December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)

[J10]

Scores are now in.

 

This year on a trial basis, I am adding additional information in the form of Pivot Tables on the spreadsheets and other info which should allow for future analysis if required.  However the scores are also in the previous  format.

 

Scores

 

5.2c - 2 players got it spot on DeepSnow and Don, while a further six were 0.1c out.

 

Monthly and Overall

 

The Top 3 are DeepSnow, Don and tcc.

 

Dec 2014 cet.pdf

Dec 2014 cet.xls

 

Statistical info

 

The average entry was 4.4c [0.8c below the final out turn.]

The Correlation was -0.25, indicating that later entries were better than previous ones.

 

** Really Nerdy Stats warning **

 

Very interesting that the 4th quartiles entries did far better than the 3rd quartile, was there a pattern shift in the models around then, or just a coincidence in terms of more accurate posting. The cutoff between 3rd and 4th quartile entries was on the 30th November.

 

Any errors please let me know [as politely as possible.]

Edited January 1, 2015 by J10

[J10]

I shall take a punt on 5.2c please

 

No idea on December you can go from mild to cold in no time so I shall go for 5.5c

 

Unfortunately you changed it from 52.2 to 5.5, still a good attempt though.

Edited January 1, 2015 by J10

[Don]

Unfortunately you changed it from 52.2 to 5.5, still a good attempt though.

 

Jeez, that really would have been a warm December!

[Roger J Smith]

Well then, with the cold spell after Christmas, a long-standing CET record was saved by the narrowest of margins. This is an update of a post that I entered in the November thread.

 

----

 

2014 has already been part of one winter futility record -- the coldest day last winter (2.5 C on 23 Nov 2013) broke the previous record for any winter, +1.7 in 1974-75.

 

But a second winter futility record (was) yet to be determined -- highest value of the annual daily minimum CET value. As last winter's feeble "winner" was not even in 2014, the lowest value so far (late Nov) was 3.0 from the 30th of January. That is way out ahead of the pack, but we have December and what's left of November to settle this one way or the other. The top annual futility values before 2014 (from 1772 on) and all cases 0.0 or higher (now) include:

 

(edit on 1 Jan 2015 -- this is how things turned out, missed by 0.1 ... have now edited the ranks that were originally posted in Nov CET thread, where the post is also edited but without some of these comments added)

 

1. __ 0.9 __ 1863 (11 Jan)

 

2. __ 0.8 __ 2014 (29 Dec)

 

3. __ 0.7 __ 1872 (21 Mar, 11 Dec)

 

4. __ 0.5 __ 1990 (15 Dec)

4. __ 0.5 __ 2004 (29 Jan, 20 Dec)

 

6. __ 0.4 __ 1834 (8 Feb)

 

7. __ 0.2 __ 1898 (11 Feb)

 

8. __ 0.0 __ 1975 (14 Dec)

So then, the record from 1863 apparently survived by 0.1 and 2014 is in second place on this cold futility list. I was actually surprised to find there was no value around 0.0 in that spell as some of the southern locations probably had ice days. But apparently the posted data are now official so it is what it is.

 

I have updated all other possible references to 2014 in the CET record thread that I posted and continue to update over in the historical weather section. Follow the link in the signature line below and you'll find such factoids as 30-year means of different periods, daily records, annual extreme values of daily mean CET, and some heat wave and cold spell comparisons. Whenever something happens in real time to change anything in these compilations (and I notice) the relevant table is edited. For example we had two record highs in October, and one on 18 December (11.8 edged out 11.4 from 1932) so that brings the 2014 record high count to 3 and drops three years (1772, 1932 and 1954) by one each as their records were pushed aside. The range between record high and low on 31 October (16.2) also replaced the previous value of 15.3 for that statistic.

 

Happy New Year and all the best for 2015.

Edited January 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

Jeez, that really would have been a warm December!

 

 

Meant to be 5.2c, he would have been spot on.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few graphs for December.

 

First, the difference before and after corrections were applied.

 

 

Second, December daily averages compared to the average of all data and the different percentile values. As we can see, one day set a new record, the 18th.

 

 

Finally, the December CET compared to all the previous years.

 

[Summer Sun]

Unfortunately you changed it from 52.2 to 5.5, still a good attempt though.

 

Just released that I will have forgotten all about the first post

 

ah well never mind I was still close

 

*Note to self in future my sure I haven't already posted my guess*