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WINTER 2014 / 15 PRELIMINARY VIEW - * COLD , POSSIBLY VERY COLD + DRIER THAN AVE *


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Posted
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]
  • Weather Preferences: Snow deprived so anything white.
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]

Such easy to understand posts Steve, grounded with case studies. Thank you from a weather newbie/casual.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Definitely a downward trend, is this the first signs that maybe not a Siberian express but a Siberian more slower paced but rigid and robust train on the way for December.

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

A great read from Mr Murr. Fun posts through winter and the good thing is there is reasoning and great level of explanation. Top stuff Steve!

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Cheers All ^^

 

 

Evening All-

 

We are really gathering pace now, with the NH pattern really becoming LOADED towards a Negative AO, but not just a normal run of the mill joe Average AO, nope. A super duper negative AO - Index Ranges from the 12z suite at day 10 is probably low end of -3 from the GFS & heading past -5 on the GEM.

 

To put this into Perspective theres 3 offerings I bring to the table tonight.

 

1)

EXTREME Negative AO ( Sub -4) is RARE. - some might say as rare as hens teeth.... ( hence my Avatar )

What is even more rare is Sub -4 values in November, this is because the AO index should by rights according to the long term mean have a positive value.

 

There are 5 Novembers since 1950 with a sub -4 value in the month.

 

1959  -5.9 18th Nov  

1968  -4.2 14th Nov   

1985  -4.5 25th Nov  

1998  -4.1 16th Nov  

2010  -4.1 26th Nov

 

( Interesting Nov 62 just missed with a -3.8

 

Why is that important- well of the 15 Winter months after these Novembers the AO was negative for 11.

This is only half the story as theres not much difference between -4 & -3.

 

2)

So lets cherry pick Winters with our Negative (below freezing ) CETS since 1950 & highlight the lowest -AO value in the preceding November-

 

Dec 2010             -4.1      

Feb 1986             -4.5

Jan 1979              NONE.( however December had a -4.2)

Jan & Feb 1963   -3.8

Feb 56                 -3.4

 

Again a high Correlation -  to Low November Values. - Interesting November is just a calendar date- 1979 is interesting as the Winter started late in December however still saw low index values.

 

3)

November AO V Winter AO Correlation inc OPI - This is the BEST statistic of them ALL-

 

In the AO dataset there is 63 years. 1950-2013.

There are 12 Novembers with a Negative Sub -1 AO for the month.

 

1952,55,57,59,62,65,68,80,85,98,00,03  -

 

that = 36 Months. - the Winter AO for those was 30/36 Negative which is around 85%.

Now remove the 1 positive OPI year- 1998 > 1999 & you get.

 

30/33 NEGATIVE AO months. that's over 90% chance of a negative winter.

 

 

So why are SOME of us happy today.

 

This

 attachicon.gifNOAA AO 04.11.gif MEAN high -3's

+ this

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110412/EDH1-168.GIF?04-0             MEAN high -3s to -4

+ This

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014110412/gemnh-0-240.png?12        -6  BOOM chart

 

Is putting us on the cusp of something Big.....

 

ITS COMING, & based on the AO mapping & the early timing of the drop the probability suggests before December, then again in December related to Wave 1 activity...

 

Cheers

S

As ever Steve a great post with lots of thought and explanation....ive been slowly but surely getting very excited by the developments over the past few weeks and if things pan out as you suggest then i think many of us coldies will be beside ourselves with joy...i will continue to watch developments and in particular your posts to keep an eye on how we do....and i will refrain from saying anything to any of my kids or the rest of the family until t24 i promise... :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

Do we really want the snow and cold in Nov though? I know we can't be choosy, but surely there's then the chance that the actual winter might be a tad disappointing? I just remember seeing cold weather in Nov before and then nothing very exciting the following winter.

