Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[JeffC]

I wouldnt worry over it too much for now.

 

Since this thread is the best around for the stratosphere, I cant help myself not to post 3D animations of 4 SSWs that I have made. This layout includes: 3D is the isosurface of a certain temperature (written on the bottom, usually -45C), the bottom level is 150mb geopotential height, and the middle layer is 30mb geopotential height. This is layout version 1. In the version 1.2 I will include the heart of the vortex. But lets leave that for another time.

It is nicely seen how over the Atlantic, downward warmings really "ignite" tropospheric ridging with some delay, and how it cuts into the troposphere.

 

I made the layout as a preset, so once I tweak it, I can just put in any data, and simulate any SSW since 1950s, or as far as the datasets go.

https://db.tt/lZ0gAOWD

https://db.tt/co8AorvK

https://db.tt/t5PZ9bO2

https://db.tt/y3BvBQSL

 

And some other graphics I made today. Usually everything can be found on twitter where I stared posting a bit more recently. 

 

  

 

 

 

Regards

Too popular for your own good Recretos - drop box 509 - This account's public links are generating too much traffic and have been temporarily disabled!

 

I have to say I think your 3 D representations of the Polar Vortex are worthy of the Turner Prize!!

[Skin]

Too popular for your own good Recretos - drop box 509 - This account's public links are generating too much traffic and have been temporarily disabled!

 

I have to say I think your 3 D representations of the Polar Vortex are worthy of the Turner Prize!!

Yeah i 2nd that. the 3D models are unreal and unique to this thread. I hope you are patenting  your software. 

[Mr_Pessimistic]

I wouldnt worry over it too much for now.

 

Since this thread is the best around for the stratosphere, I cant help myself not to post 3D animations of 4 SSWs that I have made. This layout includes: 3D is the isosurface of a certain temperature (written on the bottom, usually -45C), the bottom level is 150mb geopotential height, and the middle layer is 30mb geopotential height. This is layout version 1. In the version 1.2 I will include the heart of the vortex. But lets leave that for another time.

It is nicely seen how over the Atlantic, downward warmings really "ignite" tropospheric ridging with some delay, and how it cuts into the troposphere.

 

I made the layout as a preset, so once I tweak it, I can just put in any data, and simulate any SSW since 1950s, or as far as the datasets go. https://db.tt/lZ0gAOWD

https://db.tt/co8AorvK

https://db.tt/t5PZ9bO2

https://db.tt/y3BvBQSL

 

And some other graphics I made today. Usually everything can be found on twitter where I stared posting a bit more recently. 

 

  

 

 

 

Regards

I wouldnt worry over it too much for now.

 

Since this thread is the best around for the stratosphere, I cant help myself not to post 3D animations of 4 SSWs that I have made. This layout includes: 3D is the isosurface of a certain temperature (written on the bottom, usually -45C), the bottom level is 150mb geopotential height, and the middle layer is 30mb geopotential height. This is layout version 1. In the version 1.2 I will include the heart of the vortex. But lets leave that for another time.

It is nicely seen how over the Atlantic, downward warmings really "ignite" tropospheric ridging with some delay, and how it cuts into the troposphere.

 

I made the layout as a preset, so once I tweak it, I can just put in any data, and simulate any SSW since 1950s, or as far as the datasets go. https://db.tt/lZ0gAOWD

https://db.tt/co8AorvK

https://db.tt/t5PZ9bO2

https://db.tt/y3BvBQSL

 

And some other graphics I made today. Usually everything can be found on twitter where I stared posting a bit more recently. 

 

  

 

 

 

Regards

I must admit (being a computer nerd myself) when I saw the 3d images you plotted the other day of the strat/pv, I was impressed, it makes the whole subject that bit easier to visualise (for me anyway).

Now waiting for dropbox to removed its restrictions on the links you posted, but I think I may be waiting a while!

Anyway, well done chaps, a great thread as always, looking forward to the near future, ive a feeling its all about to get moving over the next couple of weeks, let's hope any warmings are strong enough and positioned well enough to smash that annoyingly persistent lobe of pv far way from its current and usual home!!

