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Netweather preliminary winter thoughts..


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    By the sounds of it your thinking December and February will be unsettled, windy and wet but near average. January will be cold and dry (since cold in the UK is correlated with below average precipitation). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Indeed. It doesn't look like it could be a too bad of a Winter, and would be an improvement from last year with the frequent spells of wet, wild, weather that had occurred. I suppose last Winter was, at least, quite spectacular for how unsettled it was (but wouldn't be keen at all for it to be repeated this year). The forecast seems to have some similarities to Rodger J Smith's forecast with a mixture of cold and mild spells possible, though it is interesting that it's going for January to be the likeliest coldest month. I think Steve Murr was going for the same sort of thing for his Winter prediction.

    Quite looking forward to the final forecast!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Good luck to the team, particularly with the January part!!!!,   will there be a video forecast this year or not?  Also what was the year that they (Stewart and 2 others) all sat around a table, im sure it was Nov 2009 previewing the 09/10 winter, does anybody have a link?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

    Good luck to the team, particularly with the January part!!!!,   will there be a video forecast this year or not?  Also what was the year that they (Stewart and 2 others) all sat around a table, im sure it was Nov 2009 previewing the 09/10 winter, does anybody have a link?

     

    I remember that!  Wasn't it Stewart, John Holmes and Brickfielder?  I believe it was November 2008 previewing 08/09.

     

    Those early thoughts don't sound bad and definitely an improvement on last year.  Thanks Ed and Tony

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    I think most of us would be content with that.

    Mixed indeed,some Atlantic activity for storm watchers with some cold and possible snow for cold fans.

    I like the idea of the jet running south which could give an east/north easterly setup with widespread snow as a battleground develops.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I remember that!  Wasn't it Stewart, John Holmes and Brickfielder?  I believe it was November 2008 previewing 08/09.

     

    Those early thoughts don't sound bad and definitely an improvement on last year.  Thanks Ed and Tony

     

    Possibly, it was on youtube I think but its since been deleted and cant find it anywhere in the archives.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    I remember that!  Wasn't it Stewart, John Holmes and Brickfielder?  I believe it was November 2008 previewing 08/09.

     

    Those early thoughts don't sound bad and definitely an improvement on last year.  Thanks Ed and Tony

     

    I was out of my depth then, I think Steve M was also part of it, no doubt Paul will find the video when he gets time.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    I remember filming that lol -  I don't even think we mentioned the stratosphere!!

     

     

    Best of luck with the forecast -

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    There is still plenty of time for this forecast to change with a month left to winter. The strat is 'ripe' this winter. I think that it will mature early January, but there are the possibilities that it could 'mature' earlier, but that is highly dependent upon tropospheric (upwelling) wave patterns that are less easy to predict in advance.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    I remember filming that lol -  I don't even think we mentioned the stratosphere!!

     

     

    Best of luck with the forecast -

     

    I think you are correct Steve, it shows just how much folk have learnt since then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I remember filming that lol -  I don't even think we mentioned the stratosphere!!

     

     

    Best of luck with the forecast -

    Cheers. I think that back then you were mentioning and considering the stratosphere - it is that that made me look a bit harder at it - and then some! I remember some very relevant conversations in the now defunct easternwx forums on the subject.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    There is still plenty of time for this forecast to change with a month left to winter. The strat is 'ripe' this winter. I think that it will mature early January, but there are the possibilities that it could 'mature' earlier, but that is highly dependent upon tropospheric (upwelling) wave patterns that are less easy to predict in advance.

     

    I was a little (only a little mind you) disappointed earlier, I would love to see a decent cold shot before xmas and thought it very possible with a little wave activity involved but will always bow to your superior knowledge, happier now you think its possible, im thinking maybe a last week before xmas 1993 style is perhaps possible, maybe not really potent but a little amplification of the Jet possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Great Job Tony/Chio  :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    At this point, I am really happy with the way the first half of November is shaping up, the analog match for November matches up really well with the forecast anomaly charts, with the exception of even better heights in the Arctic.

     

    Even with average temperatures, one could expect periods of below average countered by above for the rest of those months. And December is certainly an intriguing month. The November strat conditions will tip the scales either way......

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    At this point, I am really happy with the way the first half of November is shaping up, the analog match for November matches up really well with the forecast anomaly charts, with the exception of even better heights in the Arctic.

     

    Even with average temperatures, one could expect periods of below average countered by above for the rest of those months. And December is certainly an intriguing month. The November strat conditions will tip the scales either way......

     

    Hi Chiono, Am I right in thinking that the even better hieghts in the arctic you refer to make it more likely that December will be an intriguing month in a wintery sense.

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    Sounds good! :cold:

     

    This Winter should be even more exciting to predict with the OPI :bomb:

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    At this point, I am really happy with the way the first half of November is shaping up, the analog match for November matches up really well with the forecast anomaly charts, with the exception of even better heights in the Arctic.

     

    Even with average temperatures, one could expect periods of below average countered by above for the rest of those months. And December is certainly an intriguing month. The November strat conditions will tip the scales either way......

    Which analogue years would you be looking at, from my limited knowledge I would be looking at 76/77 as a good match?
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