Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[IDO]

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

shows clearly on here - apart from a little cluster of milder runs around the 12th. Note that ECM maxes are always a couple degrees shy of verifying maxes though mid fifties for London is average at best for early November.

 

 

The problem with the ECM op at the moment is that it is on its own re heights to the NE. Even its own mean disregards that synoptic:

 

 

 

GEFS only has two members now showing the ECM op take on things.

 

As for ECM upper's temps, the D10 mean chart suggests Aberdeen around 0c and London around 2c, with confident standard deviation: 

 

 

Compare that with the 30 year averages at D10 for Aberdeen and London: 

 

Very much in line with average over that period so I am not really seeing a colder than average flow from D6 onwards. Of course surface conditions are not only dependent on the uppers but it is too far out to make conclusions on that, especially as the ECM suite is split with synoptic outcomes at D6, that will of course push the mean 2m temp lower, if the op is a guide to the Scandi outcome cluster. The GFS(P) 06z run again showing average temps after mid week:

 

 

As expected the GFS OP outlier from this morning has gone, so comparison uppers now: 

 

Also making less of the D8 Atlantic ridge, now with the Atlantic having a bit more oomph. D12: 

 

Again late in FI trying to build heights to Greenland:   Though that doesn't look anything but transient.

[Mucka]

Models at day 6

GFS

GFS(P)

UKMO

ECM

GEM

 

ECM very isolated in it's evolution, you would back it in situations like this usually, but with the UKMO and GEM backing the GFS solution then that might not be the case. The GFS and to a degree the GEM want to build another Atlantic ridge with stalls this very low pressure system and send it into Europe. There is potential for November to be rather wet as low pressure struggles against the mid latitude block over Eastern Europe/Russia. Nothing particularly cold, but 10/11C will feel cold given we saw 20-23C widely yesterday. 

 

Yes it is and that after the GFS was initially out on its own (other than GEM) with the shortwave running through Scandinavia. The parallel then got on board quite quickly with that followed by the UKMO. It is a reminder (to self) that those pesky shortwave spoilers can never be ruled out should we want helpful mid/high latitude blocking or ridging come the winter. Was ever thus.

 

I already said ECM was more likely right when GFS was out on a limb and that appears to be wrong now though there is always doubt when at least one major model has a different solution. It will be faintly amusing if the old GFS should have called this before the parallel or Euros, it must know it is for the chop! 

 

That is just a side issue for model geeks though, the big picture shows the PV isn't getting organised anytime soon although as far as we are concerned we can expect some typical autumnal weather with some wind and rain at times. The next period of interest for those seeking an early cold will be how strong the next Atlantic ridge is in 2nd week of November and whether we can create some more favourable conditions from there or whether the pattern will get flattened out again (which seems likeliest) with further unsettled weather. Either way though it is encouraging to see a relatively disorganised PV and amplified pattern and as long as this pattern of Euro trough/Atlantic ridge continues then there will always be the possibility of useful blocking developing should the jet relent at all.

 

Here is the 06z far fI chart which shows the pattern repeating out to mid month. Of course the actual chart on that day will likely not be even close but the general pattern may well be. next to it is the same pattern in the more reliable time frame. (so 3 snapshots over 2 weeks showing the same pattern)

 

Edited November 1, 2014 by Mucka

[Matty M]

I think there is now some momentum building towards a poorly organised PV as we move into mid-November.

 

Certainly the longer term models are beginning to look ever more interesting.

Edited November 1, 2014 by Matty M

[phil nw.]

A look at the ECM mean charts show plenty of warm anomalies over high latitudes but the unsettled spell looks like continuing for us.

We can see the troughing being squeezed se towards us in the overall pattern.

 

which means a fairly average Autumnal setup for now.

Two main areas for me for any height rises are to the east and over W.Canada.

I think the one area that may produce first is the Canadian heights which appear to have more pronounced warm air advection deep into the polar region.

Presently this isn't upwelliing sufficiently yet to disturb the pv greatly but this area continues to see ongoing +ve ht anomalies.  

