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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

PS Am I the only one who watches model runs through your fingers when things are looking promising?

 

Yes you are, I watch from behind the sofa 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

The latest Met Office blog highlights the risk of wintry showers in the North & East on Christmas Day. BUT - I found this very interesting:

"It is important to note, however, that there’s still a chance we could see very different weather for Christmas Day. Here at the Met Office, we look at a range of computer model outcomes and a very small number of them do suggest a different picture, giving a forecast of stormy weather across the UK. Although this is currently at odds with the strongest signal from the forecast, we will closely monitor this and other possible solutions over the coming days to see if the likelihoods change"

 

This would suggest to me, that the Met Office are actually following the ECM at this range, when the 00z generated these two charts, the first for Christmas Day, the latter for Boxing Day:

 

post-8895-0-86465900-1418827750_thumb.pn  post-8895-0-06856300-1418827771_thumb.pn

 

Obviously the only thing at error there is the timing of the low on Boxing Day, with the Met Office stating the most likely timing would be one day earlier.

 

I find this very interesting, obviously there are many other models which the Met Office do use, but it would seem to me that they're using the ECM

 

Perhaps Ian F could shed some light?

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

You can smell something is afoot when there is over 400 people viewing the model thread at 2.30pm.

Eyes down for the 12z suite soon. Netweather is awesome and thanks to all involved behind the scenes that keep this great site up and running.

PS Am I the only one who watches model runs through your fingers when things are looking promising?

 

Not bloody likely. I shut my eyes and pray for guidance.

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Going to lock this one in the next 30 minutes and open a fresh thread in time for the 12z's.

 

Fair enough. 17 days into Dec and we're already at 129 pages lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Perhaps Ian F could shed some light?

 

At this rate we wont need the Models!  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

The latest Met Office blog highlights the risk of wintry showers in the North & East on Christmas Day. BUT - I found this very interesting:

"It is important to note, however, that there’s still a chance we could see very different weather for Christmas Day. Here at the Met Office, we look at a range of computer model outcomes and a very small number of them do suggest a different picture, giving a forecast of stormy weather across the UK. Although this is currently at odds with the strongest signal from the forecast, we will closely monitor this and other possible solutions over the coming days to see if the likelihoods change"

 

This would suggest to me, that the Met Office are actually following the ECM at this range, when the 00z generated these two charts, the first for Christmas Day, the latter for Boxing Day:

 

attachicon.gifecm1.png  attachicon.gifecm2.png

 

Obviously the only thing at error there is the timing of the low on Boxing Day, with the Met Office stating the most likely timing would be one day earlier.

 

I find this very interesting, obviously there are many other models which the Met Office do use, but it would seem to me that they're using the ECM

 

Perhaps Ian F could shed some light?

Ian F gave a update earlier a few pages back.

Here it is:-

Addition to my earlier post: in summary, UKMO note very little support "as yet" for the deepening frontal depression in 00z EC DET (= circa 10% ENS) and ditto for severe wx seen in GFS-P. However, developments remain under close scrutiny, obviously, given "...natural interest in festive period wx".

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

At this rate we wont need the Models!  :)

 

:rofl: he's by far the most qualified poster here though! Nice guy too!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Yes it's rapidly becoming a default position. If I was IF I would keep a very low profile.

Oh I don't know, he pops in when he has something to say , I doubt he would ever feel pressured by anyone on here.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

:rofl: he's by far the most qualified poster here though! Nice guy too!

actually, that's an inaccurate statement.....there are several professional forecasters who post regularly in the model thread

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Slightly further out but the polar vortex looks to be heading towards North America. Now surely that wouldn't be a great sign for the uk.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Slightly further out but the polar vortex looks to be heading towards North America. Now surely that wouldn't be a great sign for the uk.

Further out on what model ?

And I thought the vortex was heading over this side not state side ?

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Further out on what model ?

And I thought the vortex was heading over this side not state side ?

the gfs 06z run click on northern hemisphere outlook.
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

the gfs 06z run click on northern hemisphere outlook.

Just a thought Terrier.If you posted charts to back up your comments it may be easier for people to decipher.

 

Up to 192z and that is further than reliable, the core of the vortex is not over the states or Canada

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

Edited by winterof79
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