Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[Frozen Britain]

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2009_merra.pdf

 

Yes.

Do we have that for this year?

[SxK]

Do we have that for this year?

 

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2014_merra.pdf

[karyo]

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2014_merra.pdf

What is the GEOS5FP pink line?

[summer blizzard]

What is the GEOS5FP pink line?

 

This year.

[karyo]

This year.

So basically the stratospheric temperatures are cooler than average and also cooler than the same time last year!

[Frozen Britain]

Do we now assume that 2009 had a warmer stratosphere than this year? From the graph, it seems at this point this year the stratosphere is cooling whereas it begin to warm at this point in 2009 holding temperatures up? But up until now, it seems temperatures have not been too dissimilar to 2009.

**EDIT. We have actually had a warmer stratosphere at certain points this autumn than 2009, but on the downside, we are cooler just now, as we speak, than in 2009, but hopefully that Asian warming Karyo picked up on the 6z will help to get us back up to 2009 levels going forward. The chart for this year shows peaks and troughs indicating some warming along the way and not the uniform cooling we would expect during autumn. The 2009 chart shows some periods of substantial warming during that winter. I hope we can do that this year. Someone can feel free to correct me if I've interpreted the graphs wrong.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Frozen Britain

[feb1991blizzard]

No need to panic yet, wave breaking happening although I would rather it be wave 2 than wave 1, the moment you see a tropospheric vortex that has the purples in a massive ball shape is the time to worry, but even then only for the first half of winter.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's early days, and Wave 1 activity looks pretty good for the time of year - the FU berlin strat charts based on yesterday's ECM has it heading towards 400 at 30hpa/60 degrees north, which is significantly above average for the time of year

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/z1n_30_2014_merra.pdf

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=f192&var=ha1&lng=eng

[karyo]

No need to panic yet, wave breaking happening although I would rather it be wave 2 than wave 1, the moment you see a tropospheric vortex that has the purples in a massive ball shape is the time to worry, but even then only for the first half of winter.

Yes, but I'd rather not waste the first part of winter which has the shortest days and weakest sun! That's what made December 2008,2009 and 2010 so special - snow that didn't melt.

[radiohead]

Yes, but I'd rather not waste the first part of winter which has the shortest days and weakest sun! That's what made December 2008,2009 and 2010 so special - snow that didn't melt.

 

And its always nice to get cold/snow in the lead up to and during Christmas. It's just not the same in Jan/Feb.

[Ali1977]

When is it possible to have the first SSW signs?

[Don]

Yes, but I'd rather not waste the first part of winter which has the shortest days and weakest sun! That's what made December 2008,2009 and 2010 so special - snow that didn't melt.

 

After last Winter I would just be happy with a bit of snow at some point!  If we get another 2009/10 type event, then great, but not getting my hopes up just yet.

[skatefan]

It's early days, and Wave 1 activity looks pretty good for the time of year - the FU berlin strat charts based on yesterday's ECM has it heading towards 400 at 30hpa/60 degrees north, which is significantly above average for the time of year

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/z1n_30_2014_merra.pdf

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=f192&var=ha1&lng=eng

 

Hm, Do I read it correct in this graph that the wave-1 activity in oct. last year was also above average (even way above the upper variancy)?

[Duane S.]

Hm, Do I read it correct in this graph that the wave-1 activity in oct. last year was so above average (even way above the upper variancy)?

Wave 1 activity was prevalent throughout a lot of last winter as it often can be in the most zonal of winters. It can help shift the vortex away from the Greenland area and allow blocking to form but there are times it appears to be more of a hindrance.

I always prefer to see wave2 events as these tend to split or break up the vortex, generally speaking a much better thing!

[karyo]

Any updates on the ozone levels in the northern hemisphere?

[feb1991blizzard]

Any updates on the ozone levels in the northern hemisphere?

[karyo]

Thank you! Do you know how this compare to the average for the time of year?

 

I see low concentrations around Greenland, Scandinavia and the UK.

[feb1991blizzard]

Thank you! Do you know how this compare to the average for the time of year?

 

I see low concentrations around Greenland, Scandinavia and the UK.

 

Thank you! Do you know how this compare to the average for the time of year?

 

I see low concentrations around Greenland, Scandinavia and the UK.

Not sure tbh, hence I didn't comment but would imagine the border between blue and green means average and low concentrations would be around where any vortex is.

[Interitus]

NASA ozonewatch site was linked on previous page -

Maps - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/monthly/NH.html

Data - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/NH.html

[karyo]

There was a post in the Bardarbunga eruption thread a few weeks ago saying that the continuous eruption in Iceland will lead to much greater level of ozone in the northern hemisphere but looking at the links above it seems it was wishful thinking.

 

The 12z gfs downgrades even the minor warmings that were evident in previous runs.

 

Karyo

Edited October 28, 2014 by karyo

[feb1991blizzard]

Temperatures down below that -80c mark at 10mb on latest GFS runs now, warmings seem to have downgraded or got stuck too far in FI lately.

Edited October 29, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[ukpaul]

That's not the case, look at the next 72 hours for example. 

[Interitus]

No need to panic yet, wave breaking happening although I would rather it be wave 2 than wave 1

 

Probably to be expected, according to Holton and Tan easterly QBO tends to favour wave 1 in early winter, westerly QBO favours wave 2 in late winter

[joggs]

Dont suppose any of the top dogs on here are prepared to have a friendly punt as to how they see the strat panning out this winter?

Taking all variables into account.Cheers.

[karyo]

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2014_merra.pdf

At least the current temperatures are back to average.