western pacific Super Typhoon Phanfone

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm 18W has formed well south of Japan and well east of the Philippines. Winds are at 35kts. Conditions are favourable for intensification throughout the next 5 days, with low shear and warm sea temps expected to persist. A generally northwestward track is expected through this time as ridging to the northeast remains in control. 18W is expected to be a significant typhoon southwest of Iwo To in 5 days time.

[knocker]

Tropical Storm Phanfone a potential threat to Japan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Phanfone is steadily intensifying as it heads west-northwest at 13 mph towards the Northern Mariana Islands. Phanfone is expected to be near Category 1 typhoon strength when is passes about 250 miles north of Guam near 18 UTC on Tuesday. The storm is expected to intensify into a major typhoon, possibly a super typhoon, late in the week, and the 00Z Monday run of the GFS model shows the storm coming very close to the coast of Japan this weekend.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2813

[Somerset Squall]

Phanfone has slowly strengthened to 45kts. After lacking convection over the last 24hrs, convection has increased quite considerably over and around the LLCC. Phanfone should continue to strengthen, perhaps rapidly, on the northwesterly track. Phanfone is expected to recurve, but get very close to southern Japan as Knocker has stated.

Edited September 30, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[knocker]

The 12z GFS SS

 

[Somerset Squall]

Phanfone has become a typhoon, with winds of 65kts. JTWC indicate a 125kt peak.

Edited October 1, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[BornFromTheVoid]

Touch and go as to whether this will hit the Japanese Grand Prix on Sunday. The track is shown by the black dot...

 

[knocker]

I see what you mean. On the tropical model

 

[Sainsbo]

Definitely one to watch in my opinion, cloud tops are already touching -80C. Eye looks like it's starting to emerge.

 

#

[Somerset Squall]

Latest advisory from JTWC put Phanfone's winds at 75kts, and they expect a peak of 120kts. I have a feeling that could end up being too low.

[Somerset Squall]

Pinhole eye indicating explosive deepening:

[Somerset Squall]

Phanfone is now a 105kt cat 3 typhoon on the SS scale. Further intensification is likely, as shear remains low for the next day or two, and outflow remains excellent.

[knocker]

The 06z GFS

 

[knocker]

 

Typhoon Phanfone took advantage of light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and very warm ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°F) to intensify into a dangerous Category 4 typhoon early Thursday morning. The typhoon's inner eyewall began collapsing later on Thursday morning as Phanfone entered an eyewall replacement cycle, reducing its intensity to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Once this cycle completes, Phanfone will have the opportunity to re-strengthen, as ocean temperatures will remain near 30°C (86°F) through Friday with light wind shear. Ocean temperatures will cool sharply and wind shear will rise on Saturday as the typhoon approaches Japan, weakening the storm. The models have come into better agreement on the track of Phanfone, but it remains uncertain if the typhoon will hit the main Japanese island of Honshu as the GFS, GFDL, and European models are calling for, or pass just offshore.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2816

[Somerset Squall]

After a peak of 115kts, Phanfone started an eyewall replacment cycle. The eye disppeared from satellite imagery, and winds fell to 110kts. Phanfone looks like it is completing the eyewall replacement as the eye is clearing out again, so some restrengthening is likely:

 

 

 

[knocker]

Midnight GFS

 

[knocker]

Recently from the METO

Typhoon Phanfone heading for Japan

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/typhoon-phanfone-heading-for-japan/

[knocker]

 

Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Phanfone is steaming northwest at 11 mph towards Japan, and is likely to bring that nation serious flooding problems over the weekend. Satellite loops show that Phanfone is a large and well-organized typhoon with a prominent eye and a large area of intense thunderstorms. However, conditions for intensification are no longer as favorable, with wind shear now a high 20 knots on Friday morning. Ocean temperatures remained warm, though, near 30°C (86°F). Ocean temperatures will cool sharply and wind shear will rise further on Saturday as the typhoon approaches Japan, weakening the storm. Our two top models for predicting typhoon tracks, the GFS and European, predicted with their 00Z Friday runs that Phanfone would hit the main Japanese island of Honshu near 18 UTC on Sunday. The Joint Typhoon Warming Center continues to maintain a forecast keeping the core of the storm offshore of Japan, as they believe Phanfone will be unable to penetrate very far westward into the strong upper-level westerly headwinds that will be present over Japan this weekend. Phanfone will be steadily weakening as it approaches Japan, and should be no stronger than a Category 1 storm at its point of closest approach. Heavy rains from Phanfone will arrive in Japan on Saturday, and are likely to bring dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. The Friday morning 06Z run of the GFDL model predicted that Phanfone would dump widespread rains of 8+ inches across much of Japan. One area of particular concern is the Mt. Ontake volcano, which erupted last Saturday, killing 47 and leaving dozens missing. Phanfone's heavy rains will mobilize Mt. Ontake's ash deposits into dangerous mudflows, seriously complicating the search for victims of Japan's deadliest volcanic eruption in 90 year

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2817

[Kiwi]

Wet  for the Grand Prix at Suzuka  then?

 

http://autoweek.com/article/formula-one/typhoon-phanfone-presents-problems-formula-one

[Somerset Squall]

Phanfone's large eye has become better defined, and the typhoon has regained category 4 status on the SS scale, with winds now back at 115kts. Some further slight intensification is possible during the next 24hrs whilst the waters remain warm enough and the poleward venting continues into the mid - lattitude westerlies. Thereafter, much stronger shear and cooler sea temps near Japan will produce weakening and eventually extratropical transition. However, despite the weakening, Phanfone will still impact Japan significantly.

[Somerset Squall]

Phanfone became the season's fourth Super Typhoon overnight, with winds of 130kts, a strong category 4 on the SS scale. Since then, shear has increased, weakening Phanfone back to typhoon status with category 4 120kt winds. The eye remains well defined, but the convection around it is weakening and the bands aren't so tightly wrapped. This is a result of strong shear and cooler sea temps. Phanfone should continue to weaken.

[Somerset Squall]

Phanfone has continued to weaken as it approaches Japan. Winds have fallen to 90kts. The eye is still well defined but the convection is swallowing. The image below shows Phanfone very close to the Japanese coast:

Edited October 5, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

That last post should of read shallowing not swallowing! Lol

Phanfone remained a typhoon has it raced east-northeastwarda across Japan. It is now extratropical well east of Japan.