Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[johnholmes]

The best Xmas run so far (P) sees the -10c isotherm entering Scotland late Christmas day -

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfs-1-198.png?12

 

A band of sleet & slow pushing SE

 

S

 

slow pushing south Steve-obviously getting excited and hitting the wrong button!

 

 

mods/admin=any reason why this is posted x2, noticed this happening several times, indeed x3 earlier today?

thanks

John

Edited December 17, 2014 by johnholmes

[karlos1983]

The GFS 12z is quite messy beyond Christmas day, but it maintains a cold theme right through to New Year with frontal/trough activity over the country under embedded cold air, and heights remaining strong over Greenland - with low heights trying to undercut these.

 

Indeed it would be quite a snowy picture for the north depending on where precipitation takes place.

 

Well you weren't wrong, what a mess that turned out to be.

[Mucka]

GEM going for a Xmas day storm.

 

[easton888]

er, hello blocking

[karlos1983]

GFS (P) could be very good in deep Fl

 

Get the Shorts out in West Greenland, nice bit of WAA 

 

Edited December 17, 2014 by karlos1983

[Barry12]

Widespread snow on the 27th and 28th of December if the GFS 12z is correct

 

[Biggin]

 

 

Comparing the 06z with the 12z GFS(p) it seems the 12Z is a "colder quicker" run  up to the 23rd to my untrained eye. (esp for Southerners)

Edited December 17, 2014 by Biggin

[Mucka]

GEM maybe wet and windy Xmas day but it is stunning at day 10.

 

 

No way is that a toppler.

Edited December 17, 2014 by Mucka

[weather_it_will]

mods/admin=any reason why this is posted x2, noticed this happening several times, indeed x3 earlier today?

thanks

John

It's a bug with the Iphone/Ipad. You can always tell an Apple user on any forum.

[karlos1983]

Come on Scandi!! 

 

[Banbury]

GEM maybe wet and windy Xmas day but it is stunning at day 10.

 

Which isn't a million miles from where GFSP wans to take us

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

[mushymanrob]

must addmitt... this smacks of december 1981 !

 

 

however.... i do think its way to premature to start getting excited just yet, 'the event' should it happen is still in fi, note the ecm and gfs 06z dont agree about the severity of this ridging later next week.

 

premature excitement often leads to disappointment and moaning in reality.

[The Post-modern Winter]

must addmitt... this smacks of december 1981 !

 

Rtavn3002.gif

 

however.... i do think its way to premature to start getting excited just yet, 'the event' should it happen is still in fi, note the ecm and gfs 06z dont agree about the severity of this ridging later next week.

 

premature excitement often leads to disappointment and moaning in reality.

 

You must always be prematurely excited then Mushy. . 

[Summer Sun]

Although not the depths of last night the GFS P snow depth charts continue to paint a pretty picture for snow, Scotland has a good chance of a white Christmas though its still looking touch and go for the rest of the UK

 

 

By boxing day evening the snow is widespread in the north

 

 

By Saturday 27th the snow starts to fall further south

 

 

Precipitation charts

 

 

Boxing day could be very cold for some with temperatures well below freezing in parts of Scotland, these are the maximum temps

 

 

Minimum temps go into minus double figures

 

 

Into the 27th and the UK is widely in the cold air its only the far south west which holds onto higher temps (around 6c)

 

 

So all remains on course for a cold and snowy spell to develop next week

 

[gottolovethisweather]

The GFS P 12z is a rolling.

 

The 10mb stratosphere projection as per yesterday at t+90 (Saturday 20th December 0600hrs) were as shown below.

 

 

Some 24 hours, thereby the timeframe is t+66 and we have the following, no sizeable difference that I can see.

 

 

By t+144 which in real time is Tuesday 23rd December 1200hrs, the first hints of Temperature warming to a deeper orange shading are starting to show up. *As I stated yesterday, refer to other posters for more expertise on this aspect BUT suffice to say, things NH speaking are sticking to plan by this date.

 

 

Finally for a bit of fun, t+240 from yesterday's post is of course now residing at t+216, so for Boxing Day 1200hrs we were expecting the following Stratosphere 10hpa reading.

 

 

The reality from today's 12z for Boxing Day 1200hrs is as shown below.

 

 

By the above date, the 10hpa reading is actually slightly on the wane to something cooler but given it had already warmed above this level around Christmas Day itself, I wouldn't read too much into that fact alone. More appropriately the Boxing Day NH 500mb & SLP picture looks like this.

 

 

As opposed to yesterday's 12z, when the setup was as shown below,

 

 

 

 

I'll let you make up your own mind as to whether the above hints at a progression to a colder pattern post-Christmas but I know what I believe the NWP outputs are trying to tell us even though it sits at D9 onwards. Furthermore, I have deliberately not shown surface specifics for the UK at such a range as it is only by this Saturday at the earliest that we will broadly know what is a consistent signal for our own locale come the big day itself, so patience continues to be the key word I'm afraid.

Edited December 17, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[SMU]

must addmitt... this smacks of december 1981 !

 

Rtavn3002.gif

 

however.... i do think its way to premature to start getting excited just yet, 'the event' should it happen is still in fi, note the ecm and gfs 06z dont agree about the severity of this ridging later next week.

 

premature excitement often leads to disappointment and moaning in reality.

 

YES.

 

You read my mind.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=2&month=12&hour=0&year=1981&map=4&mode=2

 

the GFS (P)

 

has sub -4c air in England from 162

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfs-1-162.png?12

 

All the way until 348

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfs-1-348.png?12

 

that's over 8 days.....

[summer blizzard]

History tells us that the models will push this system south so probably into France but this is a great snow event for the North and Midlands.

 

[West is Best]

Well what a stunning 12z GFS. Looking at midnight Christmas Eve is really quite remarkable. I'm not saying that's a massive snow event but mild it ain't.

[Backtrack]

YES.

 

You read my mind.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=2&month=12&hour=0&year=1981&map=4&mode=2

 

the GFS (P)

 

has sub -4c air in England from 162

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfs-1-162.png?12

 

All the way until 348

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfs-1-348.png?12

 

that's over 8 days.....

 

The consistency is starting to form a solid trend now Steve. Fair play to you and your winter forecast so far. Everything is falling into place for a very merry Christmas for many now with many cold fans tantalizingly close to getting the only present they really wanted!

 

Not many can argue with a chart like this to end the year:

 

All eyes to the ECM later, this is a crucial one.

Edited December 17, 2014 by Backtrack

[Backtrack]

At the moment still not much hope for us southerners, maybe abit cold but northerlys never produce for us, we really need a north easterly or a beastly to really freeze south of oxford line.

 

There was a bit of everything on the 12z for everyone mate. Here's one for you from the Parallel:

[mountain shadow]

Crucial E tonight. Really need to see a cleaner evolution on the Greenland ridge and no pesky short waves

[ukpaul]

At the moment still not much hope for us southerners, maybe abit cold but northerlys never produce for us, we really need a north easterly or a beastly to really freeze south of oxford line.

 

This chart would likely bring snow to the south. I'm up in the North West until the 27th so the weather's odds on to screw up my plans (as per last year).

 

[Biggin]

At the moment still not much hope for us southerners, maybe abit cold but northerlys never produce for us, we really need a north easterly or a beastly to really freeze south of oxford line.

Or a channel low ?? I thought I saw a lp off the approches on the GFS but cant find it atm.

 

Edit maybe not soz

Edited December 17, 2014 by Biggin

[easton888]

what time is the ECM?

[Summer Sun]

what time is the ECM?

 

18:00 to 19:00