Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze

[BornFromTheVoid]

The sea ice growth appears to be accelerating now, with NSIDC extent up over 300k on the minimum. including an increase of almost 60k yesterday, while the 5 day trailing average is up 165k on the minimum and 36k up on yesterday.

 

Below is the extent increase (with the 5 day trailing average), between the minimum and September 30th for each year. The same, but for the minimum to October 31st each year is below it.

 

 

 

Extent increases over the last week have been well above recent and long term averages, but temperatures look like warming up relative to average across much of the Arctic during the weekend and early next week, so closer to average sea ice coverage increases may occur next week.

[stewfox]

The sea ice growth appears to be accelerating now, with NSIDC extent up over 300k on the minimum. including an increase of almost 60k yesterday, while the 5 day trailing average is up 165k on the minimum and 36k up on yesterday.

 

Below is the extent increase (with the 5 day trailing average), between the minimum and September 30th for each year. The same, but for the minimum to October 31st each year is below it.

 

 

 

 

Extent increases over the last week have been well above recent and long term averages, but temperatures look like warming up relative to average across much of the Arctic during the weekend and early next week, so closer to average sea ice coverage increases may occur next week.

 

Clearly one would expect quicker recovery rates in the early part of the refreeze season give today's ice pack is so much smaller at the end of the summer cf 1980s 

 

Hope we get some decent volume growth

 

DMI going in the right direction

[reef]

A new thread for the regrowth season of the Arctic sea ice.

 

A few links:

 

IJIS: http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

 

Cryosphere: http://arctic.atmos....edu/cryosphere/

 

PIOMAS: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

 

DMI Temps: http://ocean.dmi.dk/...meant80n.uk.php

 

 

As always please be respectful of other people and avoid bickering.

 

Thanks.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well lets hope for another interesting ice season ahead? Last years 'refreeze' proved fascinating with 'recovery' turning back into loss by winters end....... I wonder if we will see similar this time or will the cold remain locked in the Basin?

[karyo]

What is DMI?

[stewfox]

What is DMI?

 

 

Daily Mean Temperatures in the Arctic 1958 - 2014

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

Some question the validity of the early data but its show updated temps in the high artic 80N and above every day.

 

The graphs are clear and easy to read and you  can see in recent years we have had consistent positive abnormalities in the winter.(click on the various year tabs)

 

Of course its only part of the arctic 90% of the winters ice growth falls outside of this core region. 

 

If your asking what DMI stands for , I spent 20 years researching the subject cant find the answer

[stewfox]

Well lets hope for another interesting ice season ahead? Last years 'refreeze' proved fascinating with 'recovery' turning back into loss by winters end....... I wonder if we will see similar this time or will the cold remain locked in the Basin?

 

Mods can merge the other thread,that was recently set up.

 

I prefer 'refreeze' rather then 'regrowth' but that's just a personal preference.

[Nights King]

Well lets hope for another interesting ice season ahead? Last years 'refreeze' proved fascinating with 'recovery' turning back into loss by winters end....... I wonder if we will see similar this time or will the cold remain locked in the Basin?

 

Was indeed a fascinating spectacle and it should be interesting to see if we can get a further year of recovery under our belt or if we see a 'perfect storm' scenario knocking back the gains.

 

Other particular things enjoy looking for with the re-freeze is an ice bridge between Iceland and Greenland.

 

Also I would prefer the cold repeatedly flooded Uk regardless of ice retention

[reef]

Mods can merge the other thread,that was recently set up.

 

I prefer 'refreeze' rather then 'regrowth' but that's just a personal preference.

I completely missed the other thread. They're now merged

[stewfox]

Well lets hope for another interesting ice season ahead? Last years 'refreeze' proved fascinating with 'recovery' turning back into loss by winters end....... I wonder if we will see similar this time or will the cold remain locked in the Basin?

 

Volume key for me , + things were not as bad as we thought. We are also at present far ahead of 2013 in terms of average ice  thickness

 

------------

August  2014 ice volume showed the second increase since 2008 and just below 2009 levels.

 

We identified a programming error in a routine that interpolates ice concentration data prior to assimilation. The error only affected data from 2010-2013. These data have been reprocessed and are now available as version 2.1. Ice thickness is generally greater in the Beaufort Chukchi Sea area with the largest differences in thickness during May. Differences in ice volume are up to 11% greater in late spring.

------------

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice another  gain today up 72.000 sq km

[Interitus]

 

Daily Mean Temperatures in the Arctic 1958 - 2014

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

Some question the validity of the early data but its show updated temps in the high artic 80N and above every day.

 

The graphs are clear and easy to read and you  can see in recent years we have had consistent positive abnormalities in the winter.(click on the various year tabs)

 

Of course its only part of the arctic 90% of the winters ice growth falls outside of this core region. 