 

It would just make me apprehensive about  what comes after that's all.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A couple of choice examples from the ensembles to keep the negative AO vibe going,the second one in particular is real jaw dropping stuff,and "only" at day 10.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Do we really want the snow and cold in Nov though? I know we can't be choosy, but surely there's then the chance that the actual winter might be a tad disappointing? I just remember seeing cold weather in Nov before and then nothing very exciting the following winter.

 

It would just make me apprehensive about  what comes after that's all.

 

True, a December 2010 might come after! :rofl:

 

seriously though, looking at the models I don't we will get much cold and snow this November.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

I must say Steve - the reasoning is pretty solid. It's only November 4th of course, so perhaps we need to be a bit patient - but with a negative opi and the possibility of a negative AO november (note possibility...) then the odds appear to be stacked in favour of cold.

 

I wonder whether Glosea4 will change its outlook in a week's time...

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Posted
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl

Got to say I'm a little excited but to afraid to say anything just in case! Fingers crossedx:)

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I must say Steve - the reasoning is pretty solid. It's only November 4th of course, so perhaps we need to be a bit patient - but with a negative opi and the possibility of a negative AO november (note possibility...) then the odds appear to be stacked in favour of cold.

 

I wonder whether Glosea4 will change its outlook in a week's time...

 

Quote me on this if you want-

 

IF the GLOSEA4 is measuring the Strat anomalies then It may well change on Nov 4, if not whens the Final update- Dec 4?

 

S

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Quote me on this if you want-

 

IF the GLOSEA4 is measuring the Strat anomalies then It may well change on Nov 4, if not whens the Final update- Dec 4?

 

S

 

Its the Glosea 5 now which has a better horizontal resolution I think, I think it models almost into the mesosphere doesn't it?

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Quote me on this if you want-

 

IF the GLOSEA4 is measuring the Strat anomalies then It may well change on Nov 4, if not whens the Final update- Dec 4?

 

S

 

I Think their final winter update comes out end of November. Lets hope its the same as last year....... "Colder and dryer than average"..............

 

Meaning could they get 2 winters so spectacularly wrong in arrow??

Edited by DAVID SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I Think their final winter update comes out end of November. Lets hope its the same as last year....... "Colder and dryer than average"..............

 

I would rather have 'Much colder than average, much wetter than average'!!!!!    I know it would never happen though.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodham Walter Essex,between Danbury and Maldon 42 m asl
  • Location: Woodham Walter Essex,between Danbury and Maldon 42 m asl

I am amazed that there 'seems?' To be far less response to Steves post,than I would've expected.

It could be the mods are deleting many one liners with little dancing figures...or perhaps its just too early in the season for seasoned Coldie types, to be tempted with Potential nirvana.

I for one am thrilled to bits to have had such a promising start to the season,and by that I mean activity within the forum and interest piqued so soon.

It is a waiting game, but its brilliant to not still be waiting for anything of interest by mid Feb!

Good luck everyone,and may your snow dreams be realised !

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Posted
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset

I am amazed that there 'seems?' To be far less response to Steves post,than I would've expected.

It could be the mods are deleting many one liners with little dancing figures...or perhaps its just too early in the season for seasoned Coldie types, to be tempted with Potential nirvana.

I for one am thrilled to bits to have had such a promising start to the season,and by that I mean activity within the forum and interest piqued so soon.

It is a waiting game, but its brilliant to not still be waiting for anything of interest by mid Feb!

Good luck everyone,and may your snow dreams be realised !

It is bound to snow in EAnglia over Xmas this year - because we are booked in to a site with the campervan to enable a family gathering in Suffolk! We can take cold but the camper is not great driving in snow. I am thinking of taking out a bet at the bookies so that something good will come if we do get snowed off LoL

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Steve, if only there was more years of data to compare with.

Stratosphere pointing towards 2009- dry and cold, streamers off North Sea.

Americans looking at late 70's. 1976/77.

A -6 AO points towards 2010.

