Winter 2014-15 thread

[Thunderbolt_]

Well it's now December and that means that winter 2014-15 is now well underway! We already have some chilly weather to look forward to (if that's what you're looking for) this week with one or two snow flurries likely on the higher ground, and more seasonal temperatures for the lower ground.

 

Discuss...

[Lauren]

Let's hope for a more fruitful winter than 2013-2014!

[iand61]

After last years attempt, even a couple of early morning dustings of snow and the odd ice day would be an improvement.

It was the only 3 month winter period where I did not see any lying snow at home.

A bit in mid November 2013 and nothing since and even the dire winters of the late 80's and 90's delivered something.

[Thunderbolt_]

Most likely to not come to fruition since it's out on Friday, but the BBC gave me a bit of eye candy before...

 

[Hocus Pocus]

After last years poor mans winter I'll settle for a few dustings of snow and some frosty nights and days, secretly I want a Daily Express winter armageddon.

[iand61]

After last years poor mans winter I'll settle for a few dustings of snow and some frosty nights and days, secretly I want a Daily Express winter armageddon.

No what we want is the Express to be forecasting a mild winter with little in the way of wind and rain.

Or as they would say... Britain braced for the dullest most mediocre winter since records began.

[Skullzrulerz]

Well its goodbye autumn and hello winter

 

What will this winter bring???

Hopefully not a washout like last one please.

[SE Blizzards]

Gavin P has issued his Winter 2014/15 forecast. 

 

If you haven't the time to watch the whole video, the Main headlines are:

 

Relatively mild first half of Winter, then becoming progressively colder into the second half.

Overall UK probably slightly milder than average, but significantly colder than last Winter.

Maybe a blocked pattern emerging later on after a mid Winter SSW, which should allow much more prolonged cold for February.

Snowfall close to average, but there maybe more during the 'fighting' of December and particularly January than in February, when the overall pattern turns cold and blocked.

A very interesting Winter on the way with something for everyone if this forecast is correct.

 

[Hocus Pocus]

What I would like to see is heights located over Greenland and a trough to our SW, for me this gives the majority of the UK a good chance of seeing some of the white stuff. I know a lot on here love a Beast from the East but a lot of us in the West rarely benefit from them unless the synoptics are perfectly aligned to deliver. Whatever the weather throws here's to an exciting season of model watching.

[SE Blizzards]

Also, interesting video from Simon Keeling today.

 

 

 

...But can us 'Coldies' really trust the CFS?????

[Mark Neal.]

C-oldies F-un S-tation. 

 

I'm with the rest of you, just hoping for an improvement than last years poor show for cold/snow!

[gsteruk]

This year already feels better than last year - no science it just feels like winter is here a little lol

[Mark Neal.]

This year already feels better than last year - no science it just feels like winter is here a little lol

Not hard to beat! ha We already have 4 frosts so far which feels like more than most of last winter really..

[fUnKy]

Just a good solid winter would be great.. a snow day or two. Anything else a bonus, anything less a disappointment.

[Mark Neal.]

Just a good solid winter would be great.. a snow day or two. Anything else a bonus, anything less a disappointment.

Set your expectations low, and you will more than likely be happily surprised (Impossible i know!)

[fUnKy]

Set your expectations low, and you will more than likely be happily surprised (Impossible i know!)

One day would be fine then. If you get it where you are I'll get a snow day. Live in bucks, work in wilts

[Mark Neal.]

One day would be fine then. If you get it where you are I'll get a snow day. Live in bucks, work in wilts

I'd settle for a few days of snow falling/lying! 

[throwoff]

It's already a better year than last in my opinion.

Plenty of chilly evenings and a couple of frosty starts.

[DiagonalRedLine]

Dear Winter, now that you're here, I want you to...

 

> Not be like Winter 2013/14

> Not be like Winter 1998/99

> Not be like Winter 1988/89

> Not be like Winter 2007/08

> Be either Winter 1978/79, Winter 1946/47, Winter 1962/63 or Winter 2009/10

 

Thank you.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder what the ECM 32 control is saying, it should be nearly out now, any info anyone please, PM's welcome if your not allowed to make public.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z on the money, mostly westerlies. nothing especially cold for the South! Dec is probably the month of the year when the average pressure is at its lowest, and westerlies are at their most frequent

 

in FI signs of that wind event, the netweather forecast mentioned, especially on the parallel

[Geordiesnow]

Ironically around this time last year, we did have a signficant cold Northerly which bought Snow Showers to Northern and Eastern Scotland but sadly it was short lived and it kinda was a teaser because the rest of the winter was kind of forgetful regarding snowfall. 

 

I enjoyed last winter in terms of we had some deep lows and that but snowfall was horrific(just a light dusting from a short snow shower at night was the best we got), lets hope this winter can deliver a significant Northerly... really think Northerly which are due North from the Arctic are becoming rarer these days. 

[Summer of 95]

Dear Winter, now that you're here, I want you to...

 

> Not be like Winter 2013/14

> Not be like Winter 1998/99

> Not be like Winter 1988/89

> Not be like Winter 2007/08

> Be either Winter 1978/79, Winter 1946/47, Winter 1962/63 or Winter 2009/10

 

Thank you. 

1988/9 had already had a decent snowfall by this stage, shame there was nothing else

Please not 2009/10! In many ways that one was just as maddening as 13/14; snowing everywhere except here time and again. Thank whatever for December 2010.

A moderately snowy one like 1993-4 would do, even one with one snowy spell like 2006/7 or a couple of days in each month like 2003/4 would be an improvement on last year. But the worst one of all was surely 1991/2, the one where I don't recall a single flake falling.

[Mark Neal.]

I wonder what the ECM 32 control is saying, it should be nearly out now, any info anyone please, PM's welcome if your not allowed to make public.

Ian Fergusson has posted snippet in Model thread - Last post on page 4- link here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81934-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-winter/?p=3078916

[feb1991blizzard]

Ian Fergusson has posted snippet in Model thread - Last post on page 4- link here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81934-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-winter/?p=3078916

 

Yes Ive seen it, cheers, I do have slight concerns now, itchy feet shall we say, you would think at least a small signal would be coming through but he says very few members showing anything, I wonder what the state of the stratosphere is like by the end of the run, not a time for a knee jerk 'winters over' or toys out the pram reaction yet but I will feel much more comfortable if GFS FI starts to show a warming at the top of the stratosphere in the next few days.