 

If your asking what DMI stands for , I spent 20 years researching the subject cant find the answer

 

 

Danish Meteorological Institute - http://www.dmi.dk/en/about-the-dmi/profile/introduction-to-dmi/

Took about 30 seconds to find 

[stewfox]

Danish Meteorological Institute - http://www.dmi.dk/en/about-the-dmi/profile/introduction-to-dmi/

Took about 30 seconds to find 

 

It was a joke    

 

Note the melt extent in 2014 was the smallest since 2006, resulting in 2014 nearly matching 2013 despite a smaller max in March.

 

https://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2014/10/01/arctic-sea-ice-extent-oct-01-2014-gainloss-for-2014/ 

[BornFromTheVoid]

PIOMAS was updated to the end of August, where we are the joint 6th lowest on record (with 2009).

 

 

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas

[Midlands Ice Age]

BFTV

post deleted

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV

The data being shown is to the end of August!!

Also is the figure you are quoting a prediction?

I would have thought it would have been updated to the end of September not October.

MIA

 

Just a mistake, mean the end of August!

[stewfox]

PIOMAS was updated to the end of August, where we are the joint 6th lowest on record (with 2009).

 

 

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas

 

Or in the top 30 highest on record. 

[keithlucky]

The first map shows Sea ice in  September 2011 the second map shows sea ice in 2014 notice how the thicker ice has grown over the last 3yrs(red areas)

[knocker]

PIOMAS October 2014

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/10/piomas-october-2014.html

[jonboy]

 

PIOMAS October 2014

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/10/piomas-october-2014.html

 

Very interesting to see the large increase in volume for the second year running. As we start to enter the down side of this solar cycle lets hope this is the start of a trend of year on year growth.

[Gray-Wolf]

But , JB, as I'm sure you remember , last Feb/March saw all those gains wiped out by a winter not conducive to growth? If slightly higher summers is to become 'a thing' then why not poor winter gains?

 

In some ways the winter season has begun to become just as fascinating as the summer melt season? With differing patterns leading to different outcomes ( with 'crackopalypse events becoming ever more common in the weak areas of the pack) and gains not necessarily being carried through to the summer season?

 

I'm also not too sure that crackopalypse is such a 'good' thing' either? Once we see another high transit year ( as we surely must) a pack primed for breaking up will move far easier allowing for even greater export through the season?

[jonboy]

 

But , JB, as I'm sure you remember , last Feb/March saw all those gains wiped out by a winter not conducive to growth? If slightly higher summers is to become 'a thing' then why not poor winter gains?

 

In some ways the winter season has begun to become just as fascinating as the summer melt season? With differing patterns leading to different outcomes ( with 'crackopalypse events becoming ever more common in the weak areas of the pack) and gains not necessarily being carried through to the summer season?

 

I'm also not too sure that crackopalypse is such a 'good' thing' either? Once we see another high transit year ( as we surely must) a pack primed for breaking up will move far easier allowing for even greater export through the season?

 

Why must we see another high transit year what are your climatic reasons for this? Anybody reading your post would think we haded gained some 1500km3 of ice which makes an increase in volume of 3200km3 since the low point of 2012 which is remarkable given your comments

I stand by my comment I believe this is a start of a trend and it is solar driven as we enter the downward slope to a very deep solar minimum

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

 

Why must we see another high transit year what are your climatic reasons for this? Anybody reading your post would think we haded gained some 1500km3 of ice which makes an increase in volume of 3200km3 since the low point of 2012 which is remarkable given your comments

I stand by my comment I believe this is a start of a trend and it is solar driven as we enter the downward slope to a very deep solar minimum

 

In what way do you think solar activity will impact the sea ice? I mean, what's the mechanism tying solar activity and sea ice change? Weather patterns? General cooling? Something else?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think maybe he's confusing the tenuous link between low solar and blocking in NW Europe BFTV? I've seen others grab onto a 'regional' impact and expand it globally? I do understand the wish for AGW, and its impacts/predicted impacts, to go away but I feel we need stay within the bounds of reality.

 

As far as I understand the Arctic is still one of the fastest warming places on the planet a.t.m.? As such it seems odd to look forward and see more ice as a result of this warming?

[jonboy]

 

I think maybe he's confusing the tenuous link between low solar and blocking in NW Europe BFTV? I've seen others grab onto a 'regional' impact and expand it globally? I do understand the wish for AGW, and its impacts/predicted impacts, to go away but I feel we need stay within the bounds of reality.

 

As far as I understand the Arctic is still one of the fastest warming places on the planet a.t.m.? As such it seems odd to look forward and see more ice as a result of this warming?

 

How dare you use the third person that is just plain rude