Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[damianslaw]

Post above - solar cycle energy is roughly similar to where we were 2 years ago and we saw cold conditions through Jan-March period. However, I agree somewhat it is an important factor and it is very noteworthy how the peak period of energy in the last 2 cycles i.e. winter 99/2000 and 2013/2014 has coincided with very mild very wet winters, mind winter 2000/2001 wasn't that mild overall with quite a cold Jan and Feb and a cold end to Dec.

[Ffive]

First post from me for a VERY long time.

 

Been following this Strat-thread for a long time now,some very knowledgeable people on here.

 

Fascinating subject and i,m pleased to see Stratospheric Dynamics being used as a forecasting tool.

About 14 years ago on (Other)weather site......I was very keen to get across the importance of Strat-Dynamics in the overall pattern

of Northern Hemisphere winters.Nobody at the time, gave it much credence(apart from Steve Murr).I think he realized, as I did,that

really, the wintertime polar vortex is the governor.Liken it to a giant flywheel,it gains its energy from the thermal gradient in autumn/winter.Like a flywheel,if you knock it,it will loose energy and slow down,untill it gains MORE energy,and speeds up again.

Keep on knocking it and you will eventually slow it right down......and stop it.

 

I think the classic events that took place in the Stratophere in December 1962,and Jan/Feb 1963 can be used as a benchmark

in Tropospheric/Stratospheric dynamics.In late December 62,and early Jan 63 the polar vortex was a very cold,almost circumpolar

cyclone.(This ties in with what Chionomaniac was saying about the vortex strength)It seems to me, that the kinetic energy that the votex gains,ultimately, can sometimes lead to its own DISTUCTION.The central temperatures of the votex were near to -85C,with a band of westery winds at 10mb sometimes exceeding 200kt.

 

The Major Stratopheric Warming then was quite astounding,and explosive.Around the middle of January,10mb temperatures above Edmonton,Alberta.began a rise.Over five days,the temperature rose 67C.The changes in circulation in Jaunuary and February 1963

extended from the Tropopause to at least 55km.

 

F5

Edited November 30, 2014 by Ffive

[Nick F]

Interesting Interview with Judah Cohen, question 19 towards the bottom, with regards to his concerns with the 'unexpected' development of the polar low over NW Asia recently, stopping the expansion of the Siberian High and interfering with any further WAFz and weakening of the polar vortex:

 

http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1

Edited November 30, 2014 by Nick F

[snow mad]

Interesting Interview with Judah Cohen, question 19 towards the bottom, with regards to his concerns with the 'unexpected' development of the polar low over NW Asia recently, stopping the expansion of the Siberian High and interfering with any further WAFz and weakening of the polar vortex:

 

http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1

It would be a shame to have a high SAI for it to be ruined by unusual Synoptics maybe Chio can shed a bit more light on this worriying development?

[KyleHenry]

A quick glance at Ozone concentrations

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/NH.html

Dobson Units showing increased concentration and highest levels so far this winter season from the 24th November. Locating from Alaska, Bering Sea into Eastern Russia.

UV rad is not getting past this build up at the 1 hPa level.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

Patiently waiting for next waves in Stratosphere to show in the mean time, the forecasted MJO into phase 7 and possible 8 this year has superb timing.

A fighting chance is better than none before the big event shows and the Strat pulls the flusher.

[bluearmy]

Week 2 gfs from the 00z run relocates the upper vortex completely to Asian side.

that would be a good way to enter the second half of December (as long as it wasn't part of a general tooing and froing of the whole thing as that would just lead to loads of energy in the Atlantic)

[shaky]

Week 2 gfs from the 00z run relocates the upper vortex completely to Asian side.

that would be a good way to enter the second half of December (as long as it wasn't part of a general tooing and froing of the whole thing as that would just lead to loads of energy in the Atlantic)

on the other hand ecm this morning looks like taking that vortex back west towards the greenland area at 240 hours! ! Hope it wrong!!

[bluearmy]

on the other hand ecm this morning looks like taking that vortex back west towards the greenland area at 240 hours! ! Hope it wrong!!

Hence my comment in parenthesis!

I'm not overly concerned because once we get another strong wave attack, the upper vortex shouldn't be strong enough to withstand it. Who knows, going back and forth may well be the upper strat vortex responding to trop forcing rather than the other way around.

