October 2014 C.E.T. Forecasts

[damianslaw]

A warm up on the cards next week, so will enter the final third of the month above the rolling 61-90 average. At this range I would say strong chance of a slightly above average CET 81-00 average - ceiling probably about 1 degree above 81-00 average. About 20% of coming in below 81-00 average, and very slim chance of a below 61-90 average CET, but who knows a northerly surge in the latter part of the month would help to bring values down markedly.

 

With the wind and rain though despite a probable above average value, given values will not be spectacular it will have felt like a very typical October, indeed in northern parts quite cool overall with values much nearer average.

 

A lot of the month still to go still..

[BornFromTheVoid]

11.8C to the 12th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

Yesterday was 8.7C, the coldest day of Autumn so far. The minimum today is 7.1C while maxima look like reaching the mid 12s, so a drop to 11.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

11.6C to the 14th (12.0)

11.6C to the 15th (11.4)

11.8C to the 16th (13.7)

11.9C to the 17th (15.0) [Date record: 15.6C]

12.2C to the 18th (17.2) [Date record: 16.0C]

12.4C to the 19th (16.2) [Date record: 16.3C]

12.5C to the 20th (13.8]

 

A couple of daily records at risk later this week. Also of note, the latest a date for a  17C+ daily CET is October 11th (1978).

[summer blizzard]

Knew i should have upped to 11.7C. Drat.

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to the 13th

 

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

11.5c to the 14th

 

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 9.9C while maxima look like reaching the high 14s, so an increase to 11.6C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

11.7C to the 16th (13.3)

11.9C to the 17th (14.8] (Record High: 15.6C)

12.1C to the 18th (16.5) (Record High: 16.0C)

12.4C to the 19th (17.0) (Record High: 16.3C)

12.6C to the 20th (16.2) (Record High: 14.9C)

12.7C to the 21st (14.4) (Record High: 15.2C)

12.6C to the 22nd (11.5)

 

The potential is still there for a few record to be set in the next week.

 

The chances of another above average month increases too. I'd guess 90% chance of beating the 81-10 average of 10.7C, and a 35% chance of being 1C or more above.

[damianslaw]

CET set to rise over the next few days, but at the half way juncture I doubt enough to produce a month 1 degree or more above 81-00 average. October is naturally a cooling month, the last week can easily deliver cold CET values under the right synoptics..

 

Chances of a below 61-90 average based on current model outputs does look slim, but certainly not out of the question, we'll know in a weeks time if this is still likely or not, but the form horse is for another above average CET month, but perhaps only slightly so.

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to the 15th

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield on 10.4C -0.3C 1981-2010 average

[Summer Sun]

11.7c to the 16th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 11,2C, while maxima look like reaching the high 17s, so an increase to 11.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.1C to the 18th (16.5) [Record high: 16.0C]

12.3C to the 19th (16.5) [Record high: 16.3C]

12.3C to the 20th (12.3)

12.3C to the 21st (12.0)

12.2C to the 22nd (9.3)

12.2C to the 23rd (12.6)

12.3C to the 24th (13.9) [Record high: 14.3C]

 

As the minimum is 11.2C, maxima today will need to reach over 20C to break the daily record of 15.6C, so that's quite unlikely.

 

Both the ECM and GFS are going for high pressure just to our south for the last week of the month. This would probably support a final CET, before corrections, of between 11.7 and 12.7C.

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 17th

 

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 14.0C, so maxima need to average above 18.1C to set a new daily record. Looking at the latest temps on xcweather, many places around the CET zone are already at 18C, so a new daily record looks quite likely. 

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 18th

 

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday was 16.3C, making it, provisionally, a new daily record. This beats the previous record set back in 1954 by 0.3C. Now to wait and see if it still stands after corrections.

 

The minimum today is 14.0C, while maxima look like climbing to around the 17s, so it's unlikely we'll beat the daily record of 16.3C. It should increase the CET to 12.3C on tomorrows update though.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.3C to the 20th (12.8]

12.3C to the 21st (12.0)

12.2C to the 22nd (9.5)

12.2C to the 23rd (13.3)

12.3C to the 24th (14.7) [Record High: 14.3C]

12.2C to the 25th (9.4)

12.1C to the 26th (10.1)

 

Finishing above the 81-10 average is getting close to certain, but finish like 2008 or 2003 could still bring us crashing back to average.

 

[Eugene]

Also of note, the latest a date for a  17C+ daily CET is October 11th (1978).

 

So yesterday (18th) pretty much smashed that record then.

[BornFromTheVoid]

So yesterday (18th) pretty much smashed that record then.

 

That's for the daily average CET, not the daily maximum. I haven't got the maximum stats to hand.

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 19th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 20th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 21st

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 6.6C, while maxima look like reaching the low 12s, so a drop to 12.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

12.1C to the 23rd (11.6)

12.2C to the 24th (13.8] [Record High Mean CET: 14.4C]

12.1C to the 25th (10.6)

12.1C to the 26th (12.0)

12.2C to the 27th (13.2)

12.1C to the 28th (11.7)

12.0C to the 29th (7.4)

 

A finish above the 81-10 average of 10,7C is all but certain. Whether we finish 1C or more above remains to be seen. The likely finishing range at this stage looks like being from 11.7C to 12.2C, and 11.3 to 12.2C after corrections.

 

The top 2, reef and The PIT, both likely to be close this month.

[Summer Sun]

Silly me went for 11.0c thinking this month would see a cooler end

 

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 22nd

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 06z GFS shows an incredibly warm end to the month, and would likely set new daily records for the final 3 days. It might be an outlier, but if it came off, we could be near 12.7C before corrections, with a slight chance of a top 10 warmest October

[BornFromTheVoid]

Last 3 days of October records, mean daily CET

 

29th   14.0 degC    1772, 1984

30th   15.5    "         2005

31st   14.5    "         1772

 

Looks like we have a good chance of challenging for the warmest 2nd half of October, which was set in 2005 (13.1C). The average for the 17th to 22nd is currently 13.4, and the models continue to show some very mild conditions for much of the rest of this month.

A second half warmer than the first half looks very likely too.