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Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

There are three features on this chart from the GFS(P) that interest me in particular. This may or may not be something that will continue, we shall see.

1. Low pressure extends deeper into Southern Europe

2. The high pressure in Eastern Europe extends further north

3. Perhaps most crucially for any long term cold prospects, there is greater extension of the Atlantic high over the top of the low pressure to our east

gfs-0-156.png?18

Edited by Joe Levy
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

But tws... Winter 75-6 wasnt cold outside the odd day or two..

 

I'm pretty sure TWS is referring to storm surge potential?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

couple of points on the extended ecm

 

it looks much more mobile than previous suites and the operational at day 10 wouldnt be out of kilter. it doesnt seem to be sure what its up to as it shoves the weak high anomoly to our east soon after day 10. will take a few more runs but that height rise to our ne is more than just a hint now.

infact, the control is an odd run. it again ejects the azores low ne (probably delivering a snow event to the midlands as it tracks ne under the main depression headed out to our ne) and then brings two slider lows around the atlantic ridge as it waxes and wanes. the initial slider depression not unlike the op at day 10 but it then disrupts and tracks se. these pass across our sw and again, probably bring a couple of 'events'. this establishes a proper euro trough and heights build well to our north, subsequently extending se into scandi and bringing a blast of sub -10 uppers by the end of the run. very odd indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

Good evening,

Well I don't post much on here but I'm always on here daily reading through this thread as I find its very addictive.. Anyway looking at all the different models its very hard to decide how the weather pattern will turn out on the turn of the new year and on into January . Like a lot of people on here have said that they believe a cold spell will come at short notice and I also believe this will be the case.. To show this I will provide 2 links that show both how the winter or 1947 kicked off and the winter of 62/63. They are very interesting videos to watch and just go to show how how a cold spell can spring up from nowhere . The person doing these videos goes through to show you how the great winters started and he goes through each day right until the freeze finally gave up its grip. Don't give up hope and hopefully are time will come soon.

Winter 1947 and how it all started .

Winter 62/63

Edited by Siberian Xpress
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GFS (P) looking a bit better in relation to wintry potential, as the cold digs in a bit quicker and a bit further west, meaning the main cold hitting more of the UK.

 

post-213-0-43570400-1419200896_thumb.gif post-213-0-78384000-1419200898_thumb.gif post-213-0-18814600-1419200901_thumb.gif

 

post-213-0-08541600-1419201040_thumb.gif post-213-0-18461700-1419201043_thumb.gif

 

So the fat lady hasn't starting singing just yet.

 

Also seems to be better ridging around next weekend, when compared to some flatter runs earlier.

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

For those who are unaware, 31 Jan 1953 was a huge natural disaster IMBY. One of the worst in UK recorded history, but largely unremembered beyond East Anglia.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

Now this at 192 on the GFS OP!

 

Not entirely sure what to say to all this uncertainty...

gfs-0-192.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Fascinating model watch atm even though it is frustrating for cold lovers as any hints of possible cold weather seems to be downgraded as T0 approaches.I still think it is is unlikely that we get a Greenland High in the near future and feel that a Higher probability will be a Scandi High in early New Year. That Is just my hunch from following Models over the last 5/6 years and the only Great Greenland High that I can remember in this period was the infamous late Nov/December 2010 period.I don't think the pattern is like then and Met Office, who as others have stated, picked up on that great snowy period a good 10 days before it happened are not giving any indications of a repeat.Anyway,others far more knowledgable than me like Tamara and The Murrmeister are not really expecting anything until at least the last day or so of this month ,but more likely early Jan before a possible cold spell develops.

 

In the meantime,i advise people just to enjoy model watching.I love the snow and the wonderful scenes and images it produces as much as many on this wonderful forum but am realistic enough(esp living in the SE) to know that if we get 1 good 7-10 day spell of cold and snowy weather then I for one will be happy :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

For those who are unaware, 31 Jan 1953 was a huge natural disaster IMBY. One of the worst in UK recorded history, but largely unremembered beyond East Anglia.