 

 

[Summer Sun]

The biggest thing to note still is the pv which is really struggling to form even in the depths of FI the first set of charts are from the parallel run

 

d10

 

 

d12

 

 

d14

 

 

d16

 

 

Now the normal GFS and again the PV is struggling to form

d10

 

 

d12

 

 

d14

 

 

d16

 

 

Compare to 12 months ago

 

 

So with the PV still struggling to form the latter half of this month could see some colder weather and some snow if things stay this way and everything were to click into place, interesting times ahead for sure

[CanadaAl]

Buckle your seat belts folks. Looks like the roller coaster is ready to leave... 

[Ali1977]

Getting some nicer charts in FI but still no support for any cold from longer range models. Let's hope a flip in those will happen over the next few weeks.

[Barry12]

The GFS 12z has moved slightly towards the ECM at 144hrs I think.

 

 

168 hrs is completely different...

Edited November 1, 2014 by Barry95

[DR(S)NO]

Getting some nicer charts in FI but still no support for any cold from longer range models. Let's hope a flip in those will happen over the next few weeks.

In agreement here.....will be content to see the longer term trends and let the building blocks take place. It " feels" different to last year and I think we'll be seeing some great charts in the not so distant future.

[Barry12]

An Easterly sets up in FI on the GFS, we are close to some very cold air...

 

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO and GEM looking like developing a high briefly over Scandinavia before it sinks into the high over Eastern Europe. For those who like rain then November could be your month as that Eastern European block looks quite robust. The UK as a consequence could be the final destination for a lot of rainfall coming in from the Western as low pressure sinks south east through the UK and towards Iberia. No real sign of a temperature anomaly either way. I suspect we will keep winds from the south west so average or slightly above would be my call. Rainfall looks potentially like being above average.

Edited November 1, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[MR EXTREMES]

gem wants to show heights into and across iceland into greenland.

i wonder a steve murr sausage although still to early !

but could be the sign of things to come perhaps towards the end of nov with any luck.

 

it does look to be building across scandi into iceland greenland.

not sinking into europe although pressure is still high into europe could do with lower heights replacing euro high.

 

ukmo looks pretty good for cooler conditions heights over the pole heights over the canadian arctic 

Edited November 1, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Eugene]

UKMO and GEM looking like developing a high briefly over Scandinavia before it sinks into the high over Eastern Europe. For those who like rain then November could be your month as that Eastern European block looks quite robust. The UK as a consequence could be the final destination for a lot of rainfall coming in from the Western as low pressure sinks south east through the UK and towards Iberia. No real sign of a temperature anomaly either way. I suspect we will keep winds from the south west so average or slightly above would be my call. Rainfall looks potentially like being above average.

 

 

GFS 12Z is far from a wet run with winds not predominately from the SW for once, puzzled by your post TBH, like Steve Murr says definitely an improvement today for those looking for something not too wet and cool to cold, the week ahead doesn't look overly wet to me.

[knocker]

GFS 12Z is far from a wet run with winds not predominately from the SW for once, puzzled by your post TBH, like Steve Murr says definitely an improvement today for those looking for something not too wet and cool to cold, the week ahead doesn't look overly wet to me.

 

I would agree with the Captain and I'm very puzzled by "winds not predominately from the SW for once", A brief synopsis of the charts Monday-Friday at 12z.

 

Monday, Low 983mb Scotland with front clearing the SE and very windy from the SW.

 

Tuesday. Low 991mb Scotland with winds lighter from NW.

 

Wednesday  Transitory ridge

 

Thursday  Low 968mb south of Iceland with associated fronts Scotland to Cornwall and gales from the SW.

 

Friday  Low 968mb NW of Scotland. Gales from the west with heavy squally showers.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS 12Z is far from a wet run with winds not predominately from the SW for once, puzzled by your post TBH, like Steve Murr says definitely an improvement today for those looking for something not too wet and cool to cold, the week ahead doesn't look overly wet to me.

