Netweather preliminary winter thoughts..

[Paul]

This has just gone live on the site, even the links haven't been updated yet but I thought I'd share on here first. 

 

Ed and Tony are preparing our winter forecast this year and have put together a preliminary look at where they think things may be headed, which you can view here:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

 

"A winter with something for everyone"

[summer blizzard]

By the sounds of it your thinking December and February will be unsettled, windy and wet but near average. January will be cold and dry (since cold in the UK is correlated with below average precipitation). 

[Summer Sun]

A winter for everyone really with no pattern lasting too long based on these early thoughts

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Indeed. It doesn't look like it could be a too bad of a Winter, and would be an improvement from last year with the frequent spells of wet, wild, weather that had occurred. I suppose last Winter was, at least, quite spectacular for how unsettled it was (but wouldn't be keen at all for it to be repeated this year). The forecast seems to have some similarities to Rodger J Smith's forecast with a mixture of cold and mild spells possible, though it is interesting that it's going for January to be the likeliest coldest month. I think Steve Murr was going for the same sort of thing for his Winter prediction.

Quite looking forward to the final forecast!

[PolarWarsaw]

I'd settle for something like that. Keep it interesting, a handful of snow days and a proper wind event.

[terrier]

Sounds like something for everyone there good write up,

[feb1991blizzard]

Good luck to the team, particularly with the January part!!!!,   will there be a video forecast this year or not?  Also what was the year that they (Stewart and 2 others) all sat around a table, im sure it was Nov 2009 previewing the 09/10 winter, does anybody have a link?

[Don]

Good luck to the team, particularly with the January part!!!!,   will there be a video forecast this year or not?  Also what was the year that they (Stewart and 2 others) all sat around a table, im sure it was Nov 2009 previewing the 09/10 winter, does anybody have a link?

 

I remember that!  Wasn't it Stewart, John Holmes and Brickfielder?  I believe it was November 2008 previewing 08/09.

 

Those early thoughts don't sound bad and definitely an improvement on last year.  Thanks Ed and Tony

Edited October 31, 2014 by Don

[phil nw.]

I think most of us would be content with that.

Mixed indeed,some Atlantic activity for storm watchers with some cold and possible snow for cold fans.

I like the idea of the jet running south which could give an east/north easterly setup with widespread snow as a battleground develops.

[feb1991blizzard]

I remember that!  Wasn't it Stewart, John Holmes and Brickfielder?  I believe it was November 2008 previewing 08/09.

 

Those early thoughts don't sound bad and definitely an improvement on last year.  Thanks Ed and Tony

 

Possibly, it was on youtube I think but its since been deleted and cant find it anywhere in the archives.

[Paul]

I'll see if I can dig it out, should have it somewhere..

[feb1991blizzard]

I'll see if I can dig it out, should have it somewhere..

 

Thanks.

[johnholmes]

I remember that!  Wasn't it Stewart, John Holmes and Brickfielder?  I believe it was November 2008 previewing 08/09.

 

Those early thoughts don't sound bad and definitely an improvement on last year.  Thanks Ed and Tony

 

I was out of my depth then, I think Steve M was also part of it, no doubt Paul will find the video when he gets time.

[SMU]

I remember filming that lol -  I don't even think we mentioned the stratosphere!!

 

 

Best of luck with the forecast -

[chionomaniac]

There is still plenty of time for this forecast to change with a month left to winter. The strat is 'ripe' this winter. I think that it will mature early January, but there are the possibilities that it could 'mature' earlier, but that is highly dependent upon tropospheric (upwelling) wave patterns that are less easy to predict in advance.

[johnholmes]

I remember filming that lol -  I don't even think we mentioned the stratosphere!!

 

 

Best of luck with the forecast -

 

I think you are correct Steve, it shows just how much folk have learnt since then.

[chionomaniac]

I remember filming that lol -  I don't even think we mentioned the stratosphere!!

 

 

Best of luck with the forecast -

Cheers. I think that back then you were mentioning and considering the stratosphere - it is that that made me look a bit harder at it - and then some! I remember some very relevant conversations in the now defunct easternwx forums on the subject.

[feb1991blizzard]

There is still plenty of time for this forecast to change with a month left to winter. The strat is 'ripe' this winter. I think that it will mature early January, but there are the possibilities that it could 'mature' earlier, but that is highly dependent upon tropospheric (upwelling) wave patterns that are less easy to predict in advance.

 

I was a little (only a little mind you) disappointed earlier, I would love to see a decent cold shot before xmas and thought it very possible with a little wave activity involved but will always bow to your superior knowledge, happier now you think its possible, im thinking maybe a last week before xmas 1993 style is perhaps possible, maybe not really potent but a little amplification of the Jet possible.

[lorenzo]

Thanks for everyone's interest, really a privilege to be involved for me having joined this forum and learned everything from so many great posters on here.

 

Really looking forward to the full forecast, and it is an exciting winter to be involved with as the indicators mentioned create a more favorable base state in the atmosphere for a new winter.

