WINTER 2014 / 15 PRELIMINARY VIEW - * COLD , POSSIBLY VERY COLD + DRIER THAN AVE *

[feb1991blizzard]

Someone just said on the mod thread 'why does the GFS keep chopping and changing wrt heights to the North?'   I  think I know what steve's response will be to that!!!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Be wary. As great as Steve is, he is certainly guilty of looking for gold where there is none at times.

 

With that being said, this is not one of those times. There's are 2 or 3 different ways we can get cold out of this hemispheric profile and i suspect the Met Office will move into line for the 10-15 day timeframe. 

 

Agreed - the MO are understandably pretty cautious when it comes to these types of setups. Often they lag behind the pattern a bit (November 2010 and, I think, December 2009 being the main examples of that) but they are sometimes proved right - MOGREPS in December 2012 for example nailed the pattern. The ensembles are supportive of the general blocking pattern, which at least opens the possibility of the easterly, and I would note also that a 10% chance of an easterly by D10 is not the same as saying the pattern is likely to be 'business as usual' - the NH profile looks incredibly promising, regardless of whether it works out for us this time.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm still waiting on that incredibly cold December 2013:

[LomondSnowstorm]

The model flipped because the west qbo was too strong and solar activity rose too.

 

 

I take your point about solar activity, but the West QBO was pretty much constant in strength throughout last winter. From what I remember this pretty much mirrored what the short-medium term models were showing for early December, so it's an understandable error, but when short term changes shift the long range output so much it's difficult to take it too seriously. I'm not saying the CFS is uniquely poor for a long range model, but it is pretty inconsistent, and you can find a number of missed calls from it over the years. 2012/13 for example http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201212/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html In early December it went for a cold December on the basis of the main models but then went for a mild January February. And sure, there was an SSW in early January which completely shifted the NH pattern, but the fact that it isn't able to pick up on these changes makes it quite a poor tool for winter forecasting IMO.

[Weather-history]

The model flipped because the west qbo was too strong and solar activity rose too.

Your response doesn't really give any support to trusting the model, if anything you are saying it is subject to flaws from unknowns.

[SMU]

I think the route cause around solar activity is wrong, the models got 2 specific shortwaves wrong & modelled them in exactly the wrong place which delivered blocking ( mainly attributed to one )

When these shortwaves were finally resolved at T96 they actually ended up in the 2 worst possibly places & angles of momentum for blocking.

 

Attributation to QBO / Solar intensity. = 0

 

The issue here was model resolution ....

 

 

Anyway back on topic......

Edited November 8, 2014 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

Winter Forecast update Sun 30th November 1PM.

 

S

[Barry12]

Winter Forecast update Sun 30th November 1PM.

 

S

 

It better include the words snow and cold!!

[Dorsetbred]

Winter Forecast update Sun 30th November 1PM.

 

S

Steve you "tease" you....  

[feb1991blizzard]

Winter Forecast update Sun 30th November 1PM.

 

S

 

 

Are you going to do a video?

[Captain Shortwave]

As always though, your posts are well researched so it will be an interest to read. Personally I would want a winter more of cold, frosty and sunny conditions rather than tonnes of snow. But frankly anything would be better than last year, well except as wet and windy a winter but without the half dozen thunderstorms I got.

Edited November 23, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[DAVID SNOW]

Winter Forecast update Sun 30th November 1PM.

 

S

 

I take it this will be your winter 14/15 forecast Steve?

[Bobd29]

Steve I suspect your advance notice implies a degree of excitement, so along with others I await with interest. My only request would be that you revert to TNR or Aerial typeface as against the difficult to read one you currently favour.

[johnholmes]

I take it this will be your winter 14/15 forecast Steve?

 

David I assume you are on a wind up?

[DAVID SNOW]

David I assume you are on a wind up?

 

How so John? I was only asking if the 'update' was going to be Steve's actual winter forecast, because the next day would be Dec 1st, and usually seasonal forecasts are issued BEFORE the start of any season.

 

 Must be me being thick but I thought steve  would have said "final" update.

Edited November 24, 2014 by DAVID SNOW

[mcweather]

Winter Forecast update Sun 30th November 1PM.

 

S

 

Look forward to it with great Interest Steve.

[Bobd29]

Winter Forecast update Sun 30th November 1PM.

 

S

please please change the font

[kate1]

please please change the font

Yes, please do, Steve - I'm a great admirer of yours but getting to the stage where I need reading glasses - the normal NW font is fine!

[Mark Neal.]

Look forward to it!

[SMU]

UNDER EDIT do not reply

 

 

 

Afternoon All...........

 

 

The Overally CET is expected to be below average - at around 2.75

Perhaps divided around something like this, 3.8. 1.5  2.9

 

Heres the overall picture anomaly wise DJF-

 

Winter Preliminary.png

 

 

December hinges around the onset of wave 1 activity & how it can influence the blocking in the right place...

what could be the biggest problem-?

West based NAO......

Cold Stratosphere Down welling -

 

 

Many thanks for looking.....

 

S

 

There will be no further updates in the thread.

 

No winter forecast.- every element that was already in here has been covered off in the net Weather forecast which has been released today unusually early.............

 

S

[Hellboy]

There will be no further updates in the thread.

 

No winter forecast.- every element that was already in here has been covered off in the net Weather forecast which has been released today unusually early.............

 

S

I was looking forward to reading your expanded thoughts/forecast for the upcoming winter, Steve.

I guess whatever you were going to post is along the same lines as the NW forecast then?

[Paul]

There will be no further updates in the thread.

 

No winter forecast.- every element that was already in here has been covered off in the net Weather forecast which has been released today unusually early.............

 

S

 

Same day as last year Steve:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78606-netweather-winter-forecast-2013/

 

And the year before was issued on the 26th

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=893;sess=

 

We've been planning to release this week for some time now, and actually were going to go live yesterday but didn't quite make it in time.

[johnholmes]

There will be no further updates in the thread.

 

No winter forecast.- every element that was already in here has been covered off in the net Weather forecast which has been released today unusually early.............

 

S

 

If I may be allowed to say so Steve, that comment about not making the winter forecast is one of the daftest you have made! Why on earth not make your ideas available? It is hardly likely you 3 have got your heads together is it or that anyone reading the two forecasts would even think that. As I see Paul has commented the release date seems pretty consistent over the last 2-3 years for Net Wx

Totally baffled by your reaction.

[feb1991blizzard]

In defence of Steve, maybe he doesn't want to be seen as stealing Ed and Tony's work, and one of Steve's main reasons for releasing a forecast this year was the OPI, which is covered on the NW forecast, plus he has built his analogues on that anyway earlier in this thread or the OPI thread.

Edited November 27, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Hocus Pocus]

In defence of Steve, maybe he doesn't want to be seen as stealing Ed and Tony's work, and one of Steve's main reasons for releasing a forecast this year was the OPI, which is covered on the NW forecast, plus he has built his analogues on that anyway earlier in this thread or the OPI thread.

 I can't see why he's being criticised, SM has already alluded to why he isn't releasing a winter forecast and doing so would only be repeating much of what has already been highlighted on the Net Weather winter forecast.

Edited November 27, 2014 by Hocus Pocus