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December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Table of entries (104 on time) posted in competition thread here

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-201213-and-201314-cet-competition-the-scores/page-5

 

Median value was 4.3 C ... 3.9 seemed quite a popular choice. Probably fair to say there are two main camps, one around the 5-6 range and one in the 3s to low 4s. A few (ahem) outliers not only the irrepressible Craig Evans (Craig, you should add what you really expect just for fun).

 

Now comes the part of Sprockets where we freeze.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Table of entries (104 on time) posted in competition thread here

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-201213-and-201314-cet-competition-the-scores/page-5

 

Median value was 4.3 C ... 3.9 seemed quite a popular choice. Probably fair to say there are two main camps, one around the 5-6 range and one in the 3s to low 4s. A few (ahem) outliers not only the irrepressible Craig Evans (Craig, you should add what you really expect just for fun).

 

Now comes the part of Sprockets where we freeze.

 

 

Just as a matter of interest, is your entry a bit of fun or does your model suggest a brutal December, unless freezing fog makes a sudden unexpected appearance in the first bit and any Atlantic influence is brief due to an unexpectedly early Stratospheric warming bringing a potent continental influence quicker than expected, I cant see any way a sub zero December can possibly happen. In 2010 we only had a few days around mid month mild (and they were only slightly above average) and a last few days the Atlantic blasted through but at no point was it very mild and mostly was brutally cold so it really does need something special to achieve a sub zero month.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Craig Evans (Craig, you should add what you really expect just for fun).

Sorry Roger but there is nothing worse for me as a cold lover than going for a cool 'un only to be kicked in the teeth by a mild horrorshow.  If this December even ends up just remotely cold (a` la 1990) it will stick out in this year like a sore thumb apart from August.

Edited by Craig Evans
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Should certainly be interesting to see where we end up with such a goal for the warmest year needed.

 

The first 8 days should average below the rolling average i think.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 5.7C while maxima look like being around the mid 7s, so the CET should be close to 6.5C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel would have the CET on

5.9C to the 3rd (4.8]

5.5C to the 4th (4.3)

5.3C to the 5th (4.3)

5.2C to the 6th (4.6)

5.4C to the 7th (6.7)

5.5C to the 8th (6.6]

5.8C to the 9th (8.2)

 

A pretty average start to the month looks likely, quite close to the 81-10 for the first 9 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

1981-2010 Daily CET means, cumulative means, and 1772-2013 records

_________________________________________________________________

 

DATE ___ MAX ______ MIN _______ 1981-2010 ___ cum

 

01 Dec ... 12.1 (1775) .. -3.0 (1947) ... ... ... 5.8 ... ... 5.8
02 Dec ... 12.2 (1985) .. -4.7 (1796) ... ... ... 5.8 ... ... 5.8
03 Dec ... 12.2 (1985) .. -4.0 (1879) ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.9
04 Dec ... 12.1 (1888) .. -3.8 (1879&1925) . 6.1 ... ... 5.9
05 Dec ... 12.6 (1898) .. -3.7 (1844) ... ... ... 6.1 ... ... 6.0

06 Dec ... 12.3 (1898) .. -5.5 (1844) ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.8
07 Dec ... 12.3 (1856) .. -5.7 (1879) ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... 5.7
08 Dec ... 12.1 (1856) .. -5.4 (1807) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 5.5
09 Dec ... 11.8 (1934) .. -4.0 (1803) ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... 5.4
10 Dec ... 10.9 (1997) .. -4.5 (1784) ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... 5.3

11 Dec ... 12.6 (1994) .. -6.7 (1784) ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... 5.2
12 Dec ... 12.9 (1994) .. -8.5 (1981) ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... 5.1

13 Dec ... 11.6 (1918) .. -6.5 (1981) ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 5.1
14 Dec ... 11.8 (1912) .. -5.3 (1878) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 5.0
15 Dec ... 11.2 (1985) .. -5.4 (1788) ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 5.0

16 Dec ... 10.8 (1842) .. -6.6 (1859) ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 5.0
17 Dec ... 11.6 (1904) .. -7.7 (1859) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.9

18 Dec ... 11.4 (1932) .. -7.1 (1859) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.9
19 Dec ... 11.6 (1993) .. -6.8 (2010) ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.9
20 Dec ... 11.1 (1833) .. -7.0 (2010) ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... 4.8

21 Dec ... 11.4 (1971) .. -5.9 (2010) ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.8
22 Dec ... 11.6 (1991) .. -6.8 (1890) ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.8
23 Dec ... 11.8 (1991) .. -6.4 (1870) ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.8
24 Dec ... 10.7 (1843) .. -6.9 (1870) ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.8
25 Dec ... 10.4 (1824 .. -10.8 (1796) ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.8
.. .. . .. .. .. .. .. &1983)

26 Dec ... 11.0 (2011) .. -5.4 (1798) ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.7
27 Dec ... 10.6 (1987) .. -8.4 (1798) ... ... ... 3.9 ... ... 4.7
28 Dec ... 11.5 (1987) .. -8.2 (1798) ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.7
29 Dec ... 12.0 (1987) .. -4.9 (1874) ... ... ... 3.9 ... ... 4.7
30 Dec ... 11.0 (1834) .. -6.1 (1870) ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.6

31 Dec ... 11.1 (1859) .. -7.1 (1783) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.6
 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