[MattH]

The 12Z ECM from the Berlin site maintains what has been in evidence for some time now and that is after such strong wave 1 activity through November to obviously disrupt the strat vortex the 'attacks' are taking a back seat for a short while. I mentioned in a tweet yesterday ( https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/539147348862304256 ) that depending on what happens with the MJO could well be very important as to how the 2nd half of December progresses. I know Chino (Ed) and Lorenzo (Tony) have highlighted this as well in various threads. If we can get the MJO around to phase 7 and 8, especially with an amplitude >1 then we could be on to something later in the month.

 

Note on the phase 8 reanalysis image in particular how there is a strong signal for -ve heights to the NE of the UK, whilst pressure rises to the NW. This is something I'm looking for within the long term. There is a shift in the position of the strat vortex too towards Siberia as the following 3 images highlight...

 

Nothing is set in stone clearly at this time frame, but there have been signs of this within the troposphere as well, primarily from the GFS as the following chart for example...

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif

 

If you can clear the main PV, or a section of it away from Greenland and NE Canada, then in my experience, you're progressing down the right road to get some winter synoptics. We all know the 'damage' the vortex can do if it sets up shop there, so having it to the north and north-east of the UK, rather than to the NW (in general) is never a bad thing. Yeah, it won't promote a Scandinavia high, but for longevity it's about getting blocking to the NW over and around Greenland and again that is the overal thought for this winter, not for it to be a Scandinavia high type winter, but for blocking to be in evidence over Greenland and surrounding areas with time.

 

So, on the 1st day of December a tentative prediction is that during the second half of the month, especially if we get the MJO around to phase 7 and 8, is for any part of the PV to drift towards Siberia and then allow for height rises over Greenland and to the NW, this is sort of in-keeping with the analogs within Tony and Ed's winter forecast for example. All to play for, but once again it's a waiting game and patience is required and I have a feeling, yes not very scientific I know, but I have a feeling the synoptic pattern could change suddenly later in December. As for a full-blown SSW that is looking increasingly as though it won't happen until late December at the earliest, which isn't nothing new anyway really so for those hoping that we'll get a SSW within the next week or two with a complete breakdown of the PV by mid to late December may be disappointed, but there's still a lot to play for in a winter that is starting very differently to this time last year.

 

Regards, Matt.

[summer blizzard]

I like what i see, hopefully some lag before further disruption..

 

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_30_2014_merra.pdf

[KyleHenry]

Typhoon Hagupit is closely following track of Typhoon Bopha Nov /Dec 2012. Temps at cloud tops is showing approx -80 C

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2012/Tropical-Depression-Bopha.

It's the moisture waves emitted from a Cat 5 through entire N Pacific which intrigue me. A huge wake is created behind Typhoon churning entire atmosphere in separate waves.

Within days of Bopha recurving North and dissipating. A Stratospheric SSW shows in a MT event 14 days later.

IMG_1377.JPG http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/sudden-stratospheric-warming-event.html?m=1

The wave at 10 hPa level begins in the Atlantic Equator area, then progresses over Sahara/ Middle East regions before rapid SSW in E Asian region.

MT event surface during MJO phase 4/5 as we are now in.

MJO is the stronger influence but a Cat 5 typhoon is the nitro.

Something to compare observe for this next few weeks. It wasn't until Feb/March 2013 before UK was enveloped in cold Eastern air mass.

Edited December 3, 2014 by KyleHenry

[sebastiaan1973]

Finally the intense low pressure system in NW Asia seems to disappear and high pressure is building up in Siberia.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

From a Cohen interview in the Washington Post.

[in our methodology linking Eurasian snow cover and the eastern U.S. winter outlook], we have identified six steps in a cycle starting with the advance of the October Eurasian snow cover and ending with the winter AO. These steps happen sequentially over the course of several months. We are still early in the cycle, at step two, which is the buildup of a strong and expansive Siberian high following the extensive snow cover from this past October. I wouldn’t say that the hand-off from the snow cover to the atmosphere has been fumbled but rather bobbled. A deep polar low has taken residence across northwestern Asia and Barents–Kara seas (B-K) region that has not allowed the Siberian high to expand northward that is optimal for wave driving necessary to break down the stratospheric polar vortex. Somewhat ironically sea ice in the region has been running at or above normal this fall, which is very different from what we have observed over the recent past where the largest winter sea ice deficits have been in in the B-K region.

