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Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze


BornFromTheVoid

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Where are you getting the idea that the 'good ice' is on the Atlantic side? Ever map I've seen has shown a strong Beaufort gyre which has pushed the vast majority of multi year ice towards the Pacific side. 

 

arcticictnnowcast.gif

 

Look at the position of the Trans polar drift and the ice in its path? Do you think that the steady loss of this ice through the refreeze will add into the Piomas totals or detract from it ( sure , new ice will replace the ice lost but what thickness will we get in return for the 2.5m ice lost?). The ice over in the Beaufort gyre has the same fate as the ice we see each year over that side of the basin ( how many years have we seen the 'babies arm' over to east Siberia only for it to be gone by July???).

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Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

just noticed that CT NH sea ice area is currently 11th lowest (for the date) since 1979 . The recovery continues ?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Arctic sea ice getting close to 1979 -2000 meanhttp://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

 

I suppose it's also getting close to lowest on record too then?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Yes sad to see sea ice normal at both Poless_daily_extent.png?w=297&h=354n_daily_extent-16.png?w=299&h=356

 

Average overall, but below average in the north, above average in the south, as it's been for most of this year!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

15 December 2014

CryoSat has delivered this year’s map of autumn sea-ice thickness in the Arctic, revealing a small decrease in ice volume. In a new phase for ESA’s ice mission, the measurements can now also be used to help vessels navigate through the north coastal waters of Alaska, for example.

 

Measurements made during October and November show that the volume of Arctic sea ice now stands at about 10 200 cubic km – a small drop compared to last year’s 10 900 cubic km.

 

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/CryoSat/CryoSat_extends_its_reach_on_the_Arctic

 

Good article

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30399079

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

 

Thanks for that Knocks! I'm glad it isn't just me noting the 'odd' behaviour from Fram over the past months?

 

Last winter I'm on record as saying a repeat of 2013 was less likely than us seeing an average weather melt season or a warm one. Those odds must now be even greater against another 'repeat' come this melt season. If not should we not be looking for other reasons behind such an abnormal run? Put it this way what would 08' have looked like if 07's 'perfect melt storm' had repeated that year ( and who would have thought it probable?) but we have just seen similar but of the opposite 'flavour'.

 

Unless we are seeing a 'pattern shift' across the basin then I would again say it would be more 'likely' for us to see an 'average melt season' or a 'warm melt season' than it was to see another year perfect for ice retention ( cool beyond 80n with limited export). Midst all the furor over ice being more resilient it would be unwise to forget  just what the 'average' melt seasons of 2010 and 2012 did to the pack over summer ( never mind what 07's 'perfect melt storm did??) and prepare ourselves for such an outcome. Also be mindful that the study looking at the 07' synoptics spotted a 10 to 20 year cycle to such events with the two before 07' only having a ten year spacing. Does this favour a return to the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic as early as in 2017? How resilient would the post 2010 pack prove against that type of melt season?

 

As it is Fram has picked up export, as shown above, since mid November so I'd be expecting to see the Jan Piomas figure rejoining those from recent years ( as we witnessed last Jan /Feb when the summer volume increases were wiped out by poor ice gain).

 

The next few weeks look to be bringing a spell of tropical air invasion over the Pacific side of the basin ( low forming to the N. of Hawaii) so maybe we will see a double whammy of good export rates and poor ice formation/thickening?  

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

Seems colder than recent years ooop north

evXTxfO.png

Piomass not complying with death spiral predictions
LYut0OA.png

Global Sea Ice seems steadily at or above long term mean, after a slight dip a few years ago.
kVno6pC.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Could you be more precise regarding "nearly the same".

 

I would say that snow cover is marginally higher than 30 years ago too, some excellent gains indeed.. :smiliz19:

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The source of Keith's recent posts. I'm sure the sceptical folk will pick apart such unabashed tabloid style misdirection.

Last Remaining Global Warming Scam Dies

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/12/29/last-remaining-global-warming-scam-dies/

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Any reason for the recent fall in ice extent? Pretty cold over the basin yet we see a big reduction???

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Any reason for the recent fall in ice extent? Pretty cold over the basin yet we see a big reduction???

Where are you getting your figures from as I don't see a big drop

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Where are you getting your figures from as I don't see a big drop

 

A few of the extent measure have shown a drop over the last 3 or 4 days, such as NSIDC dropping 120k since the 25th, and IJIS dropping 30k since the 26th.

 

Getting daily ups and downs like these aren't unusual, but having it sustained over 5 days or more is less common. 2004 only increased by 30k over the last week, while 1999 saw a drop of 160k between the 26th and 30th, so these things do happen every now and then.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Interesting Cryosphere today doesn't show any drop the temps are falling yet other graphs show a drop . Doesn't add up really.

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Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

Cryosphere Today doesn't do extent ..

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Cryosphere Today doesn't do extent ..

Generally speaking they tend to tally up very well. Extent should show more as water sitting on ice would still count towards the total while in area it wouldn't. This shouldn't apply in Winter though.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm struggling to see how KL's Arctic sea ice is at 'record' levels? IJIS extent shows it below 2012,2011 and 2007 for today???

 

Geography tells us that the only way ice can reach 'Record levels', once the basin is iced over, is by extensions into Baffin, Bering ,Okhotsk or into the Atlantic on our side ( This sector being at the end of the Trans-Polar drift and the mouth to Fram could also indicate large losses in progress?) and I do not see above average ice in any of those regions ( all show negative anoms on the C.T. plots for area???)

 

I worry that such unfounded declarations could be 'misleading' to those who look for honest information here?

 

EDIT: 

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

 

The loss of the hard gained multiyear ice over our side of the basin continues with only the ice to the rear of Svalbard to be ejected to put us right back to where we were in the winter of 2012 ( all first year ice over the Atlantic side of the basin). It really does highlight the importance of export in the loss of ice volume, year round, when conditions allow and just what impacts low export can show on ice type/levels/quality?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim365d.gif

 

The above shows ice over the past 12 months.

 

I'd draw your attention to two things;

 

1/ the impact of low/zero export over summer and the damage to the thick ice that the past 2 months has seen over the atlantic side of the basin? it shows what our new 'normal' in-situ melt does from the Russian coast into the centre of the pack also. Imagine todays level of export over that period of in-situ melt and you see why any return to 'average' or 'warm' synoptics over summer, coupled with normal export, is such a danger to ice levels these days.

 

2/ We appear to have a lot less thickening in the central basin compared with last year?

 

With the AO well positive and high temps ringing the basin it appears that slowed thickening and export will continue? Do we think that we are in a position to expect a third year of low export/cool cloudy conditions over the coming melt season? If so what has altered to 'nail on' such an unusual run of 'weather'?

 

For me I feel even stronger in my expecting of an 'average' year over melt season this year. Last year surprised me as I thought the 'odds' against a repeat of 2013 were too high, this year it is more so and so any repeat would have me wondering what has altered the weather patterns? why we have departed from the 'mix' of weather years we used to expect?

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