western pacific Super Typhoon Vongfong

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical storm has formed, about 100 miles northeast of Pohnpei. 19W has winds of 35kts. 19W is expected to take a path similar to Typhoon Phanfone, albeit from a starting point further southeast. Strengthening is expected, as shear should remain low and outflow good. 19W could become quite an intense typhoon, just like Phanfone.

[Somerset Squall]

19W has been given the name Vongfong and has winds of 40kts according to JTWC. The storm has developed a central dense overcast, a sign of a maturing storm. I don't think it will take Vongfong long to become a typhoon.

[Somerset Squall]

Vongfong has become a typhoon with winds of 65kts. The typhoon has a solid central dense overcast with the beginnings of an eye. With shear being low, waters warm and outflow good, there seems little impediment to significant intensification. JTWC are forecasting a peak of 125kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Vongfong has developed a pinhole eye. Winds have increased to 90kts according to JTWC. Further strengthening is expected, and it looks like we could see another Super Typhoon in a few days time as Vongfong tracks northwestwards.

[Somerset Squall]

Vongfong's winds remain at 90kts according to JTWC. Moderate shear has prevented further intensification. This is expected to ease, which should allow Vongfong to finally begin strengthening again. JTWC are still forecasting Vongfong to become a 130kt super typhoon in 48hrs time.

The typhoon will continue pushing west-northwestwards for the next couple of days before an advancing trough re-orients the steering ridge from being to Vongfong's north to being to Vongfong's east. This will induce a northward turn, though the timing of this is uncertain.

Edited October 6, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Sainsbo]

Quite an impressive burst of rapid intensification over night. Eye has propely formed and it almost clear, and the cloud tops are still cooling A solid CDO around the eye, and still time for further intensification. Last update from JTWC had windspeeds at 100kts (115mph), but I'd say it's probably closer to 120kts (140mph) by now.

 

[Somerset Squall]

You were right Sainsbo, winds are now at 120kts according to JTWC. I think we have a real chance of seeing the West Pacific's 3rd cat 5 here (and the world's possible 5th- the others being Gillian in the South Indian Ocean, Halong and Genevieve in the West Pacific, and Marie in the East Pacific). The eye looks perfectly defined on satellite imagery, and there are some very cold cloud tops in the central dense overcast.

Edited October 7, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Wow!

[Sainsbo]

Looks good enough to be a Super Typhoon to me.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Most definitely. JMA has the estimated pressure at 915mb. I think we will have a category 5 on the next JTWC advisory.

[Sainsbo]

135kts (155mph) according to JTWC's latest update, just shy of a Cat. 5, though looking at satellite images it's hard to believe they didn't put it as such on their last advisory.

 

JTWC still expect it to strengthen slightly, and make it to category 5 status with sustained winds of 140kts (160mph). No reason that shouldn't happen, as shear is still quite low, SST's are still very warm and it has excellent outflow. It also looks very symmetrical, so eyewall replacement cycles may not be a problem.

[lorenzo]

898mb on model runs and insanely perfect imagery everywhere on Twitter, it's a beauty.

 

Larger image and source.

 

In fact couldn't resist zooming this one and uploading, row of cells in that outer edge and the perfect eye. Stunning.

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2014 by lorenzo

[Sainsbo]

Fantastic pics.

 

Latest JTWC is crazy. Sustained winds currently at 180mph (155kts), gusting to 220mph, and forecast to reach speeds of 190mph (165kts), gusting to 230mph by tomorrow!

 

Unbelievable!

 

[Liam J]

Looks awesome but b*oody hell it's a beast!!! Is Vongfong forecast to hit land? 

[Sainsbo]

Luckily it isn't expected to hit land for a few days, hopefully as a much weaker storm (though still dangerous).

 

[Liam J]

Imagine the carnage if it hit land gusting over 200mph!! 

[Sainsbo]

It definitely wouldn't be pretty!

 

Luckily that shouldn't be the case like it was this time last year with Haiyan.
 

[Somerset Squall]

Well the West Pacific has certainly woken up with this one. Sustained winds of 155kts is crazy enough, but if it does reach 165kts as forecast then it truly does become a rare beast. It's not often you get tropical cyclones with winds of that speed!