 

In a recent review article on the possible link between Arctic amplification [more climate warming in the Arctic compared to lower latitudes] and extreme weather, my co-authors and myself hypothesized that high Eurasian snow cover and low B-K sea ice can constructively interfere to weaken the polar vortex. The relatively high sea ice in the B-K this year is more hospitable for low pressure. Therefore, at least in my opinion, snow cover is on its own in forcing a weakening of the polar vortex this winter [which could cause pieces of it to break off, resulting in outbreaks of frigid air over the eastern U.S. and Europe].

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/

[feb1991blizzard]

Is this the start of something or just one false run, given the GFS sending the MJO on its merry way and the ECM stalling it in phase 7, we really need to see how this evolves before making cast iron judgements just yet.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014120306&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

 

EDIT:

 

MJO Neutral on ECM latest run.

 

 

 

GFS run still more active and the UKMO looks like it could go the same way.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Finally the intense low pressure system in NW Asia seems to disappear and high pressure is building up in Siberia.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

From a Cohen interview in the Washington Post.

[in our methodology linking Eurasian snow cover and the eastern U.S. winter outlook], we have identified six steps in a cycle starting with the advance of the October Eurasian snow cover and ending with the winter AO. These steps happen sequentially over the course of several months. We are still early in the cycle, at step two, which is the buildup of a strong and expansive Siberian high following the extensive snow cover from this past October. I wouldn’t say that the hand-off from the snow cover to the atmosphere has been fumbled but rather bobbled. A deep polar low has taken residence across northwestern Asia and Barents–Kara seas (B-K) region that has not allowed the Siberian high to expand northward that is optimal for wave driving necessary to break down the stratospheric polar vortex. Somewhat ironically sea ice in the region has been running at or above normal this fall, which is very different from what we have observed over the recent past where the largest winter sea ice deficits have been in in the B-K region.

In a recent review article on the possible link between Arctic amplification [more climate warming in the Arctic compared to lower latitudes] and extreme weather, my co-authors and myself hypothesized that high Eurasian snow cover and low B-K sea ice can constructively interfere to weaken the polar vortex. The relatively high sea ice in the B-K this year is more hospitable for low pressure. Therefore, at least in my opinion, snow cover is on its own in forcing a weakening of the polar vortex this winter [which could cause pieces of it to break off, resulting in outbreaks of frigid air over the eastern U.S. and Europe].

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/

That's a relief I must say . I would like to just paste this from what Roger J smith has said in the winter thread hope he doesn't mind.

("The cut-off high (surface and upper level) over far northern Russia and adjacent Arctic Ocean (1054 mb, 82N 95E) is very unusual. An inspection of same date maps in the wetterzentrale archives (1871 to 2013) shows only four cases where a high stronger than 1030 mb was located north of 70N in that general area. Four cases include 1916, 1928, 1946, and 1966. The 1946 case led to a similar looking strong high on 6-7 Dec which then sank southwest into Russia.

Although there were a few weak analogues this particular case is still 15-20 mb stronger and is thus outside the general range of normal atmospheric variability. A singularity. We have already seen another very unusual situation in eastern North America about ten days back with the massive snow squall regime. One wonders what other singularity features this winter may have in store.

Although the near term is locked into cold zonal patterns for Britain and Ireland, there could be a rather fast transition to northern blocking as models may not have a very firm handle on where this super-strong blocking high drifts. The 00z (and previous) model consensus was that it would just weaken in place and feed across the pole to build up a Greenland high, but it is conceivable that a stronger feature will remain in place and drift towards northern Scandinavia in ten to fifteen days. Once the deep low passes around the 9th-10th, the door might open for very cold air to surge south(west) towards you. A placid and rather mild looking circulation pattern developing over west-central North America would support this development by anchoring ridges at about 110W and 40W as well as 30-50E.

However, other evolutions are possible and the solution may be continued cold zonality or a weak return to milder for a while. It seems likely that with this massive blocking in place at very high latitudes, the winter is very unlikely to pass without a significant cold outbreak towards Western Europe .")

In my very basic understanding what this does with the low pressure lifting out of the area that's caused concern is it enables the massive SAI to resume its feedback propegation again , so it really just delayed the feedback mechanisms somewhat .

Once this high pressure can reassert itself over Siberia and link up with the polar high then there's nothing to really stop cold air heading Southwest over Europe .

