south indian ocean Tropical Cyclone 02S

[Somerset Squall]

A disturbance that has tracked generally southwestwards from the central south Indian Ocean to it's current location about 400 miles northeast of Mauritius has finally become organised enough for JTWC to initiate advisories. 02S has winds of 35kts. Almost 50kts of shear was affecting the system a couple of days ago, but shear has eased to about 10-20kts now. This is still displacing convection to the west of the LLCC. Shear is not expected to ease any further, so any strengthening of 02S should be modest as best. The system is heading expected to curve southwards and hit Mauritius in a few days time, or at least get very close. In a couple of days, waters cool along track and shear is set to rise again, causing weakening.

[Somerset Squall]

02S did not strengthen, and instead got declared a remnant low by JTWC yesterday. Shear increased again, stripping the LLCC of convection. The remnant low continues to slip south into colder water, so regeneration is not expected.