October 2014 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Don]

Especially since after today it will be getting and (By Wednesday next week.) we maybe getting the other end of the scale-Frost

 

ETA:The record for Warmest Halloween has just been broken-the previous record was 20.0 in both 1968 and 1989.

 

Met Office â€@metoffice  now

It's officially the warmest #Halloween on record with Filton recording 20.5 °C

 

Wow, didn't expect it to be broken this early in the day!

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 30th

 

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[Methuselah]

Oh dear. I think I've missed out...

[Weather26]

The above Halloween record has been broken again within 2 hours.

 

BBC Weather â€@bbcweather  4m4 minutes ago

The Met Office says the highest temperature recorded so far today is 23.5C at Gravesend in Kent #Halloween #Recordbreaker

[Don]

The above Halloween record has been broken again within 2 hours.

 

BBC Weather â€@bbcweather  4m4 minutes ago

The Met Office says the highest temperature recorded so far today is 23.5C at Gravesend in Kent #Halloween #Recordbreaker

 

Amazing and still the potential to go higher today!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seems remarkable that the minimum today, at 13.8C, is only 0.7C off the highest recorded daily average for the 31st.

It also seems possible that the average temperature for today could reach 16C or higher. While I won't have access to the data for a day or 2, I think this would be the latest in the year that any daily average CET has been over 16C, and there may even be a chance of challenging 17C today too!

[Weather-history]

Hadley has Oct 2014 as 12.5C

I wonder when the last time the same month had the same value, consecutively?

[Roger J Smith]

Looking at these published final values, I notice they actually adjusted upwards by .04 which in rounded terms pushed the value from 12.4 to 12.5 ... that's unusual too.

 

If these are confirmed as final values, then second half (16th-31st) does edge out 2005 for warmest second half of October. If you consider 17th-31st to be the second half, the values are identical for 2014 (13.2) and 2005 (13.1) as in the table shown back in post 156. So either way, the second half of October has set a record.

 

Then I looked at the last third and found, if you take that as 21st to 31st (eleven days) the warmest twelve are:

 

 1. 2005 (13.3)

 2. 2009 (12.9)

 3. 2014 (12.5)

 4. 1968 (12.2)

 5. 1833 (12.0 from 12.03)

 6. 2001 (12.0 from 12.02)

 7. 2006 (12.0 from 12.00)

 8. 2013 (12.0 from 11.99)

 9. 1996 (12.0 from 11.96)

10. 1898 (11.9 from 11.94)

11. 1977 (11.9 from 11.89)

12. 1945 (11.8 )

Edited November 1, 2014 by Roger J Smith

[sundog]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Half of those years since the start of this centuary,definatley think of all the seasons that autumn is the one thats warmed the most.

[reef]

Hadley has Oct 2014 as 12.5C

I wonder when the last time the same month had the same value, consecutively?

 

Another statistical quirk is that the warmest day of the month was the final day at 16.9C, in a rapidly cooling month like October that's very unusual.

 

Only 5 days in all of August were warmer than the 31st October aswell.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the difference between the provisional and corrected CET values for October.

 

 

Below is a graph of the October daily mean CET compared to previous records highs and lows and the 95th and 75th percentiles.

 

 

 

2 new record daily average highs for the month and 8 days in the top 5% warmest days on record.

 

We've also pushed back the date for the latest 16C+ day on record from October 27th to October 31st.

Edited November 2, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[J10]

I'll leave this post here, as I originally posted this, but just a note that as others have pointed out the scores on here are wrong and have been corrected below.

 

--------------------------------------

 

Based on the value of 12.5c, the results are now in.

 

3 players got it spot on. Captain shortwave, DR Hosking and TonyH

 

The seasonal comp sees a new 1-2-3 of BornFromTheVoid, Captain shortwave  and Larger than average Hobo

 

Overall the 1-2-3 stays reef,  The PIT and Thundery wintry showers with the winner now likely to be from the Top 2.

 

PDF Oct 2014 cet.pdf

 

----------------------------------------

Edited November 2, 2014 by J10
To Highlight Error

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just sent a message to you.

 

I'll assume it was the same one I was about to send!

[J10]

The Revised figures are now in, clearly a few of you spotted my deliberate mistake.     Got to keep you on your toes.

 

The spreadsheet is set up in such a way that changing the figures is easy. First time though I got the CET entry wrong though.

 

So this months corrected results No one got it spot on - pjl20101 was closest 0.1c out.

 

In the Seasonal comp BornFromTheVoid leads from pjl20101 with reef in 3rd.

 

Overall the same order as before reef in 1st, The PIT 2nd with Thundery wintry showers in 3rd.

 

PDF -> Oct 2014 cet Corrected.pdf

Edited November 2, 2014 by J10

[Captain Shortwave]

Shame, I liked the spreadsheet showing that I had got it spot on

[Dancerwithwings]

Shame, I liked the spreadsheet showing that I had got it spot on

to 9th, don't know why i'm laughing...... 36th

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley has Oct 2014 as 12.5C

I wonder when the last time the same month had the same value, consecutively?

