmer conditions possible by the middle of the month after a spell of cooler temperatures

[summer blizzard]

Global Warming on TWO suggesting the CET could be more than 1C above average by the 18th with some warmer conditions possible by the middle of the month after a spell of cooler temperatures

 

Rolling average or month end average (as a cooling month you'd expect it near 12C around mid month)?

 

Euro ensembles at least are solid in their support for unsettled and likely near average weather.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Rolling averages to the 15th

 

Last 30 yrs: 11.9C

1981-2010: 11.8C

1971-2000: 11.4C

1961-1990: 11.6C

1901-2000: 11.3C

1772-2013: 10.9C

[J10]

Oops - I'm really late! If it's not too late to register my wild guess can I have 11.1 for this month please?

 

That will be accepted but with a 30pt penalty.

[Summer Sun]

14.0c to the 4th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 5th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

13.0c to the 6th

 

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum today of 6.0C and maxima likely to reach the low 13s, the first daily CET below 10C looks likely, and a drop in the rolling CET to around 12.5C.

 

After today, the 06z GFS has the CET at

12.4C to the 8th (11.4)

12.4C to the 9th (13.0)

12.5C to the 10th (12.9)

12.5C to the 11th (12.7)

12.5C to the 12th (12.1)

12.4C to the 13th (11.7)

12.4C to the 14th (11.7)

 

12.4C to the 14th is close to the average of the last 10 years, and about 0.5C above the 81-10 average.

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 7th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 8th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 9.0C and maxima likely to reach the high 14s, so a drop back to 12.2C is possible tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.2C to the 10th (12.2)

12.2C to the 11th (12.3)

12.2C to the 12th (11.2)

12.1C to the 13th (12.0)

12.1C to the 14th (10.9)

11.9C to the 15th (9.1)

11.7C to the 16th (9.9)

 

A cooler outlook recently for the mid month period, matching the 81-10 rolling average by the 16th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.7C

[damianslaw]

Turning into a colder than average start to October here with a number of very chilly nights and days.

[Summer Sun]

12.2c to the 9th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

12.2c to the 10th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

12.0c to the 11th

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average