The Met Office’s outlook for the start of winter 2014

[BornFromTheVoid]

Edit: Sorry for the rash reply BFTV, I was busy multitasking with my children at the same time as cooking. I realise you weren't implying such, apologies.

 

No need to apologise, I'm very much experienced with the frustrations of posts coming across in ways you didn't intend!

[Hocus Pocus]

No need to apologise, I'm very much experienced with the frustrations of posts coming across in ways you didn't intend!

Thanks BFTV.

[Weather Boy]

Pretty poor if im honest.

 

A whole video devoted to what they do & no comments on the rationale for this winter being above average.

 

there is not ONE indices indicating an above average Winter.

 

the QBO, The SAI , the October height anomaly in the Taymyr region & its feedback, the wave 1 activity for the last 6 weeks - all indicated a cold blocked winter.

 

The Met office need a new model with restricted long term mean data.

 

They should run the model from 2007 as the long term mean.

 

But the question is: why have they made this prediction (if you can call it that - it's based on the balance of probabilities) in the face of all the indicies (I am thinking of models showing a split vortex and a significant strat warming in early-mid December, if not a full blown SSW)?

 

I agree that it is very frustrating that they have said not one word as to their reasoning behind this LRF.  But they must have come to that view based on scientific evidence.  What?

[Neilsouth]

“For November-December-January above-average UK-mean temperatures are more likely than below-average†and “Latest predictions for UK-mean precipitation favour near- or above-average rainfall for November-December-Januaryâ€

 

 

However, there are still substantial probabilities that either average or cool/dry conditions may occur.

 

 

Just say you don't have a damn clue, just stop forecasting!

The problem is with the met, all their models have Climate Change & Global Warming data entries, which is why they get it so wrong for so often. I've told them this many times on Twitter

[johnholmes]

Just say you don't have a damn clue, just stop forecasting!

The problem is with the met, all their models have Climate Change & Global Warming data entries, which is why they get it so wrong for so often. I've told them this many times on Twitter

 

not true as the post I made several days ago showed. Of course if you choose not to believe them that is up to you.