[Recretos]

A test upload to youtube.  It is the todays 12z GFS from. In color is the downward propagating warming, with the isosurface set at -45°C, and the color indicating the height. In Cyan color is the polar vortex core, set at -82°C.You can see how the core of the vortex re-strengthens before being surrounded by the warming, when it starts shrinking. I call it the heart of the vortex. Enjoy.

 

http://youtu.be/BPkJRJdkZ90

 

Added is the 09 SSW uploaded to youtube, so you can have a feeling how it looks. Notice how the warming cuts into the troposphere (bottom layer @150mb), creating the "fat" ridge towards Greenland.

http://youtu.be/Mknim3Luuo8

 

I will upload to youtube from now on.

 

Regards

 

Edit: Adding 12z JMA, which is onto "it". Lets hope ECM follows. 

 

[picog]

Thanks Recretos. Loved the animation of the 009 SSW!

[Gavin Hannah]

Oooh, some more of the 09 this year please.  Looks amazing though and very informative and kind of allows you to get a better look at the data rather than trying to read it off of a chart.

[PolarWarsaw]

All I can say Recretos is, wow! My gut feelings are that we should enjoy your plottings and posts as much as possible, as something tells me the same people who were watching and reading GP's posts a few years back may be hovering over this thread and looking to hire somebody further down the line! Very interesting, fascinating and complex all at the same time. It's a privelege to have you here...

[sebastiaan1973]

I just can't help it. This song keeps coming in my mind. www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeZZr_p6vB8

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Courtesy of Matt Hugo on twitter

 

Strat warming event is getting nearer now at 288hr, impressive by 384hr & also lowering as evident at 5mb.

 

[Recretos]

All I can say Recretos is, wow! My gut feelings are that we should enjoy your plottings and posts as much as possible, as something tells me the same people who were watching and reading GP's posts a few years back may be hovering over this thread and looking to hire somebody further down the line! Very interesting, fascinating and complex all at the same time. It's a privelege to have you here...

 

Thanks, but I wouldnt worry about that if I were you, because I am just an amateur/enthusiast like most people here. I have no meteo education whatsoever, and I had physics only 2 years in elementary school. So dont worry, nobody will hire me.  

[Nouska]

Thanks, but I wouldnt worry about that if I were you, because I am just an amateur/enthusiast like most people here. I have no meteo education whatsoever, and I had physics only 2 years in elementary school. So dont worry, nobody will hire me.

 

The internet is a wonderful showcase for those whose exceptional gifts and talent are not well reflected in educational attainments on a CV.

[joggs]

Good we'll keep hold of you on here Recretos!.

[Recretos]

Thanks for the support guys, I am totally happy to write for you and to debate about this phenomenal topic.

Here is a new type of graphic I was working on: ENS members by time:

[feb1991blizzard]

Thanks for the support guys, I am totally happy to write for you and to debate about this phenomenal topic.

Here is a new type of graphic I was working on: ENS members by time:

 

So some members going for a technical SSW around 288 then, that's if ive read the chart right.

 

 

EDIT   :   Idiot me, I checked that over and over again thinking that it would be way earlier than expected and the one thing I didn't look at was the numbers, just checked the colours thinking white was 0 m/s zonal wind speed!!!

[chionomaniac]

Thanks, but I wouldnt worry about that if I were you, because I am just an amateur/enthusiast like most people here. I have no meteo education whatsoever, and I had physics only 2 years in elementary school. So dont worry, nobody will hire me.

Well if I was in a position to, I would.

 

I think that there a few similar to you out there Recretos, that even though they have no formal meteorology education, they could run rings around some that do, in certain areas of the profession...... You are a wonderful asset to this forum.

 

 

(and not talking about the meterologists who do post on here)

[Recretos]

So some members going for a technical SSW around 288 then, that's if ive read the chart right.

 

Nope, the scale is from 25 to 54

 

Well if I was in a position to, I would.

 

I think that there a few similar to you out there Recretos, that even though they have no formal meteorology education, they could run rings around some that do, in certain areas of the profession...... You are a wonderful asset to this forum.

