arabian sea Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nilofar

[Vorticity0123]

A new tropical cyclone (designated 04A by JTWC) has developed in the Arabian Sea. The system consists of some banding features to the west and south of the system, but the JTWC noted also an eye feature was already associated with the system.

 

04A is forecast to strengthen into a category 1 equivalent hurricane while moving toward Oman. However, so far, the JTWC does not expect the system to actually hit Oman, as it becomes embedded in the westerlies just in time, forcing a recurve toward the northeast. Strong vertical wind shear will most likely kill the system off before it can reach land. Nevertheless, interests in Oman should be on the lookout for this system, in case the turn toward the northeast is delayed.

 

 

Track forecast of 04A from JTWC.

 

More information about the system can be found in a blog from Steve Gregory from Wunderground in the link below:

 

http://dutch.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2842

 

Source:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

[Somerset Squall]

IMD have upgraded the system to Cyclonic Storm status, and given it the name Nilofar. JTWC have upped the winds to 45kts in their latest advisory. Nilofar's central convection has continued to deepen around an eye feature, and strong banding continues to wrap around the centre. With this structure evident, and the fact that Nilofar is in a low shear, good outflow and warm sea temperature environment, I expect Nilofar will reach cat 1 status on the SS scale sooner rather than later. I think there is a good chance Nilofar could become stronger than the 75kt peak JTWC are suggesting.

The track forecast is complex. Current motion is quasi-stationary as Nilofar is sandwhiched between a ridge to the southeast and northwest. The ridge to the northwest is expected to win out, and settle northeast of Nilofar, allowing the storm to move north-northwestwards. Nilofar should remain just east of Oman before recurving northeastwards as Vorticity has said, as a trough breaks down the ridge. The trough will inflict shear on Nilofar, causing it to weaken long term. The latest forecast has Nilofar eventually making landfall near the India/Pakistan border as a weakening tropical storm, though because of the steering complexities, this is subject to change.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Nilofar has strengthened fairly quickly, and is now a cat 1 on the SS scale, with winds of 65kts. The eye has become better defined over the last 24hrs. JTWC now expect a peak of 90kts, but in their notes they say Nilofar could easily peak at 100kts, which seems to be a fair assessment given the very favourable environment. Although track speeds are still slow, they have picked up slightly, in a north-northwesterly direction.

[Somerset Squall]

Nilofar has been upgraded to a "Severe Cyclonic Storm" by IMD. JTWC have upped the winds to 70kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Nilofar has continued to strengthen, and winds are now at 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale, according to JTWC. Convection was a little lopsided around the eye due to some dry air intrusion, but Nilofar seems to have recovered from that as the CDO looks more symmetrical now. Nilofar seems well on it's way to cat 3 status looking at imagery:

[Cakie]

Been watching this on here

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=58.19,19.96,1619

Certainly working itself up to something interesting.

[Sainsbo]

Nilofar has rapidly intensified, and looks a lot stronger on Satellite than the JTWC's predictions. Next update will be interesting, could easily see it being cat 4+

[Somerset Squall]

Nilofar has indeed rapidly intensified, with winds now at 115kts, which makes it the second cat 4 of the 2014 North Indian Ocean season, and the second cat 4 this month in this basin. Shear is beginning to increase, meaning Nilofar is probably near peak intensity. Nilofar is moving north but will swing east-northeastwards soon. With shear increasing still further at the same time, Nilofar should weaken rather quickly on approach to northwestern India.

[knocker]

INSAT-3D (India's newest satellite) IR images of Cyclone Nilofar intensifying to Cat 4 in the Arabian Sea http://go.wisc.edu/efe0t4

[Somerset Squall]

Brutal shear in excess of 40kts is ripping Nilofar apart. The LLCC is becoming stretched and winds are falling rapidly, currently at 50kts. At this rate, there won't be much of Nilofar left as it approaches the India/Pakistan border.

Edited October 30, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have issued their final warning on Nilofar. Shear of more than 50kts has completely stripped the convection away from the LLC, which is rapidly losing definition. Regeneration is not expected.