 

I had a look through my downloaded CET anomalies and found that May 2003 and May 2004 were both on 12.1 C. As far as I can see, this is the complete list since 1950. I searched for them by creating a file of differences and looking down the columns for zeroes, so it's possible that there are others, anyway it looks like this happens about once every four years or so, on the average. I haven't listed all the cases before 1950 but a quick inspection shows roughly the same numbers of them until you come to the less precise values in the early part of the record, then they become more frequent (they should be five times more likely at random back then).

 

2013-14 __ OCT __ 12.5

 

2003-04 __ MAY __ 12.1

 

1986-87 __ JULY __ 15.9

 

1985-86 __ OCT __ 11.0

 

1984-85 __ MAR ___ 4.7

 

1983-84 __ SEP __ 13.7

 

1980-81 __ MAY __ 11.2

 

1979-80 __ MAR ___ 4.7

 

1975-76 __ NOV ___ 6.3

 

1975-76 __ MAR ___ 4.8

 

1972-73 __ FEB ___ 4.3

 

1968-69 __ SEP __ 13.9

 

1963-64 __ APR ___ 8.7

 

1959-60 __ MAY __ 12.8

 

1957-58 __ NOV ___ 6.4

 

1957-58 __ OCT __ 10.8

 

1952-53 __JUNE __ 14.4

 

The gap from 1987 to 2004 is interesting. For some reason this phenomenon was common as dirt in the mid 1980s.

 

Then I searched for any cases of three consecutive years with the same CET value and found that April of 1862, 1863 and 1864 were all 8.8 C. This was also the case for August of 1752, 1753 and 1754 which were all 15.7 C. There were fairly frequent cases of four or even five consecutive years with similar CET values before 1720 but most of those were all rounded to nearest 0.5, so perhaps not as remarkable. For the record, the longest streaks in the Maunder period include eight Novembers all at 6.0 between 1664 and 1671, seven (every September from 1659 to 1665 was 13.0) then two streaks at five, July 1687 to July 1691 inclusive, all of those at 15.5 C, then all of August 1711 to 1715 were at 15.0 C.

Edited November 3, 2014 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

I had a look through my downloaded CET anomalies and found that May 2003 and May 2004 were both on 12.1 C. As far as I can see, this is the complete list since 1950. I searched for them by creating a file of differences and looking down the columns for zeroes, so it's possible that there are others, anyway it looks like this happens about once every four years or so, on the average. I haven't listed all the cases before 1950 but a quick inspection shows roughly the same numbers of them until you come to the less precise values in the early part of the record, then they become more frequent (they should be five times more likely at random back then).

 

2013-14 __ OCT __ 12.5

 

2003-04 __ MAY __ 12.1

 

1986-87 __ JULY __ 15.9

 

1985-86 __ OCT __ 11.0

 

1984-85 __ MAR ___ 4.7

 

1983-84 __ SEP __ 13.7

 

1980-81 __ MAY __ 11.2

 

1979-80 __ MAR ___ 4.7

 

1975-76 __ NOV ___ 6.3

 

1975-76 __ MAR ___ 4.8

 

1972-73 __ FEB ___ 4.3

 

1968-69 __ SEP __ 13.9

 

1963-64 __ APR ___ 8.7

 

1959-60 __ MAY __ 12.8

 

1957-58 __ NOV ___ 6.4

 

1957-58 __ OCT __ 10.8

 

1952-53 __JUNE __ 14.4

 

The gap from 1987 to 2004 is interesting. For some reason this phenomenon was common as dirt in the mid 1980s.

 

Then I searched for any cases of three consecutive years with the same CET value and found that April of 1862, 1863 and 1864 were all 8.8 C. This was also the case for August of 1752, 1753 and 1754 which were all 15.7 C. There were fairly frequent cases of four or even five consecutive years with similar CET values before 1720 but most of those were all rounded to nearest 0.5, so perhaps not as remarkable. For the record, the longest streaks in the Maunder period include eight Novembers all at 6.0 between 1664 and 1671, seven (every September from 1659 to 1665 was 13.0) then two streaks at five, July 1687 to July 1691 inclusive, all of those at 15.5 C, then all of August 1711 to 1715 were at 15.0 C.

Interesting.

Notable how many spring and autumn months are in that particular list.

No January, August nor December since 1950

[Roger J Smith]

It appears that the most recent cases for those three months are a long way back:

 

JAN 1926-1927 __ 4.6

 

AUG 1902-1903 _ 14.3

 

DEC 1908-1909 __ 4.8

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another statistical quirk is that the warmest day of the month was the final day at 16.9C, in a rapidly cooling month like October that's very unusual.

 

Only 5 days in all of August were warmer than the 31st October aswell.

 

It's happened once before, in 1868. The final day was 12.1C and the next warmest was the 5th at 11.7C. The month finished at 8.4C.