1953 chart is scarily similar to what we may see next weekend  :unsure2: 

archives-1953-1-31-12-0.png

 

2014

 

gfs-0-156.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Anyone fancy doing a forecast for next saturday?

 

gfs..attachicon.gifgfs-0-144.png  ecm..attachicon.gifECM1-144.gif

Says it all really at moment, 2 of the main models and they are so different.. The mist still hasn't cleared. Can someone turn the light on.

That ECM Extended BA talks of is very interesting..

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couple of points on the extended ecm

 

it looks much more mobile than previous suites and the operational at day 10 wouldnt be out of kilter. it doesnt seem to be sure what its up to as it shoves the weak high anomoly to our east soon after day 10. will take a few more runs but that height rise to our ne is more than just a hint now.

infact, the control is an odd run. it again ejects the azores low ne (probably delivering a snow event to the midlands as it tracks ne under the main depression headed out to our ne) and then brings two slider lows around the atlantic ridge as it waxes and wanes. the initial slider depression not unlike the op at day 10 but it then disrupts and tracks se. these pass across our sw and again, probably bring a couple of 'events'. this establishes a proper euro trough and heights build well to our north, subsequently extending se into scandi and bringing a blast of sub -10 uppers by the end of the run. very odd indeed.

 

Hi BA

 

the ECM control not to desimilar to the OP 18z.... before it goes pete tong at 192.

 

S

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I keep getting bashed by mentioning some back edge snow? bewilders the mind. If anything GFS/GFSP are showing renewed possibility of a lengthy spell of snow for central/eastern england yes remote chance of it settling, but who honestly cares after the 2 years with no meaningful snow :clap: :w00t:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Certainly an improved parallel run as has been noted which is maintained into FI. (general synoptic compared to 12z)

 

gfsnh-0-222.png?18

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

But tws... Winter 75-6 wasnt cold outside the odd day or two..

Think he means the storms 

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

GFS (P) has near on white out conditions next Saturday...

 

gfs-2-144.png?18

 

ECM has us in a blowtorch next Saturday...

 

ECM1-144.GIF?21-0

 

I don't know which one of these models is correct, but one of them is going to have shed loads of egg on it's face next weekend! Maybe both?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Well god forbid that pv comes off on the 18z op!vomit inducing at best tbh altho the gfs p not as severe so far.giving me headache trying to fathom todays output out?anyone got a clue!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

1953 chart is scarily similar to what we may see next weekend  :unsure2: archives-1953-1-31-12-0.png

 

2014

 

gfs-0-156.png?18

In 1953 there was also an extremely high tide. That will not be the case on Dec 27 this year, the highest tides will have passed.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Hi BA

the ECM control not to desimilar to the OP 18z.... before it goes pete tong at 192.

S

I know what you mean Steve - broadly speaking bit it goes wrong at the important juncture. Tbh, the ECM control in tandem with the mean/anomolys sort of fits what the parallel is doing in week 2 with disruption and heights being thrown n just to our west. Very interesting

EDIT: just looking at the jet on the ECM day 10 op, it splits to our west so could easily disrupt se as the control does.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Anyone fancy doing a forecast for next saturday?

 

gfs..attachicon.gifgfs-0-144.png  ecm..attachicon.gifECM1-144.gif

That is a truly insane difference, but having seen the 18Zs from GFS, you don't get the feeling it will be completely wrong.

 

We need a bit of luck here. For instance, if we could get the low in the mid-Atlantic to think about moving eastwards rather westwards, we could trap heights to the north

gfs-0-144.png?18

Trouble is, there's barely a whiff of a jet in the Atlantic - fancy that!

gfs-5-150.png?18

Edited by rjbw
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

GFS (P) has near on white out conditions next Saturday...

 

gfs-2-144.png?18

 

ECM has us in a blowtorch next Saturday...

 

ECM1-144.GIF?21-0

 

I don't know which one of these models is correct, but one of them is going to have shed loads of egg on it's face next weekend! Maybe both?

I doubt the whiteout conditions to be honest , might be sleety at best for MBY

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