The majority of hi res shows a cyclonic south westerly (apart from mid-week as low pressure fills and drifts east). There is a lot of rainfall shown for the west in particular, not so much further east (10-30mm generally but 100mm in exposed western areas).

Anything after day 8 on the GFS should be given a wide berth, the GEM shows the potential way forward quite nicely with low pressure struggling to push beyond the UK as the ridge over Eastern Europe will prevent eastward progression of Atlantic lows. GFS ens show a trough near the UK with a predominantly cyclonic south westerly flow. This also backed up by the metoffice update.

Edited November 1, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[IDO]

GFS 12Z is far from a wet run with winds not predominately from the SW for once, puzzled by your post TBH, like Steve Murr says definitely an improvement today for those looking for something not too wet and cool to cold, the week ahead doesn't look overly wet to me.

 

 

GFS op rainfall totals for the next 8 days: 

 

Quite wet (understatement) for the west/NW and average or worse for many others. As for the GFS op after D10, it is a whopper of an outlier compared to its mean, e.g. T300:

 

 

 

I suppose that is why it is on it's last rites. The Parallel version which will take over next month is very wet and windy after D10:

 

 

 

This is in line with the mean synoptics. No real sign of any cold; maybe some transient PM air for the N/NW is as close as it will get. The mean 850s for London around or just above average:

 

 

A few more members at D16 showing a more organised PV with Greenland/NE Canada proving more popular. However one run and no cluster big enough to suggest a trend yet.

[Mucka]

ECM stalled at 72h on Meteoceil but it brings in some stormy weather in FI 

 

 

Followed by a repeating pattern of Atlantic ridge and trough.

 

[karyo]

ECM stalled at 72h on Meteoceil but it brings in some stormy weather in FI 

 

 

Followed by a repeating pattern of Atlantic ridge and trough.

 

And a mouthwatering arctic high!

[Ali1977]

ECM looking very promising for mid nov...huge arctic high

[knocker]

There is nothing in the GEFS or ECM  anomalies D10> that suggests the defibrillators need be on standby.

 

HP Pacific-pole-Scandinavia, low NE Canada, ridge western Atlantic, trough eastern Atlantic and jet running south of the UK. Essentially troughs still floating around the mid Atlantic HP as like next week with average temps. Later the Atlantic ridge collapses and the eastern trough weakens leaving the Atlantic dominated by low pressure in a more zonal flow.

Edited November 1, 2014 by knocker

[Daniel*]

PV mutilated on the ECM 12Z, some significant high latitude blocking in the far north. As Steve M alluded to, patience ... it would be nice if we got that ridge of positive anomalies to build over Greenland. I'm a novice go easy on me!

[MR EXTREMES]

Arctic high seems to be showing up in most models but where will it settle!.

Back in late summer there was a Greenland high that lasted a fair amount of time.

We shall see we had this a lot autumn last and was always close but no cigar.

Although the atmosphere is different ball game so far this autumn.

[MR EXTREMES]

PV mutilated on the ECM 12Z, some significant high latitude blocking in the far north. As Steve M alluded to, patience ... it would be nice if we got that ridge of positive anomalies to build over Greenland. I'm a novice go easy on me!

image.jpgimage.jpg

Certainly is a rather nice chart low pressure systems being pressured into going south southeast in to Europe it's a corker for future developments

[Methuselah]

Blimey peeps...We'll be knee-deep in 'potential' by this time next week!  

[bluearmy]

Certainly is a rather nice chart low pressure systems being pressured into going south southeast in to Europe it's a corker for future developments

 

we have a consistent week 2 pattern establishing on the ecm mean. alaskan ridge (which keeps the p/v split), sceuro ridge (which makes headway towards svaalbard area and may well link up with the alaskan ridge from time to time) and atlantic trough which appears keen to disrupt against the sceuro ridge and breakaway to become cut off near iberia. the combination of atlantic trough against sceuro ridge will continue to enhance wave 1 activity as 'warm' uppers are driven into the svaalbard area from time to time.

 

as you say, a pattern which could hold a lot of wintry interest if it becomes a repeating one.