March 2013 was the last seriously negative AO (-5.6). As East Coast of Northern Ireland was on the boundary of that cold front I witnessed 4 1/2 foot of snow burying cars up to the roof and higher out towards countryside.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Just looked to see when the coldest 2nd half of November was - 1915. The following winter months included the warmest ever January (7.5C) in them! Be careful what you wish for.  :oops:

 

Some reanalysis charts from the time:

 

15th Nov: Full on Northerly...

 

archivesnh-1915-11-15-0-0.png

 

20th Nov: Scandi High...

 

archivesnh-1915-11-20-0-0.png

 

25th Nov: Greenland High...

 

archivesnh-1915-11-25-0-0.png

 

10th Jan: Oh dear...

 

archivesnh-1916-1-10-0-0.png

 

25th Jan: Ugh...

 

archivesnh-1916-1-25-0-0.png

 

(I suppose people had slightly more pressing concerns at the time, though)

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Do we really want the snow and cold in Nov though? I know we can't be choosy, but surely there's then the chance that the actual winter might be a tad disappointing? I just remember seeing cold weather in Nov before and then nothing very exciting the following winter.

If it only were that simple. I remember how cold November 1985 was, it became very mild at the start of December lasted to Christmas then after that it alternated between cold and mildish to late January then the frigid weather really struck. Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  

I am amazed that there 'seems?' To be far less response to Steves post,than I would've expected.

It could be the mods are deleting many one liners with little dancing figures...or perhaps its just too early in the season for seasoned Coldie types, to be tempted with Potential nirvana.

I for one am thrilled to bits to have had such a promising start to the season,and by that I mean activity within the forum and interest piqued so soon.

It is a waiting game, but its brilliant to not still be waiting for anything of interest by mid Feb!

Good luck everyone,and may your snow dreams be realised !

 

Don't think there has been any deleted posts and many choose to respond by way of the 'like' function, just have a look how many likes big steve has received. :good:  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Steve-I love reading your posts and sure I am speaking on behalf of the vast majority of us who have far lesser knowledge than yourself in thanking you as Your posts simplify things for us lesser mortals so we can understand the general jist of things.I have been a follower on Netweather for last 3 years and am more a follower than poster and have a love of both warm summers and cold snowy winters(hopefully this year lol!!).Your reasoning for a potentially colder than average winter is both sound and professional imho .

 

I find it a little odd that atm that a number of signals like the SAI,a favourable AO position,favourable OPI index,lowish Solar Activity,a favourable Jetstream(from a cold perspective)indicate a colder than average winter(maybe frontloaded this year) and yet the majority of LRFs for the UK go for an average/mild winter.

 

Whatever will be will be but I hope that all your hard work turns out to be a trendsetter and others fall into line with your thoughts and us "coldies" can have a better winter than last years dismal showing.

 

Keep up the good work and Thanks again  

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

As ever Steve a great post with lots of thought and explanation....ive been slowly but surely getting very excited by the developments over the past few weeks and if things pan out as you suggest then i think many of us coldies will be beside ourselves with joy...i will continue to watch developments and in particular your posts to keep an eye on how we do....and i will refrain from saying anything to any of my kids or the rest of the family until t24 i promise... :cold:

 

Absolutely disagree!

 

The likelihood is that even if Mr Murr is right (and fair play to him) presumably we will not be seeing 3 metre drifts and perma-ice from late November through to early March.

 

The lack of such condition will definitely allow hard core coldies to complain and back-bite that it's not as great as all that!

 

Maybe more sensible coldiesr are the "many" you refer to, but I doubt it :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Steve has anomaly year 2006 got any attention from you as a possible outcome.(OPI was positive though) East based QBO and on the same downward trend plot from solar max like this year is?

1976 -1.75 OPI is jumping out as a likely match with attention to lower solar output for that era. Solar flux is similar but not an East based QBO year.

Edited by KyleHenry
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