Edited October 7, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Jo Farrow]

Met Office have tweeted that VONGFONG (superb name) now the strongest tropical cyclone globally since Typhoon #Haiyan last November

[knocker]

Impessive

Edited October 7, 2014 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

So that makes 5 supers so far this year? Is that common? Anyone doubting the heating of the upper ocean might look at the globe's storms this year???

 

Has she dropped below 895mb yet? That would push it beyond the strength of Haiyan.......

[Somerset Squall]

Fairly common to get that number of super typhoons in a season GW, though of course we still have a couple months to go so that number may rise further.

As for Vongfong, winds have fallen slightly to 145kts, still a cat 5. It may reintensify slightly in the next 24hrs, dependent on eyewall fluctuations.

Edited October 8, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Vorticity0123]

Vongfong is definitely a beauty... stunning to say the least! Satellite pressure readings have been as low as 870 hPa from CIMSS SSMIS, but the average of several satellite estimates yields a minimum pressure of about 900-905 hPa, which is still indicative of a very strong category 5 tropical cyclone. The satellite surface pressure readings can be found below:

 

CIMSS satellite surface pressure reading from various satellites/techniques. 

 

Of note is that on the last 8 hours or so (as of halfway Oct ), a clear weakening trend can be observed, though Vongfong remains a vigorous cyclone. As noted by Somerset squall, the JTWC has also noted this weakening trend, but they are  indicating that some short-term intensification is still a possibility. 

 

CIMSS MIMIC imagery also shows this weakening, with the eyewall becoming somewhat less distinct (as of 15:00 UTC):

 

CIMSS MIMIC loop of Vongfong. Note that the image auto-updates itself.

 

The red colours indicate a more robust eyewall. Of note is that during the latest few frames, the eyewall 'colour' has turned yellow, especially on the northern and western side. Whether this is the precursor of an eyewall replacement cycle, remains to be seen.

 

Comparison of four intense cyclones

 

At the Wunderground blog from Jeff Masters, there was a nice image comparing some category 5 tropical cyclones of this and previous year (being Genevieve, Haiyan, Rammasun (which was a category 4 tropical cyclone) and Vongfong). The image is indicated below:

 

Infrared satellite recordings of four category 5 tropical cyclones of this and last year. The more white/purple the eyewall is, the colder the cloud tops and the higher they extend in the troposphere, and the stronger the cyclone is. 

 

Note that Haiyan is by far the most impressive category 5 cyclone in this mosaic, with Vongfong trailing behind some. What is also nice to mention is that while Rammasun looks stronger in this imagery than Genevieve, Rammasun itself was a category 4 cyclone and Genevieve a category 5. However, it is possible that Rammasun will be upgraded into a category 5 hurricane in post-storm analysis.

 

To what level does Vongfong's influence reach?

 

Finally, what is also great to look at is the height to which the influence of such cyclone rises. Therefore, a cross-section in wind speed of Vongfong as of 06Z, Oct 8 is given below:

 

Distance-Altitude wind speed cross-section of Vongfong The colours indicate the strength of the wind (measured in knots).

 

Note that the influence of Vongfong reaches up to above the border of the image, which is equal to a pressure level of 100 hPa! Using the barometric height formula, this would yield a height of about 16 km, but given that in a tropical cyclone a lot of complex dynamics take place, this is a rough approximation at best.

 

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_hurricane_wind_scale

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://dutch.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2823

http://www.csgnetwork.com/pressurealtcalc.html

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=&hend=120&sid=19W&ddtg=2014100806&scl=3&sec=7&var=Wndzonτ=0

Edited October 9, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[Liam J]

From NOAA. Stunning.

 

Edited October 9, 2014 by Liam J

[Somerset Squall]

From NOAA. Stunning.

v.jpgv1.png

Those images show Vongfong is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, typical in strong tropical cyclones. Vongfong has lost cat 5 status but is still a 130kt, cat 4 Super Typhoon. Gradual weakening is expected from hereonin as shear values increase as Vongfong swings to the north towards Okinawa. Vongfong will pass very close to the island still as a typhoon in a couple days. Then it looks like Vongfong will affect mainland Japan as a weakening storm. Edited October 9, 2014 by Somerset Squall