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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

This is precisely what IF was referring to earlier.The METO were keeping an eye on this storm development which first appeared on the ECM 00z run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121700/ECM1-216.GIF?17-12

now GEM and UKMO as far as it goes have it

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014121712/gem-0-186.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014121712/UN144-21.GIF?17-18

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014121612/J192-21.GIF?16-0

JMA also in on the act 

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

Amazing set of models this evening, would love to see the ECM show a stella 12z run now. Strong agreement now on the mid Atlantic high ridging into Greenland with cold arctic air flooding South on its eastern flank over the UK. :)

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Well the 12Z just rocked! The Greenland ridging is just not getting a chance to dig in so this will be an interesting period of model evolution for ther period between Xmas day and New year.

 

My esitmate for low level snow on Xmas day.. Scotland 60%, England 50%, Wales 50%

 

Crucial E tonight. Really need to see a cleaner evolution on the Greenland ridge and no pesky short waves

 

Those shortwaves developing off the north coast bringing lots of snowy goodness from boxing day onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Short ensembles for Manchester (ish). Quite a high level of agreement.

 

graphe3_1000_248_37___.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Not sure why the ECM 12z is being touted as crucial. There is a lot of water to flow under the bridge before these cold synoptics get into the reliable time frame.

 

Bang on, whereas the overall trend for the key climatological signs are even more crucial IF things are to fall in place for our little island.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

what time is the ECM?

18:00 to 19:00

:)

Just to add to this, in Spring and Summer, the likes of the ECMWF and GFS update an hour later (after the clocks go forward an hour BST). In case you're interested, you can find out more about the model update times here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/ :) Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

At D9 on the ensembles about 30% have no Atlantic/Greenland Ridge and these are represented by this: post-14819-0-62656900-1418837503_thumb.p

 

So a good sign that the amplification has now moved the mean. Lots of variation on how the ridge develops still after D10.

 

From stormy: post-14819-0-35412000-1418837670_thumb.p Snowy: post-14819-0-22529800-1418837682_thumb.p Drier: post-14819-0-20865400-1418837703_thumb.p

 

All sorts of shenanigans further out: post-14819-0-43266300-1418837925_thumb.p Spread says it all after D11: post-14819-0-83301800-1418837975_thumb.p

 

So cold uppers on the way from Christmas Eve and after that lots of scenarios.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I must admit I find some of this amusing. Take the P for example. The charts that are giving rise to snowfest fantasies are in F1 which are the spawn of the devil according to the usual advocates. The low that is causing this appears to have spawned east of Greenland at T144, appears SE of Iceland at T204 and Scotland at T234 and travels south in time for an ice festival on the Thames.  Now the chances of that replicating tomorrow are almost zilch let alone in nine days time.

Charts weatherbell

 

post-12275-0-98726200-1418838529_thumb.p

post-12275-0-45139700-1418838539_thumb.p

post-12275-0-16610900-1418838550_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

I must admit I find some of this amusing. Take the P for example. The charts that are giving rise to snowfest fantasies are in F1 which are the spawn of the devil according to the usual advocates. The low that is causing this appears to have spawned east of Greenland at T144, appears SE of Iceland at T204 and Scotland at T234 and travels south in time for an ice festival on the Thames.  Now the chances of that replicating tomorrow are almost zilch let alone in nine days time.

Charts weatherbell

presumably the drivers will be using wet weather tyres for grip?......sorry

 

so, some nice looking outputs for cold weather lovers out there, and the trend for it continues......next up the ECM....let's see what that model has to offer?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I must admit I find some of this amusing. Take the P for example. The charts that are giving rise to snowfest fantasies are in F1 which are the spawn of the devil according to the usual advocates. The low that is causing this appears to have spawned east of Greenland at T144, appears SE of Iceland at T204 and Scotland at T234 and travels south in time for an ice festival on the Thames.  Now the chances of that replicating tomorrow are almost zilch let alone in nine days time.

Charts weatherbell

Hardly an ice fest.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-1-324.png?12

Infact many of the colder charts on offer tonight are well in to FI and should be taken with a pinch of salt until in to semi reliable....as nice as they are

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Speaking of salt, I think the local councils will be using lots of it next week. It's not just the 12z trending wintry, the earlier runs today we're too and as is always the case when a cold spell is looming, we will have a few bumps in the road but from my point of view, there is nothing going to stop the UK from having its first major taste of winter..and perfect timing too. :-)

I do not see any cold until at least next Thursday and that is 7 days + away.We have been here before.The output has promise and the period after Christmas looks interesting to say the least :cold: .Lets see if ECM can be consistant for once.

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

From an IMBY perspective nothing to see here, will take an awful lot of shifting south for us to come into play, but the trend is cold to very cold and snowy

I really woudnt worry or consider any specifics at such a long range.Come the weekend we could be anywhere regarding the nh profile for better or worse!!Given the amount of runs on all models the chances of any run coming to fruition at a 7-10 day forecast are prob zero imo.For any newbies id say follow the fax and ukmo for surface conditions and the rest for the trend ie nhp ete.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Same overall idea, just a little delayed on the 12z ECM

 

ECM1-168.GIF?17-0

 

Some nagging shortwaves on the tip of Greenland spoiling a cleaner retrogression.

 

A cold Christmas day across the board

 

ECM0-192.GIF?17-0

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

It's a bug with the Iphone/Ipad. You can always tell an Apple user on any forum.

 

mine was done from a pc?

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Not bad for Christmas day

 

ECH1-192.GIF?17-0ECH0-192.GIF?17-0

 

-4's covering the whole of the UK

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