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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The eighteenth tropical depression of this very busy season has formed about 285 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Some moderately deep convection is persisting near the LLCC, but it isn't particularly well organised. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is affecting 18E and should do so for at least another 24hrs, and as a result, 18E is not expected to strengthen in this time. After this, shear should ease a little bit, allowing some modest intensification. NHC are only forecasting a peak of 45kts however, as the environment isn't expected to ever be particularly favourable. A typical west-northwest to northwest track is expected, so 18E should remain offshore of Mexico.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Convection has built a little closer to the LLCC this morning, and winds have increased to 35kts in association with the system. Thus, 18E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Rachel.

    Despite the convection building a little closer to the LLCC, Rachel is still a lopsided tropical cyclone, with the majority of the the convection sheared to the southwest. Shear could ease a little over the next day or two to allow some modest intensification, however, significant strengthening appears unlikely as shear will rise again in a few days time and the cyclone will begin to traverse cooler waters, which will bring about weakening.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Rachel has strengthened to 45kts. Shear has continued to affect Rachel, displacing the majority of the convection southwest of LLCC. However, shear is still expected to ease, and Rachel is now expected to approach hurricane strength, though if it makes it remains to be seen. If it does, it'll be the 10th named storm in a row to become a hurricane- an impressive run.

    post-1820-0-73564300-1411681374_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Rachel has strengthened overnight, with winds now at 55kts. The storm's structure has changed too. Although convection isn't overly deep anymore, it is now persisting directly over the LLCC, a sign of reducing shear. Rachel also has developed some banding features wrapping around the LLCC, something that has been absent so far. Rachel could become a hurricane over the next day or so, as shear remains low and water warm. Beyond this time, sea temps cool and along track, and shear is set to increase again in 72hrs, which will ultimately bring about Rachel's demise.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Rachel has become the twelfth hurricane of the Eastern Pacific 2014 season. An eye has developed in the very small central dense overcast. Winds have increased to 65kts. Rachel is running out of time to intensify, and is likely near peak.

    A pretty little hurricane!

    post-1820-0-23180400-1411860849_thumb.jp

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Rachel strengthened further overnight, with the eye becoming more distinct. Winds have increased to 75kts. Just recently, the eye has disappeared from satellite imagery, which may be a sign that Rachel has peaked.

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