north indian ocean bay of ben Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Hudhud

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have started issuing advisories on a system located just northwest of the Andaman Islands, and tagged the system Tropical Cyclone 03B, with winds of 35kts. IMD classify the system as a deep depression and should upgrade the system and give it a name soon. 03B has a small but well defined LLCC, with persistant deep convection and good banding features. Shear is reletively low, outflow is good and waters are warm along track, all factors that at least suggest steady strengthening over the next few days. A west-northwest to northwest track is expected as subtropical ridging to the north remains the primary steering influence. This should bring 03B ashore on the east coast of India near Vishakhapatnam in about 4 days time if the forecast verifies.

[Somerset Squall]

IMD have upgraded the system to Cyclonic storm status and given it the name Hudhud. JTWC have raised the winds to 45kts in their latest advisory. Hudhud is a small, tightly wrapped storm, which seems poised to rapidly intensify, as the environment is highly conducive for intensification, and Hudhud's well organised structure makes it a good candidate for rapid intensification. This is not good news for India. JTWC are quite aggressive with their intensity forecast, bringing Hudhud to category 3 status on the SS scale prior to landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Unexpected moderate easterly shear has prevented rapid intensification of Hudhud. Nevertheless, winds have increased to 65kts. Hudhud now has a central dense overcast and the beginnings of an eye. Futher strengthening is expected prior to landfall near Visakhapatnam.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has eased and Hudhud has strengthened accordingly. Winds are up to 85kts, a cat 2 on the SS scale. Hudhud is expected to reach category 4 strength before landfall; obviously this is a very dangerous forecast to the Visakhapatnam area of India.

[Vorticity0123]

Shear has eased and Hudhud has strengthened accordingly. Winds are up to 85kts, a cat 2 on the SS scale. Hudhud is expected to reach category 4 strength before landfall; obviously this is a very dangerous forecast to the Visakhapatnam area of India.

 

This is indeed becoming a very serious threat for the area near Visakhapatnam. In fact, it looks like Hudhud may be undergoing rapid intensification. The JTWC have upgraded the system to a category 3 hurricane (SSHS) with 105 kt sustained winds. However, CIMSS ADT satellite intensity estimates are currently up to 125 kt, with a very sharp increase in winds during the past 18 hours.

 

CIMSS satellite trend of Hudhud

 

Dvorak satellite imagery (as of 11:30 UTC) also confirm this, showing a well-defined eye surrounded by a very deep, albeit slightly elongated eyewall. This may be the result of the fact that the satellite position is not directly above the cyclone, giving a slightly erroneous impression.

 

Dvorak satellite image of Hudhud.

 

Regardless of further intensification, parts of the eastern coast of India will have to brace themselves for impact by a significant tropical cyclone.

 

Further information about Hudhud can be found in the link below:

 

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf

 

Sources:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0314web.txt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03B/03B_floater.html

[knocker]

Cyclone #Hudhud's eyewall should reach peak force over Vizag within the next hour or so. Loop: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/hudhud14/Hudhud_12Oct14_vsk.gif â€¦

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Hudhud making landfall with 115kt winds (cat 4 on SS scale):

Edited October 12, 2014 by Somerset Squall

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Hudhud is tracking inland and weakening. JTWC have issued their last advisory. Hudhud has killed at least 5 people, though this number may rise. Evacuation efforts seem to have worked quite well as a storm of this strength seemed bound to kill many more than the current toll. The damage to Visakhapatnam and neighbouring areas looks to be quite devastating.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/12/cyclone-hudhud-india-visakhapatnam-five-killed