The northern half of the country looks locked into a period of average or below average values for foreseeable future, whereas the CET zone will languish in the average/slightly above average bracket, certainly not the mild start to a month we have seen so many times this year.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans,
  • Location: St Albans,

Winter already? - put me down for a very late 4.9

 

1981-2010 Daily CET means, cumulative means, and 1772-2013 records

_________________________________________________________________

 

DATE ___ MAX ______ MIN _______ 1981-2010 ___ cum

 

01 Dec ... 12.1 (1775) .. -3.0 (1947) ... ... ... 5.8 ... ... 5.8
02 Dec ... 12.2 (1985) .. -4.7 (1796) ... ... ... 5.8 ... ... 5.8
03 Dec ... 12.2 (1985) .. -4.0 (1879) ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.9
04 Dec ... 12.1 (1888) .. -3.8 (1879&1925) . 6.1 ... ... 5.9
05 Dec ... 12.6 (1898) .. -3.7 (1844) ... ... ... 6.1 ... ... 6.0

06 Dec ... 12.3 (1898) .. -5.5 (1844) ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.8
07 Dec ... 12.3 (1856) .. -5.7 (1879) ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... 5.7
08 Dec ... 12.1 (1856) .. -5.4 (1807) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 5.5
09 Dec ... 11.8 (1934) .. -4.0 (1803) ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... 5.4
10 Dec ... 10.9 (1997) .. -4.5 (1784) ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... 5.3

11 Dec ... 12.6 (1994) .. -6.7 (1784) ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... 5.2
12 Dec ... 12.9 (1994) .. -8.5 (1981) ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... 5.1

13 Dec ... 11.6 (1918) .. -6.5 (1981) ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 5.1
14 Dec ... 11.8 (1912) .. -5.3 (1878) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 5.0
15 Dec ... 11.2 (1985) .. -5.4 (1788) ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 5.0

16 Dec ... 10.8 (1842) .. -6.6 (1859) ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 5.0
17 Dec ... 11.6 (1904) .. -7.7 (1859) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.9

18 Dec ... 11.4 (1932) .. -7.1 (1859) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.9
19 Dec ... 11.6 (1993) .. -6.8 (2010) ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.9
20 Dec ... 11.1 (1833) .. -7.0 (2010) ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... 4.8

21 Dec ... 11.4 (1971) .. -5.9 (2010) ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.8
22 Dec ... 11.6 (1991) .. -6.8 (1890) ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.8
23 Dec ... 11.8 (1991) .. -6.4 (1870) ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.8
24 Dec ... 10.7 (1843) .. -6.9 (1870) ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.8
25 Dec ... 10.4 (1824 .. -10.8 (1796) ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.8
.. .. . .. .. .. .. .. &1983)

26 Dec ... 11.0 (2011) .. -5.4 (1798) ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.7
27 Dec ... 10.6 (1987) .. -8.4 (1798) ... ... ... 3.9 ... ... 4.7
28 Dec ... 11.5 (1987) .. -8.2 (1798) ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.7
29 Dec ... 12.0 (1987) .. -4.9 (1874) ... ... ... 3.9 ... ... 4.7
30 Dec ... 11.0 (1834) .. -6.1 (1870) ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.6

31 Dec ... 11.1 (1859) .. -7.1 (1783) ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.6
 

 

I think it is very interesting that xmas day has the lowest max cet and lowest min cet - I guess there is no adjustment made in respec tof activity levels but the differential looks big enough to be statistically significant demonstration that human activity is affecting values every day....or of course that data collection on xmas day is less robust....

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

With a minimum today of 0.9C and maxima likely to reach about 5C, we should see a further drop to about 4.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

4.5C to the 5th (3.1)

4.3C to the 6th (3.4)

4.6C to the 7th (6.2)

4.4C to the 8th (2.9)

4.5C to the 9th (5.6)

4.6C to the 10th (5.4)

4.6C to the 11th (5.0)

 

Seems a chance of beating the coldest day of last winter in the next week. Overall, a slightly below average week coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

4.7c to the 4th

 

-0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

We're actually BELOW average?!!  A rare occurrence in 2014......

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Yesterday averaged 2.5C provisionally, which is colder than any day last winter.

To find the last day as cold, you have to go back to November 23rd 2013. To find a colder day, you have to go back to April 1st, 2013 (1.9C).

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Yesterday averaged 2.5C provisionally, which is colder than any day last winter.

To find the last day as cold, you have to go back to November 23rd 2013. To find a colder day, you have to go back to April 1st, 2013 (1.9C).

It really shows how pitiful it's been for cold post Spring 2013 when you see that even the coldest day of "winter" is still warmer than the coldest day of the previous April.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Despite the Met forecasts saying average or slightly above average temps, we are now running comfortably below average, and will do for the foreseeable future.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 4.9C +0.4c above average interesting that the CET zone is cooler

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 0.8C while maxima look like reaching about 6C, so a drop to 4.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z NetWx model (both SR and MR) has the CET at:

 

4.6C to the 9th (5.8]

4.8C to the 10th (6.5)

4.9C to the 11th (6.1)

4.9C to the 12th (4.7)

4.7C to the 13th (2.4)

4.6C to the 14th (2.8]

 

A fairly average next 7 days keeps us slightly below the 61-90 and 81-10 average by the 14th.

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