Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

GFS Upgrade coming - November 2014


snowking

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

    Thought I would set up a thread for all the model nerds out there (myself included) with a really significant upgrade coming to the GFS just in time for winter.

     

    I won't go too in depth here in terms of each specific change as this is not my area of expertise. You can find a full run down here:

     

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php

     

    The single most significant change will be the horizontal resolution upgrade - we will see things improved from 23km up to 13km (switching at the same time from a Eulerian to a Semi-Lagrangian grid). This should bring things more on a par with the likes of the ECMWF (currently at a resolution of 16km), though the ECMWF itself is due an upgrade later this decade I believe. In addition to this I believe there is also a change due to the data assimilation process, once more designed (after consultation with the ECMWF) to bring the GFS more on a par with it's rivals. In addition to this the high resolution stretch of the operational run will be extended from its current 8 day period (+192) out to 10 days (+240).

     

    There is so much more to it than just this though. For the amateur forecasting community I cannot stress highly enough how significant this upgrade could be. If we bear in mind that up until last year many on here religiously followed the limited area 12km resolution NAE runs for just 48 hours ahead, which covered just the North-East Atlantic. Now take that idea and push it out globally, with many more parameters available completely free of charge. This really could be a game changing moment from that point of view.

     

    There is no concrete date set as yet for this other than some time in November 2014, though I believe the upgraded data will be ready to run in automated forecasts from next month. It will be fascinating to see how this upgrade improves things a we head in to the most eagerly followed time of the year here and we should all bear in mind when analysing runs that we cannot make the same old GFS vs the european runs arguments as before as we are entering totally unchartered waters with this one.

     

    There are also several stratospheric and o-zone improvements which I know will please many too.

     

    I'll try and post as soon as I can find a concrete date for the completion of the upgrade. In the meantime if anyone with more knowledge of the physics of modelling cares to chip in then please feel free to :)

     

    SK

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 25
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    I and a few others had thought that the PRHW14 model which appeared on the model verification graphs was an early taster of the upgraded GFS,but it seems that it was some sort of experiment by one of the programmers,although it is probably related in some way.

     

     

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wd20rt/vsdb/

     

     

    Hopefully the new "bells and whistles" GFS can improve its verification stats against the 

    all-conquering ECM.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    It would be shame to lose those dartboard lows... and the random 06z and pub run madness.

     

    This could be fun. Hopefully they switch it on just as an Easterly is on the cards..

     

    A great sub plot for Winter..

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    Bear in mind that although the model will run at that resolution, the available output will be a bit different from that - currently the output is 0.5 degrees (around 55km), that'll be bought back to 0.25 degrees - which will match the current output of the ECM as well. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Question

    By implementation, does that mean full replacement of the existing GFS or will the implementation involve some form of parallel running?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Briefly asked one of the mets over the pond around this tonight, they are quite excited about the capabilities of the new GFS.

     

    Looks like we have a Battle Royale for Winter, GFS improving layering on the strat for starters.

     

    ECM and GFS also were days out with each other on MJO knock on effects, something that had to be compared to UKMO Control and JMA for a good read.

     

    This is going to be good...

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    implementation dec 9th. hopefully, we will be able to see it running in parallel before that. meteociel usually have parallel gfs upgrade when available. i understand that there is an upgrade on the gefs at the same time.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

    Sylvain has just confirmed to me on twitter that the new gfs will be running in parallel from some point in the next two weeks :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    We'll also be running it :)

    :yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    We'll also be running it :)

    Any timescale? I prefer using the site here, as my never more than basic French skills are not much more than merci, bonjour!, or au revoir! now.  :good:

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    Hot off the press, nicely timed for the new thread. We have the newly upgraded (0.25 degree resolution) GFS parallel runs available to view now, ahead of the official upgrade which is currently planned to be December 9th.

     

    Free chart viewer

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs-update-2014;sess=

     

    Netweather Extra chart viewer

    http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=newgfs;sess=

    :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    There isn't a parellel of the GEFS running currently. 

     

    Maybe just an upgrade to the existing gefs?

     

    • Unification of analysis ensemble with GEFS ensemble
    • Ensemble resolution increase to T574L64
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

     

    Maybe just an upgrade to the existing gefs?

     

    • Unification of analysis ensemble with GEFS ensemble
    • Ensemble resolution increase to T574L64

     

     

    yes cloud but they must surely be running them in parallel before going live.

     

    incidentally, weatherbell stating that new gfs now going live 17th dec.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    :)

     

    Hi Paul, just looking at the UK Max Temperature charts, it seems when the figures get into double digits the temperature is displayed the wrong way round. 12 is displayed as 21, 13 as 31 etc.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    Thanks, it's not that they're backwards, they're just too close together and overlap as the resolution is that much higher. We should get them sorted on Monday :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • 9 months later...
    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Upgraded GEFS taking over in September.

     

    Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

     

     

    These maps show the Z500 géopotentiel and pressure at sea level of each of the 21 scenarios proposed by all GEFS 1. The maps are updated from 6:40, 12:40, 6:40 p.m. ET 0:40. (3 hours later than parallel) This run GEFS Parallel (or GEFSP //) is a test version of the new GEFS that will replace the current GEFS late September 2015. It runs in "parallel" of the former GEFS (hence the name). It has a larger horizontal and vertical resolution and uses the latest GFS model (released in early 2015). Its resolution is 0.5 ° 1.0 ° instead of before. Moreover maturities range from 3 hours to 3 hours up to 192h. It is slightly more efficient than the current GEFS and often repproche more operational GFS. Warning: The control run is totally different operational run / deterministic, since the two runs are made ​​at different resolutions. Furthermore the update of GFS January 2015 has not yet been reflected in GEFS, the modeling can thus seem to be more different.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    • August thunderstorms bring the risk of flooding and disruption

      Any rain should be welcome looking at the parched ground but intense downpours aren't enough. Thunderstorms bring the risk of flash flooding as the rain hits the hard, dry ground. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2022-08-16 06:11:14 Valid: 16/08/2022 0600 - 17/08/2022 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 16TH AUG 2022 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2022-08-15 07:58:06 Valid: 15/08/2022 0600 - 16/08/2022 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 15TH AUGUST 2022 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 1
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...