 

 

Well, Its all about the love for your hobby. If you like doing what you do, there is almost no limit to what you can learn in this day and age of the internet era. Tho I also emphasise as much practice as possible, not just theory.

 

GEFS zonal wind mean indicating we might perhaps need a new wave phase to end it.

 

 

[Snowy L]

GFS has very quickly changed its tune regarding NW Eurasia heights. Looking increasingly likely that low pressure will move into West Russia and disrupt any wave breaking. Aleutian low signal is becoming a bit weak too. Might have to wait a bit longer for that SSW, maybe mid-late January.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

[bluearmy]

Irrespective of the rights or wrongs of your statements snowy, I would be cautious about deriving too much from operational runs in the 6/10 day timeframe

More relevant is Andrew's statement yesterday re the renewal of zonal flow after it drops on the GEFS. Given the state of the trop vortex, I wonder if any initial drop in zonal flow could do a fair amount of damage in the trop if the effects of the drop off high up are felt low down.

[feb1991blizzard]

Im starting to have doubts about this warming now.

 

 

 

I was always hopeful that as long as the warming at 1mb continued it would eventually propagate, however, even that seems to be running out of steam just as its about to dislodge the vortex and will need reinforcement.

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121118&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=348

 

 

If we compare the10mb chart with the warming in 12-13, the warming then was much stronger.

 

This is what we needed to be seeing surely?

 

 

Forgive me if im wrong as ive only had a few years of watching these charts compared to Ed's 15 and maybe it wont need as bigger warming because the Vortex (strat and trop) was weak going into the winter?, im starting to have grave doubts about this, is there any chance we might get a wave 2 event following up in January?, Isnt a split SSW with a huge ridge over Greenland is the easiest way to a favourable, reliable and more predictable trop pattern?

[Bristle Si]

Are these charts as reliable as the other charts?

Or are they as prone as the others to getting it wrong?

[s4lancia]

Im starting to have doubts about this warming now.

 

 

 

I was always hopeful that as long as the warming at 1mb continued it would eventually propagate, however, even that seems to be running out of steam just as its about to dislodge the vortex and will need reinforcement.

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121118&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=348

 

 

If we compare the10mb chart with the warming in 12-13, the warming then was much stronger.

 

This is what we needed to be seeing surely?

 

 

Forgive me if im wrong as ive only had a few years of watching these charts compared to Ed's 15 and maybe it wont need as bigger warming because the Vortex (strat and trop) was weak going into the winter?, im starting to have grave doubts about this, is there any chance we might get a wave 2 event following up in January?, Isnt a split SSW with a huge ridge over Greenland is the easiest way to a favourable, reliable and more predictable trop pattern?

I agree, in itself not as good as the 12/13 chart but we are heading the right way from what I can see. The 18z chart there is a response to an warming higher up a few days prior and by + 384 that has pepped up again so the likelehood is there would be a further increase in 10mb level temps a few days later on again. 00z continues that theme with a bit more intensity.

[bluearmy]

Agree with that - appears that the intensity of the warming at the very top waned a little (still impressive) though last few runs have brought those v strong positive temps back and begun to push over the pole again.

The original gfs fi warming charts come into range of Berlin tomorrow. Yesterday's run seems to show that it is in broad agreement.

[karyo]

My concern remains that at the 30hpa level no significant warming is showing up.

Karyo

[IDO]

Update WSI:

 

 

  WSI_EuroEnergy
Stratospheric polar vortex will still be in place 26th Dec. No SSW yet, although bias stretch toward Siberia. http://t.co/DN10ZhCbux
12/12/2014 13:11

[mountain shadow]

 

Update WSI:

 

 

  WSI_EuroEnergy

Stratospheric polar vortex will still be in place 26th Dec. No SSW yet, although bias stretch toward Siberia. http://t.co/DN10ZhCbux

12/12/2014 13:11

 

I think that reaffirms where we are to be honest which has been pretty well modelled. A movement of the vortex towards Siberia in late December, no SSW until early January with the impact of that sometime later. In the meantime, its getting what we can from the occasional Polar maritime airstream whilst we await the SSW.