 

It is also exciting to have new research, angles of approach and studies / well placed theories, getting a real close examination over the coming months, so much so this will extend our knowledge of ultimately what I think is a great challenge and one that rather than shy away from we should engage.

 

You could argue that there are trends in forecasting, with the stratosphere coming to the forefront publicly in very recent years and now new interest in creative indexes such as Taymyr and OPI, It is great to appreciate the science, energy and dedication involved by those wishing to continue to push discovery forward.

 

I hope we can deliver a forecast that is received as well reasoned, supported by evidence and interpretation of the best information available in both in new modelling, analogs, peer expertise and academic research available, and I really hope you enjoy reading it.

[Polar Maritime]

Great Job Tony/Chio 

[chionomaniac]

At this point, I am really happy with the way the first half of November is shaping up, the analog match for November matches up really well with the forecast anomaly charts, with the exception of even better heights in the Arctic.

 

Even with average temperatures, one could expect periods of below average countered by above for the rest of those months. And December is certainly an intriguing month. The November strat conditions will tip the scales either way......

[mcweather]

At this point, I am really happy with the way the first half of November is shaping up, the analog match for November matches up really well with the forecast anomaly charts, with the exception of even better heights in the Arctic.

 

Even with average temperatures, one could expect periods of below average countered by above for the rest of those months. And December is certainly an intriguing month. The November strat conditions will tip the scales either way......

 

Hi Chiono, Am I right in thinking that the even better hieghts in the arctic you refer to make it more likely that December will be an intriguing month in a wintery sense.

[Barry12]

Sounds good!

 

This Winter should be even more exciting to predict with the OPI

[Hocus Pocus]

At this point, I am really happy with the way the first half of November is shaping up, the analog match for November matches up really well with the forecast anomaly charts, with the exception of even better heights in the Arctic.

 

Even with average temperatures, one could expect periods of below average countered by above for the rest of those months. And December is certainly an intriguing month. The November strat conditions will tip the scales either way......

Which analogue years would you be looking at, from my limited knowledge I would be looking at 76/77 as a good match?

[lorenzo]

At this stage of November, a quick report prior to full winter forecast release. Ed and myself are pretty pleased with the November composite and how things are shaping up, trust me the ESRL server and  analog maker has been hammered for a good 6 weeks prior to narrowing down the 210 individual days since 1950 in this chart.

 

To give some perspective that is around 23,000 days of weather that have been discarded to create a composite that matches in all respects a distinctively resonant pattern for November. Looks simple when you see the plots.

 

Being newer to this than Ed, I was entirely surprised to see the key anomalies progress in the manner which they have, having built this some weeks ago, November has been a crazy month.

 

With lots of forecast plots around and final winter forecasts due for release this week it is proving to be both a winter of some key great known background variables mixed in with some good wildcards. 

 

We also have a really intriguing plot of where our trusty Global Circulation Models see things that are not necessarily in kilter with where LRFs are leading.

 

It is not so much a detail of them vs. us yet an intriguing balance of where the information is blended.  The upshot being hopefully we see more trends to watch out for in GCMs in the future, and also we take away more learnings that can be taken into future LRF analysis leads.

 

Importantly, I know that some may think this question.

 

Well if we have current short range scatter(Shannon Entropy), confusion, uncertainty on what the weather is like next week , then how can we hope to give you a roadmap to and through winter? 

 

Well, because we dare to is the first answer.

 

Secondly and most importantly because to me this is the best challenge there is in anyone's everyday lives, it's what we are passionate about, why are you here reading this if not.

 

What is the weather doing, do we have the excitement of looking forward to the romantically cold and snowy winter.. Well I think that's worth finding out.

 

The important thing here to remember is we can use the best knowledge at our disposal to dispel myths and come to logical, reasoned scientific conclusions, not perfect but entirely plausible and we can learn from them. GP's signature is a testament to this.

 

"I submit those who take the time to understand these kinds of issues scientifically will have a better understanding of subseasonal matters/global atmospheric dynamics including making predictions (on average), than those who just use numerical model forecasts as a stand alone." Ed Berry (2009).

 

The important thing to remember here is that a mid or long range forecast has slightly different parameters, slightly different forecasting realities.

 

It's not ever going to be will it snow here on 'x' day, LRFs do not deal in definitive and should not be held into account as such.

 

What we can say is that the atmosphere is primed in a certain direction and that we expect it to do certain things.

 

This is as a result of  study, slog, eye watering comprehension of scientific and academic research papers, then  blended with visible experience of our Island, and how our precarious position on the edge of the Atlantic basin near to a potentially cold continental landshelf creates our uniquely unpredictable environment.  This in turn creates the best fun challenge ever.

 

Hope that gives some background along with the brief charts, look forward to full release towards Thursday / Friday next week. Would be great to be right, but more importantly - will be greater for you all to enjoy the thoughts within.

Edited November 22, 2014 by lorenzo