With the return of high pressure over Siberia it will also aid wave activity again so once the vortex begins to take another hit maybe in the 2 wk frame ? Then we should start to see things move again , so maybe look for vortex disruption occur toward the 17/18th of dec?

But a significant warming not occurring untill early January ?

Remeber a SSW is the holy grail if looking for complete vortex destruction , but with the other background signals so widely talked about this year (won't mention them now as covered in many winter forecasts ) we can attain a disrupted vortex with relative ease as we saw during November , which although doesn't guarentee cold , does given the fact we are now in winter give us a much better chance than we had Nov . So watch for the March west of cold through Europe around the 17/18 of December ?

Edited December 3, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[bradymk]

Quite a big warming at the end of the 6z GFS, hopefully this starts to come closer to ECM range next few days.

[karyo]

Quite a big warming at the end of the 6z GFS, hopefully this starts to come closer to ECM range next few days.

It looks nice but we have to be careful as the 6z is the most likely to give a good warming which doesn't continue in the 12z.

 

Unfortunately, we have no GFS P for a few days to see if this warming is supported.

 

Karyo

 

Edit: I've just read Nick F's post on the Model thread saying that the models are now killing this current MJO wave when we were hoping for it to reach phase 8 and encourage a stratospheric warming. Can the stratospheric warming happen without the MJO support and if not how many weeks are we likely to waste until the MJO gets a move on again?

Edited December 3, 2014 by karyo

[LomondSnowstorm]

It looks nice but we have to be careful as the 6z is the most likely to give a good warming which doesn't continue in the 12z.

 

Unfortunately, we have no GFS P for a few days to see if this warming is supported.

 

Karyo

 

Edit: I've just read Nick F's post on the Model thread saying that the models are now killing this current MJO wave when we were hoping for it to reach phase 8 and encourage a stratospheric warming. Can the stratospheric warming happen without the MJO support and if not how many weeks are we likely to waste until the MJO gets a move on again?

I believe we can, but it certainly helps to get the MJO into phase 6 and, ideally, beyond. 

Some similarities with 84/85 in the MJO, when the MJO stalled at phase 4, wheeled about no man's land for a while, before eventually emerging in 5-6, although it never managed to get into the favourable 7-8-1 phases until after the New Year SSW:

The lead dependent climatology adjusted forecasts still take the MJO into phase 7, and thus far the models have underestimated the strength and speed of its progression (although it will almost certainly slow down and stall somewhat as it gets into the western hemisphere) but even if it does fail it looks as though any reemergence will be around phase 5-6 and will have another go at getting through phase 7 later in the month:

[feb1991blizzard]

The warming at 1mb on the 6z progresses nicely on the 12z GFS, again I would urge caution until we get agreement on where the MJO is going but good to see all the same, No point posting the link as it disappears or changes on the next run.

[bluearmy]

Whilst a strong MJO is the right phase would no doubt help the cause re wave breaking etc, i don't see it as the be all and end all of the strat development.

We currently see warmings consistently modelled in week 2 Gfs output so I would expect this to become the story as we head Intio mid month. Should be coming into range of Berlin output by the end of the weekend. Could do with some upper warming to interfere with the predicted uptick in zonal flow.

Edited December 3, 2014 by bluearmy

[Snowman.]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014120312/NH_HGT_10mb_384.gif

 

GFS starting to sniff out some potential here.

[feb1991blizzard]

Whilst a strong MJO is the right phase would no doubt help the cause re wave breaking etc, i don't see it as the be all and end all of the strat development.

We currently see warmings consistently modelled in week 2 Gfs output so I would expect this to become the story as we head Intio mid month. Should be coming into range of Berlin output by the end of the weekend. Could do with some upper warming to interfere with the predicted uptick in zonal flow.

 

Yes, that's the point though, because the ECM is handling the MJO differently, it may also be modelling other areas differently so would want to see agreement almost as a calibration that the GFS FI charts are handling the strat correctly and that a significant warming will occur in mid - late December.

[Recretos]

Just to let you know, I now have a source to JMA Global spectral model data, which I will start plotting when/if this current warming gets into its range (264h).

It has output up to 10mb, which is enough for basic monitoring.

