Possible Winter Storm December 27th

[pinball wizard]

This is what you get when 65million of us eat Turkey for dinner!

 

 

 

[Mapantz]

Here's a concerning chart..

Lot's of unresolved details but certainly an interesting period of weather to come!

[pinball wizard]

Here's a concerning chart..

viewimage.png

Lot's of unresolved details but certainly an interesting period of weather to come!

 

7 metre waves in the North Sea could be devastating for areas of East Anglia. It will be interesting to see when Met O warnings/advisories start to rear their heads. 

[vladthemert]

7 metre waves in the North Sea could be devastating for areas of East Anglia. It will be interesting to see when Met O warnings/advisories start to rear their heads. 

 

 

Lincs, Norfolk, Suffolk and Kent certainly would get really bad situation on current models.  I am preying for over egged system at the moment else I will need a boat for christmas.

[Woollymummy]

Any ideas welcome please: my sister and her boyfriend are booked on an evening English Channel ferry crossing 28th Dec, should they try and rearrange travel?

[Daniel*]

7 metre waves in the North Sea could be devastating for areas of East Anglia. It will be interesting to see when Met O warnings/advisories start to rear their heads.

East coast is soft and porous prone to coastal erosion many metres of land will be lost to the sea risk of properties being lost, I think a red warning may be issued by the METO. In the event this happens, fortunately such occurances are really rare - but they do happen. And to be truthful overdue.

[Skullzrulerz]

I had to the bad feeling that if the winter storm does happen the east coast and some areas of the UK are going to get battered HARD. 

 

However there is time for downgrades or upgrades it just depends on what you like to be honest.

 

At the moment it will start as the weak nibble LP west of western Ireland and then by the east coast and then a bang on storm.

[on the coast]

East coast is soft and porous prone to coastal erosion many metres of land will be lost to the sea risk of properties being lost, I think a red warning may be issued by the METO. In the event this happens, fortunately such occurances are really rare - but they do happen. And to be truthful overdue.

 

The long range forecast by the Met Office says gales for the North and West, nothing mentioned about the East coast? Are they on to something I wonder?

[Skullzrulerz]

The long range forecast by the Met Office says gales for the North and West, nothing mentioned about the East coast? Are they on to something I wonder?

 

They could surely be on the something there however i think the models are having a hard time due to the patten changes and the so called 'Cold Spell' just after Xmas day so i think a lot of watching is needed.

[pinball wizard]

Any ideas welcome please: my sister and her boyfriend are booked on an evening English Channel ferry crossing 28th Dec, should they try and rearrange travel?

 

If it's too bad the sailings will be cancelled. I have sailed from Hook of Holland to Harwich across the North Sea in a Force 10-11 wind and to be honest the ferries these days are pretty sturdy things, most of them have special ballast systems which counteract the effect of the waves so unless they go onto the top deck or look out the window they'll be fine! 

[Candice]

East coast is soft and porous prone to coastal erosion many metres of land will be lost to the sea risk of properties being lost, I think a red warning may be issued by the METO. In the event this happens, fortunately such occurances are really rare - but they do happen. And to be truthful overdue.

To be honest, it's hardly overdue. Here on the Norfolk coast we had a really bad surge on the 5th December 2013, the effects of which are still apparent. Many properties were lost, particularly at Hemsby.

[Daniel*]

To be honest, it's hardly overdue. Here on the Norfolk coast we had a really bad surge on the 5th December 2013, the effects of which are still apparent. Many properties were lost, particularly at Hemsby.

Agreed but last winter had the hallmarks of such event... 1953 repeat if we did not have the flood defences, that is currently being modelled, but I stress this is 6 days away but what is being shown is severe.

edit: latest runs indicate a downgrade for eastern counties as the low shifts further north

28th also showing interest

Edited December 21, 2014 by Daniel*

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I think it's all a matter of watch with care and hope it follows the ECM evolution.

 

Having seen the way Cromer was affected last year I'd prefer this not to happen, but nature will do what it wants

[knocker]

Excellent update by the GFS (P) with the low (at the moment) traveling ENE. Of course this is still way down the line. The GFS  still bringing it down to Denmark.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

Edited December 21, 2014 by knocker

[alexisj9]

Excellent update by the GFS (P) with the low (at the moment) traveling ENE. Of course this is still way down the line. The GFS  still bringing it down to Denmark.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

Every update today has had that low modeled differently, but I think this is the best way, I hope something like this happens as most of the dangers with the other tracks are not a factor. 

[hec1]

it'll be downgraded in every run, we never get any interesting storms like that one

[Spikecollie]

Any ideas welcome please: my sister and her boyfriend are booked on an evening English Channel ferry crossing 28th Dec, should they try and rearrange travel?

Come with us on Eurotunnel!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Not taking any runs for granted until it is within 3 days maximum. 

This event is predicated upon when and where this shortwave makes the break-off in the Atlantic. Scary to think by my untrained eye that it is within 100 miles of the shortwave break-off in the Atlantic as to where this system will effect. 

This one will be for the Hi-Res models to decide I feel. The met office will be watching this one by the minute.

[Skullzrulerz]

it'll be downgraded in every run, we never get any interesting storms like that one

Since when did people knew of the future I may ask?

Incase you didn't know last year around this they were in fact "interesting storms" but more like "extreme storms" that were petty much bombing the uk esp Somerset which people's homes were flooded and there were not going to have a Christmas in there own homes.

Call that a interesting storm.

But you could be right through maybe this storm will be downgraded over time and may just end up like a typical winter storm.

This may not be like any of the storms we had last year.

We wait and see if it upgrades or downgrades or it might just stay the same

[Weather-history]

GFS 12Z run is suggesting that the band of rain will gradually turn to snow over the course of Saturday. Coupled with the gusty winds, it could be a pretty nasty day with heavy rain and blizzards over much of the north and over the hills.

 

Gusts.png PrecType.png SnowRisk.png

It has to be said UKMO and ECM 12z suggest not.

I get the feeling that GFS is overdoing those 850hpas digging in and won't be anything as cold as they suggest, assuming that is right with the timing, track and development of the low.

[tinybill]

well all i  know this storm  could hit the east coast  with  the position its in the north sea   27/28

[Hurricane Andrew]

I like a storm as much as any other here, this not just about travellers concerns here, If the forecasts stay the same, it wont be good for us on the east coast.  We going to have to pray those storm defence's can hold a monster.  They barely held last years december storm surge with breaches in hull and boston.    As I understand they been repaired thankfully but they not improved.

i agree let hope for the best and not the worst outcome from this considering your area pretty much escaped the worst of last year storm surge compare to places like boston who got it pretty hard

[Skullzrulerz]

Knowing this may not happen 

 

This chart shows the east coast getting some snow/rain just gone midnight.

 

 

Around the same time the snow total/cover.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2014 by Skulltheruler

[Woollymummy]

Spikecollie: "Come with us on Eurotunnel!" They would normally but left it too late to book the normal price tickets and were faced with BookedTooLateSoWeWillChargeYouWhateverWeLike:Ha! -price tickets, so theyopted for the boat/coach combo. I am so worried! :-(

[knocker]

The good news this morning is that both the GFS and GFS (P) have downgraded the storm. Both have it running east, the former does have notherlies in the North Sea but nothing too bad, and the P develops another low that crosses central England bringing some quite wet weather. Things can still change of course but the outlook is better as of now. The outlook a brief interlude of HP with a  SE from the P so quite chilly before SWs once again.

Charts courtesy weatherbell