Atlantic Storms Autumn 2014

[The PIT]

A major downgrade today and a push further north. A run of the mill autumn storm for Scotland nothing of note elsewhere on this run.

[knocker]

The ECM this morning

 

[Liam J]

Updated Met Office warning for Tuesday. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1413846000

 

Edited October 19, 2014 by Liam J

[The PIT]

GFS 06oz continues the downgrade.Slight movement to the north once more. Scotland still in line and the place to be.

I suspect today may well be the windier day here at least.

Edited October 19, 2014 by The PIT

[vladthemert]

is there still risks for coastal flooding for east coast.  MET has improved warnings up early but wish they would show coastal risks on warnings.   At least its not like few runs back that was one hell off a worry if we faced a 70 mph plus winds in north sea would have caused severe coastal flooding. 

[Cookie]

Nothing more then a windy day for us at the moment but worth keeping an eye on. 

[vladthemert]

there is some strong micro blasts where it ramps up here already got the odd 35 mph gusts.  Even had 1 registered 42.5 mph just now.   Was reading Tony Gilbert's comment he thinks there will be convective element Tuesday morning in the midlands.

[Summer Sun]

A windy afternoon here in Darlington and thats before Gonzalo arrives plenty of sunshine today though with cloud quickly blowing through given the strength of the wind

[Mokidugway]

Some squalls coming through now pretty miserable ....

[The PIT]

Think we 've just experienced the windiest day of the of the next six days. Gonzola designated crisp package remover on the latest run. Met office will probably remove the warnings tomorrow.

[ANYWEATHER]

The models show some very windy if not stormy conditions for a time late Monday into Tuesday on the NMM, for the west and northwest of the uk.....

[hec1]

[Spikecollie]

Just flew into Paris tonight.  A very bumpy flight!  A lovely cloudspotting opportunity...

[cyclonic happiness]

Nyan cat flying over the UK :-P

[Spikecollie]

Nyan cat flying over the UK :-P

Try this afternoon... I was holding the hand of my young seatmate  while trying not to be sick myself

Edited October 19, 2014 by Spikecollie

[stevofunnelcl]

Amazing that Hurricane held on as a hurricane for a while, whilst going over sea temps of less than 10c

Full extra-tropical transition now occured. Last advisory issued by NHC, still with 80mph winds

[vladthemert]

noaa last report as it leaves us..  

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

 

 

lightening wizard has this got a lot of convective potential 55 to 60 mph.   With also 50% risks in tornado activity in yorkshire and humber.  

 

[timeless]

looks like the met office has stopped tracking Gonzalo, had been following its trajectory for a few days but its been removed now.

[Liam J]

A slight increase in wind speeds on the 00z runs with gales or severe gales possible as the wind veers NW'ly, gusts around 50-60mph. The Euro4 model shows very windy conditions. A typical Autumn gale rather than something more extreme as was shown a few days ago. But still with potential to cause some local disruption. 

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2014 by Liam J

[The PIT]

NMM shows a downgrade for North West Scotland from yesterday. Looks like the west coast at the moment will get the highest winds gusting into the sixties early doors. May sneak a fifty out of it here. Still breezy though.

Hit 48 mph yesterday so pretty much the same although there wasn't much rain.

Edited October 20, 2014 by The PIT

[Mapantz]

Met Office warnings updated: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1413846000

[Liam J]

Met Office warnings updated: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1413846000

Yes and they have also increased the max wind gusts expected to 80mph.

[vladthemert]

I wonder if its actually finding fuel to keep up its wind speed a little higher coming over the Atlantic.  Just read Tony Gilbert thoughts says main system will remain a non convective gusts now but there is a post frontal trough may give some convection early hours.

[Mapantz]

Yes and they have also increased the max wind gusts expected to 80mph.

You're in prime position up there Liam.

The NMM3 shows a first batch of southwesterly winds coming in around 11pm, really ramping up around 1 - 2am. Winds drop slightly for time before changing to wnw/nw and ramping up again mid-morning.

It'll be interesting to see your reports.

Meteo Earth's take on things around 1am:

Edited October 20, 2014 by Mapantz

[vladthemert]

You're in prime position up there Liam.

The NMM3 shows a first batch of southwesterly winds coming in around 11pm, really ramping up around 1 - 2am. Winds drop slightly for time before changing to wnw/nw and ramping up again mid-morning.

It'll be interesting to see your reports.

Meteo Earth's take on things around 1am:

Screenshots_2014-10-20-11-46-16.png

 

crikey never realised how bad our light polution is around here.  Though we are moving to led street lights to ease it but think two refineries big chunk.

 

any chance showing it further on please Mapantz would love to see if those red winds maintain to our location. we are the bright blob up from the wash east coast if you not sure location.