November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Yes funny how I think of Jan 2011 as being a mild month when in reality it came in below average - it just felt comparatively balmy coming out of #2 on the December CET cold hall of fame!

2009 into 2010 is the year most on here are hoping is repeated.

Thanks, I have decided that Dec is going to finish with a figure that matches 2014 almost exactly alongside the 2006 CET figure.

Lets presume my Nov predict of 8.3C is a direct hit. What would that leave Dec needing to finish on to match the 2006 CET figure exactly?

Edited November 27, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[BornFromTheVoid]

What are the largest November-December drops.

 

7.5C in 1981 is the largest drop by a big margin. 7.8C to 0.3C.

 

Then there was 1822 and 1817 both with a 6.6C drop, 8.2C to 1.6C and 9.1C to 2.5C respectively.

 

Yes funny how I think of Jan 2011 as being a mild month when in reality it came in below average - it just felt comparatively balmy coming out of #2 on the December CET cold hall of fame!

2009 into 2010 is the year most on here are hoping is repeated.

Thanks, I have decided that Dec is going to finish with a figure that matches 2014 almost exactly alongside the 2006 CET figure.

Lets presume my Nov predict of 8.3C is a direct hit. What would that leave Dec needing to fnish on to match the 2006 CET figure exactly?

 

December of 4.5C is what you're after then!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Thanks BornFromTheVoid. I have used your answer as my entry in next month's competition :-)

Edited November 27, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 27th

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 28th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seems close to certain that we'll finish on either 8.5 or 8.6C before corrections, something like 8.1 to 8.6C after corrections, so a good chance of a November in the top 20 warmest. For some perspective on that, to get into the 20 coldest, we'd need a CET less than 4C, last achieved in 1925.

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 29th

 

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited November 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Timmytour]

If it gets to 8.5C, This will be the 17th year since 1700 with a November mean CET of 8.5c or above

The average mean CET for both Januarys and Februarys that follow such Novembers is lower than the 1700-2013 average

[Lettucing Gutted]

A more specific way of asking would be, how many times have we had a very cold CET month following many mild ones.

The best example of this in recent times was 1995 - a very warm year and almost the warmest on record that ended with a very cold but unexceptional cetwise December.  However a slightly toned down version of this scenario occurred again in 2009.

Edited December 1, 2014 by Craig Evans

[reef]

Hadley is confirmed as 8.6C. There was no adjustment this month.

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

It ended up being the 11th warmest in the CET series.

 

Autumn was 12.07C, the third warmest on record behind 2011 (12.43C) and 2006 (12.63C). Remarkable how the top three have all been recorded in the last eight years!

Edited December 1, 2014 by reef

[Summer Sun]

Hadley is confirmed as 8.6C. There was no adjustment this month.

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

It ended up being the 11th warmest in the CET series.

 

Autumn was 12.07C, the third warmest on record behind 2011 (12.43C) and 2006 (12.63C). Remarkable how the top three have all been recorded in the last eight years!

 

I was just 0.1c out then the closest I've ever got I think

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few graphs now that the results are in.

 

The daily corrections for November

 

 

 

The daily finalised CET compared to the highs, lows and averages of the entire record.

 

 

 

The November CET compared to all previous November values

 

 

 

Here's the Autumn CET

 

Edited December 1, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[TonyH]

Very strange those downward corrections (which puzzled me anyway) no longer seem to happen!

Could have done with it this month though

 

EDIT Thanks for that BFTV it looks like the various daily correction countered each other out!

Edited December 1, 2014 by TonyH

[Methuselah]

Very strange those downward corrections (which puzzled me anyway) no longer seem to happen!

Could have done with it this month though

 

EDIT Thanks for that BFTV it looks like the various daily correction countered each other out!

Just as I start to take them into account...

[J10]

I will post the results for the year and Seasonal comp on Wednesday, after last month, I'll take my time and get it right.

 

Note to self

 

8.6c

 

Well done to BLUESKIES_DO_I_SEE for getting it spot on.

Edited December 1, 2014 by J10

[J10]

It took me a it longer than anticipated but the results of the 2014-15 results of the CET completion has been done.

 

The monthly winner was BlueSkies_do_I_see who got 8.6c spot on.

 

In the seasonal competition, a bit of a late turn around with BlueSkies_do_I_see winning from pjl20101 with Summer Sun in 3rd.

 

Overall reef held on for a deserved victory :clapping: with the Pit 2nd and BlueSkies_do_I_see up to 3rd.

 

Well done to the winners, and thanks to all for taking part this year.

 

Nov 2014 cet.xls

 

Nov 2014 cet.pdf

Edited December 3, 2014 by J10

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Thanks J10.  A pleasant surprise.  I thought I had entered 8.3 for Nov, but you are right it was 8.6

[Roger J Smith]

Congrats to Reef, The PIT, and Blue Skies for their medal performances this past year. And thanks from all the regulars to J10 for keeping track of it all.