Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze

[Interitus]

But it's still below last year on ijis at the moment.

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice refreeze moves into  1 standard deviiation

Edited October 29, 2014 by keithlucky

[be cause]

Arctic ice refreeze moves into  1 standard deviation

 

 

meaning ???

[mikeworst]

I means that roughly 68%  of the years plotted fall into this band marked as light grey on the graph. That means that at this point 2004 is on a par with 68/100 of all the years used to establish the average extent.

[The PIT]

But it's still below last year on ijis at the moment.

No it's not ont he graph linked 2013 isn't even shown which is bizare. However if you look at the old style chart it's at the same level the light pink line not the dark pink line.

[keithlucky]

This video shows rapid ice growth over a 8  days  period over the north pole

[keithlucky]

In need at the current rate we will soon be up with the 2000s averages before month end remarkable recovery.

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Nearley there back to average levels

[stewfox]

Nearley there back to average levels

 

Pleasing to see the west above the long term average.

 

The DMI arctic temps finally going in the right direction. All is good

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[keithlucky]

Gain of `103,000 sq km sea ice ct 29 2014  MASIE Update – Only Two Regions Without Ice

 

Region 212 days ago End Last 211 Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Last 3 Last 1 Baltic Sea 15,337 0 -15,337 0 0 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bering Sea 697,324 3,342 -693,981 3,342 3,342 2,529 34 34 Central Arctic 3,221,921 3,247,977 26,055 186,927 37,438 26,208 15,357 398 Barents Sea 645,917 240,767 -405,150 123,847 37,884 -22,044 3,248 733 Sea of Okhotsk 853,240 1,635 -851,604 1,635 1,635 1,635 1,635 1,635 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,688,530 266,679 -1,421,852 235,877 192,047 195,890 97,688 3,355 Greenland Sea 603,416 392,606 -210,809 131,289 18,288 -13,060 1,643 3,600 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 85,461 -1,175,443 84,013 43,730 54,735 21,966 3,846 Kara Sea 933,859 793,883 -139,976 721,988 552,635 128,765 19,864 6,799 Laptev Sea 897,845 873,222 -24,623 861,173 662,347 426,557 56,024 7,346 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 808,201 -278,936 354,033 272,011 96,236 61,349 10,905 Chukchi Sea 966,006 509,621 -456,385 228,099 142,341 104,329 64,417 11,947 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 814,719 -38,495 282,487 125,060 78,529 39,464 13,213 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 957,782 -112,663 256,068 172,094 118,163 82,970 39,746                   Northern Hemisphere (Total) 14,805,115 8,997,037 -5,808,077 3,470,778 2,260,853 1,198,474 465,659 103,556                   NH (Average Loss per Day)     -27,397 123,956 161,490 171,211 155,220 103,556

Edited October 30, 2014 by keithlucky

[4wd]

All pretty normal for the  time of year really
I see the Barrow webcam shows new sea ice, however it might come and go due to wind and current for a while yet there.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

[Interitus]

No it's not ont he graph linked 2013 isn't even shown which is bizare. However if you look at the old style chart it's at the same level the light pink line not the dark pink line.

 

According to the data it surpassed 2013 on 26th, my post was from 22nd. But as you say they are very similar.

Edited October 30, 2014 by Interitus

[jonboy]

I don't think we need to nit pick about when ice extent exceeded any particular level of previous years what is important and not model projected is the fact that we have strong ice growth in terms of extent and volume. Clearly we are some way-off levels previously experienced but we had to start somewhere. Lets admire the re growth and hope it long continues.

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't think we need to nit pick about when ice extent exceeded any particular level of previous years what is important and not model projected is the fact that we have strong ice growth in terms of extent and volume. Clearly we are some way-off levels previously experienced but we had to start somewhere. Lets admire the re growth and hope it long continues.

 

Don't you have to take that back a notch or two and say no modelling was done for the 07' or 2012 crashes and so the way the ice relaxes back from such extremes is also not modelled?

 

Why do folk just ignore such a pair of elephants in the room when talking about the Arctic? Straight line graph what the years 95' to 2005 would give as a plot and see where 'drip ,drip' melting should have left us and then compare that to where we are now?

 

How much summer/winter ice does that little experiment show you we ought to have?

 

Thought so.

 

We have seen two summers just as extreme as those which brought us the record lows, just the opposite side of the coin. Have we witnessed recovery on anything like the scale as the losses we saw?

 

Which way would you say the deck is stacked???

Edited October 31, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

 

 

We have seen two summers just as extreme as those which brought us the record lows, just the opposite side of the coin. Have we witnessed recovery on anything like the scale as the losses we saw?

 

Which way would you say the deck is stacked???

 

What we do see is how quickly the arctic can recover from 'death spirals'

 

We don't know if we will get another 'record low' next summer  a value similar to this year or even higher (which could be plausable if we see increasing ice volumes)

 

We do know that hoping for that terminal decline isn't a factor.

Edited October 31, 2014 by stewfox

[knocker]

He's a lad that Wadham.

 

When will Arctic first be sea-ice free? Comparing IPCC AR5 projections & Peter Wadhams public forecasts

 

pic.twitter.com/RY6eSe2uAy

[BornFromTheVoid]

I don't think we need to nit pick about when ice extent exceeded any particular level of previous years what is important and not model projected is the fact that we have strong ice growth in terms of extent and volume. Clearly we are some way-off levels previously experienced but we had to start somewhere. Lets admire the re growth and hope it long continues.

 

You are right that most models didn't project the current sea ice state, given that we're still well below most model projections.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A massive jump of 259.8k on the NSIDC extent puts 2014 up to the highest since 2001.

 

Don't think we've been ranked that high since the end of May last year.

[keithlucky]

 

A massive jump of 259.8k on the NSIDC extent puts 2014 up to the highest since 2001.

 

Don't think we've been ranked that high since the end of May last year.

 

Edited November 4, 2014 by keithlucky

[4wd]

Did the models predict it?

[keithlucky]

Did the models predict it?

No but pretty cold temperatures around Greenland ATM coldest its been for 20yrs.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Did the models predict it?

 

They don't deal in daily variability. It's kind of like asking if the GFS predicted the fluctuation in rainfall rate over a 5 minute period.

 

Besides, 2012 managed to be the highest since 2001 for 12 days in May, so these short term variations don't tell you a whole lot. If we can continue to climb above more years towards xmas, it will start to raise a few eyebrows though.

[Interitus]

 

A massive jump of 259.8k on the NSIDC extent puts 2014 up to the highest since 2001.

 

Don't think we've been ranked that high since the end of May last year.

 

 

Only since 2008 on five day average though.

[keithlucky]

Only since 2008 on five day average though.

Still up with 2001 stands at 9.53043 million sq km. only just behind 2001.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Only since 2008 on five day average though.

 

Indeed. With the 5 day average we're still below 2008, 2005, 2003 and every other year before 2003.

[Gray-Wolf]

Any thoughts on the storm that looks set to enter Bering? Is it likely to end up in the high Arctic and mess with the ice forming in Beaufort?