Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

October 2014 C.E.T. Forecasts


Roger J Smith

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

That's for the daily average CET, not the daily maximum. I haven't got the maximum stats to hand.

I suspect that even the core 3 winter months would have managed at least 1 17c+ CET daily maximum.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I suspect that even the core 3 winter months would have managed at least 1 17c+ CET daily maximum.

 

I'll try get the max and min CET data during the weekend if I have the time, build up a few stats for the winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

I suspect that even the core 3 winter months would have managed at least 1 17c+ CET daily maximum.

Since I had the data to hand.

 

Largest daily maximums by month. (Data since 1878 - which is the earliest CET data for max &  min).

 

Jan   13.7

Feb   16.4

Mar  22.1

Apr   25

May 29

Jun   30.3

Jul    33.2

Aug  33.2

Sep  31.3

Oct  27.1

Nov 18.7

Dec 14.7

 

So it apears not for the 3 winter months,

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 7.8C while maxima look like reaching 14C, so we'll likely stay on 12.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

12.2C to the 26th (12.3)

12.3C to the 27th (14.4)

12.4C to the 28th (15.3)

12.2C to the 29th (8.7)

12.2C to the 30th (9.8]

12.3C to the 31st (13.9)

 

A less dramatically warm end to the month now showing up on the models, with a likely finishing range of 12.1 to 12.4C. After corrections, that's likely to be 11.6 to 12.4C. Odds now in favour of finishing 1C or more above the 81-10 average of 10.7C.

 

If this month end up at 12.0C after corrections, the final 2 months would only have to be:

0.9C above average to achieve the warmest year on record 

0.3C above average for the joint warmest on record

0.3C below average for the joint 2nd warmest on record

0.9C below average for the joint 3rd warmest on record (all to an accuracy of 0.1C)

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

 The 1st, 2nd and 3rd warmest years on record all occurring in the space of the past 9 years. Thats quite something.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

The minimum today is 7.8C while maxima look like reaching 14C, so we'll likely stay on 12.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

12.2C to the 26th (12.3)

12.3C to the 27th (14.4)

12.4C to the 28th (15.3)

12.2C to the 29th (8.7)

12.2C to the 30th (9.8]

12.3C to the 31st (13.9)

 

A less dramatically warm end to the month now showing up on the models, with a likely finishing range of 12.1 to 12.4C. After corrections, that's likely to be 11.6 to 12.4C. Odds now in favour of finishing 1C or more above the 81-10 average of 10.7C.

 

If this month end up at 12.0C after corrections, the final 2 months would only have to be:

0.9C above average to achieve the warmest year on record 

0.3C above average for the joint warmest on record

0.3C below average for the joint 2nd warmest on record

0.9C below average for the joint 3rd warmest on record (all to an accuracy of 0.1C)

 

If it finished up at 12.0C it would only be the 8th occasion since 1700 on which the mean CET for October was within 3C of the mean CET for August... but the 6th occasion in the last 100 years 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

According to Global Warming on TWO he reckons the final October CET is gonna be 12.3 now.

Yes we really are struggling to shake off this mild theme. Hopefully we will manage it come December.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 11.1C quite a differance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry

My prediction of 12.2 and prediction of warmest year on record, made at beginning of year, is going to be close.

Would be happy to see December 2014 lower that average though!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

My prediction of 12.2 and prediction of warmest year on record, made at beginning of year, is going to be close.

Would be happy to see December 2014 lower that average though!

 

If we get a very mild November, we might be able to get a cool December and still achieve the warmest year on record!

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today of 12.6C, while maxima look like reaching about 18C, so an increase to 12.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.3C to the 29th (9.3)

12.3C to the 30th (13.2)

12.4C to the 31st (15.6) [Record High: 14.5C]

 

12.2 to 12.5C the likely finishing range before corrections, and 11.7 to 12.5C after corrections. Another very mild month.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Once again yet another very mild month in a long run going back to July 2013, with only Sept 2013 (marginally), Nov 2013 (marginally) and Aug 2014 coming in below the average CET mean. 

 

We've had similiar long runs in years gone by, and they all come to an end eventually, could Nov do it? suspect not, but just a inkling December will!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Looking at records since 1700 and at the rolling 12 month average of monthly mean CETs as they stand after October..............

This year will comfortably go into second place of the highest ever averages at around 10.75 to 10.8, despite being the second coldest of the last four Octobers :)

The warmest rolling 12 month average post October came in 1995, and while the third dates back all the way to 1779, the fact that 9 out the the warmest 12 have come in the last 25 years tells its own story.

In fact 7 months from this year have had a rolling average of over 10.5C and a couple of average months to finish will mean it gets to 9 months, level with the number of months in 1998 and only beaten by 1990 when all 12 months got there and 2007 when 11 months got there. From 1700 up to the Second World War there were only 12 months in total that had a rolling average over 10.5C

Nevertheless, as damianslaw points out, we've had such runs of mild months in the past and they've come to an end. 1960 saw six months with a rolling average over 10.5C. The ensuing winter was one of the warmest but was followed by four colder than average winters, one exceptionally so.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Edit on 1st Nov -- final data show the following order now, for second half of OCT (16th-31st)

 

 1. 13.2 (2014)

 2. 13.1 (2005)

 3. 12.6 (2006)

 4. 12.3 (2001)

 5. 12.2 (1977 and 2013)

 

 7. 12.0 (1969)

 8. 11.8 (1772, 1968 and 1989)

 

11. 11.7 (1996 and 2009) 

13. 11.6 (1795, 1818, 1831, 1898 and 1945)

18. 11.4 (1811)

19. 11.3 (1827, 1954 and 1995) 

 

The coldest was 4.0 in 1895 and 1926 followed by 4.6 in 1896.

 

Surprisingly, the coldest in the Dalton was only 5.2 in 1819, a value almost matched in 1992 (5.8.).

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

We have a New Temperature record for October 30th

 

Jersey reached a maximum temperature of 19.8°C at Maison St Louis today, beating the previous record for 30th Oct of 19.2°C in 2001.

 

I hope we don't set new temperature records for warmth this Winter!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I hope we don't set new temperature records for warmth this Winter!

 

Don't worry, we wont see temperatures like that again for a loooonnnnngggg time!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

Especially since after today it will be getting and (By Wednesday next week.) we maybe getting the other end of the scale-Frost

 

ETA:The record for Warmest Halloween has just been broken-the previous record was 20.0 in both 1968 and 1989.

 

It's officially the warmest #Halloween on record with Filton recording 20.5 °C

Edited by Weather26
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...