Otherwise the model has configuration 0.18° (TL959), with 100 vertical levels and the model top at 0.01mb. So it is quite on the level of ECM, and has a very good configuration as far as strat monitoring is concerned. Will be interesting to see how it performs. The testing I did for 240h, has it very similar to ECM Berlin output, so it does appear to be quite decent for now in these "peaceful" days.

As far as models go, the more the merier.

Regards

[bluearmy]

Yes, that's the point though, because the ECM is handling the MJO differently, it may also be modelling other areas differently so would want to see agreement almost as a calibration that the GFS FI charts are handling the strat correctly and that a significant warming will occur in mid - late December.

Looking at yesterday's day 10 12z runs together doesn't show many differences 30 hpa and above though. All I'm saying is don't over state the MJO in respect of what evolves. It's not the silver bullet here.

Edited December 3, 2014 by bluearmy

[Nouska]

Looking at yesterday's day 10 12z runs together doesn't show many differences 30 hpa and above though. All I'm saying is don't over state the MJO in respect of what evolves. It's not the silver bullet here.

 

Would agree with this. I've spent a lot of time looking through archives of various teleconnectors and it is almost impossible to see any pattern that stands out as being even remotely conclusive.

 

The MJO high amplitudes under discussion, by themselves, have no recurring theme as far as I can see. some random examples of these phases in high amplitude for December/January.....first against then for.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

The two seventies cold winters more probably a result of the Canadian warming rather than MJO infuences.

 

Archives used.

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

 

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag.list.htm

[Vorticity0123]

Typhoon Hagupit is closely following track of Typhoon Bopha Nov /Dec 2012. Temps at cloud tops is showing approx -80 C

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2012/Tropical-Depression-Bopha.

It's the moisture waves emitted from a Cat 5 through entire N Pacific which intrigue me. A huge wake is created behind Typhoon churning entire atmosphere in separate waves.

Within days of Bopha recurving North and dissipating. A Stratospheric SSW shows in a MT event 14 days later.

IMG_1377.JPG http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/sudden-stratospheric-warming-event.html?m=1

The wave at 10 hPa level begins in the Atlantic Equator area, then progresses over Sahara/ Middle East regions before rapid SSW in E Asian region.

MT event surface during MJO phase 4/5 as we are now in.

MJO is the stronger influence but a Cat 5 typhoon is the nitro.

Something to compare observe for this next few weeks. It wasn't until Feb/March 2013 before UK was enveloped in cold Eastern air mass.

 

Interesting way of thinking, seems to be quite a new, not well-understood (or unknown) part of science (tropical cyclone-stratosphere interactions). Reading through some articles suggested it could be related to gravity waves being emitted from the tropical cyclones vertically upward into the stratosphere. Here are some links to articles about this:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/95RG02097/abstract (stratosphere-troposphere exchange)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/92JD01679/abstract (evidence for gravity waves being emitted by TC's)

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682614001667 (Gravity wave analysis at tropical cyclone Mahasen)

 

If one looks at the latest cross section from the COAMPS-TC model (which can be found here), one can see that the cyclone does indeed exert influence very close to the stratosphere, up to about 150 hPa height. During the past few hours, the cyclone has bombed up to a category four cyclone with 130 kt winds. The JTWC is expecting the cyclone to become even stronger, reaching 160 kt winds at its peak intensity. Unfortunately, the Philippines are possibly in the line of the track of Hagupit, probably the same area as Haiyan last year is going to be hit. To go not too far out of subject, more information can be found here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81931-super-typhoon-hagupit/#entry3080170.

 

Typhoon Nuri from earlier this year probably influenced the tropospheric circulation quite a bit, but i am uncertain if this also applies to the stratosphere. A source for doubt, though, is that Haiyan from previous year did not induce a SSW, though it might have contributed to some kind of wave activity (perhaps this can be verified by using the MERRA dataset?).

 

To try to make a kind of a bridge (and hypothesis) on the processes: it is becoming evident that tropical cyclones can emit gravity waves up into the stratosphere (especially the more intense ones). Furthermore, there also seems to be a link between these gravity waves and stratospheric wave activity (an article about this can be found here) What that link is, or whether it exists at all, is still up to debate, but an interesting part of research nontheless.

 

Sources:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81931-super-typhoon-hagupit/#entry3080170

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/95RG02097/abstract

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/92JD01679/abstract

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682614001667

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682611000733

Edited December 3, 2014 by Vorticity0123