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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted

Another warm winter likely for western U.S., South may see colder weather

 

Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html

 

I'm not surprised by that; all the north American long rangers have some very positive anomalies for the winter quarter.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmp2m_Seas2.html

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

From a link on the same page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

How did they do with last year's forecast?

 

I don't remember but they didn't predict the winter extremes. Judah Cohen gets a mention here.

 

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/e7eb065f775943a6a1b0a1b5c2ac6c38/feds-dont-expect-winter-be-polar-vortex-redux

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted

From a link on the same page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

How did they do with last year's forecast?

 

I haven't got a copy of the written forecast but the MME speaks for itself! Only NASA was in any way close.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2013100800/current/tmp2m_Seas2.html

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted (edited)

They forecast the southern U.S

to be wetter than average!

Southern tracking jet?

Also the nw and ne warmer than average hlb?

Edited by joggs
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
Posted

does that mean we should expect a similar winter to last year?

I wouldn't have thought so if the NOAA forecast is anything close to being right, and it is easier to correctly forecast USA winter than UK.

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

I wouldn't have thought so if the NOAA forecast is anything close to being right, and it is easier to correctly forecast USA winter than UK.

is it?

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

is it?

 

Easier to give a general forecast for big places in general by saying west-high pressure, east-low pressure. Within that though it's much more difficult to forecast the extreme west (i.e. Washington state) or a central state.

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