NOAA Winter outlook

[knocker]

Another warm winter likely for western U.S., South may see colder weather

 

Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html

Edited October 16, 2014 by knocker

[shaky]

Another warm winter likely for western U.S., South may see colder weather

 

Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html

does that mean we should expect a similar winter to last year?

[Gael_Force]

Another warm winter likely for western U.S., South may see colder weather

 

Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html

 

I'm not surprised by that; all the north American long rangers have some very positive anomalies for the winter quarter.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmp2m_Seas2.html

[Yarmy]

From a link on the same page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

How did they do with last year's forecast?

[knocker]

From a link on the same page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

How did they do with last year's forecast?

 

I don't remember but they didn't predict the winter extremes. Judah Cohen gets a mention here.

 

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/e7eb065f775943a6a1b0a1b5c2ac6c38/feds-dont-expect-winter-be-polar-vortex-redux

[Gael_Force]

From a link on the same page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

How did they do with last year's forecast?

 

I haven't got a copy of the written forecast but the MME speaks for itself! Only NASA was in any way close.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2013100800/current/tmp2m_Seas2.html

[joggs]

They forecast the southern U.S

to be wetter than average!

Southern tracking jet?

Also the nw and ne warmer than average hlb?

Edited October 17, 2014 by joggs

[picog]

does that mean we should expect a similar winter to last year?

I wouldn't have thought so if the NOAA forecast is anything close to being right, and it is easier to correctly forecast USA winter than UK.

[cheeky_monkey]

I wouldn't have thought so if the NOAA forecast is anything close to being right, and it is easier to correctly forecast USA winter than UK.

is it?

[summer blizzard]

is it?

 

Easier to give a general forecast for big places in general by saying west-high pressure, east-low pressure. Within that though it's much more difficult to forecast the extreme west (i.e. Washington state) or a central state.