Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I'm trying to find judah cohens updated forecast but his site is offline due to technical issues , I'm hoping someone can give me a briefing as to what was said as there's some negativity surrounding it ?

[sorepaw1]

A clean slate

 

thanks CS

 

couldn't agree more because i witheld posting in the last one for the fear of jumping in between someones fueds,seen prams flung across the street never mind toys being thrown out of it,

 

all credit to the more experienced folk on here who try to explain the posabilities and outcomes of the models only to be pulled down when something doesn't show cold/snow wise or what they want to see

 

most of the time i only browse in here,does that tell you something?

 

any hows,please do keep a more level head chaps,we are all one comunity after all

 

just an ilustration of the jma chart that Steve murr aluded to as an example

 

J180-21.GIF

 

black arrow,negative tilted trough(facing se) bank

 

blue line,more ridging into greenland,bank

 

red arrow,a poss northeasterly later backing easterly,bank

 

all speculative @ that range but it is a possibility.

I have taken interest in this post as I have seen these possibilities myself .

[Alexis]

By + 144 is all but game over for cold fans, the Extreme North and NE / NW facing coasts would fair well for a time, but the Atlantic waits in the wings and the finger is on the reset button...

 

Look at it the UKMO on Wetterzentrale. The first thing I thought was look at that high pressure to the NE. It looks poised to follow the ECMWF in my view, not bring in the Atlantic. It's a lot harder to see on Meteociel!

Edited December 22, 2014 by Alexis

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I no Nick , we all knew the models would struggle with a pattern change , Tamara's post illustrated the volatility of the models as they get to grips with the drivers behind the scenes , but I don't think we/me realised how much they would struggle , big swings at relatively early frames . Which is why I really think it's completely pointless in posting endless charts of d16 mean charts buts that's another debate I really can't be arsed to get into again !

After my negative annalysis yesterday I'm feeling slighltly more positive going forward , mainly because there's a fairily significant warming happening high above our heads starting now and continuing for the next 10 days+? Models really haven't got a clue at the minute and signs are now starting to appear in the form of hights to our North east , not quite sure what's happeneds to the neg PDO does seem to have waned somewhat ?

But purely looking at analogues of past years , with a strong aluetian low in place that normally correlates with the siberian high , so maybe the excpected winter pattern getting its act together ?

What will that pattern change be?  Are they getting to grips with any pattern change? or are we going to plunge into more westerly ordinariness after Christmas and they are only getting to grips with a short term 'ripple'?  I sure hope the pattern change is a real goer.

Personally I think we can forget a GHP with that PV still riding any blows coming its way and I think it will need a SSW to knock it out?  I still think as I mentioned the other day that we may have to look east for cold into the New Year, which again is thwart with danger as any block not backed west enough leaves us into a very mild flow.

As regards to the storm at such short range it is interesting to see the differences and quite large differences for surface effect on the UK and Ireland too.

It looks like a cold Christmas at least which is nice near term and a good starting point....

 

BFTP

Edited December 22, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Downpour]

A lot better output this morning for those of us who like wintry weather in winter. Personally I am not looking past the low on 27 Dec despite some of the eye candy on offer from the ever cold-ramping GFSp on the nearer shores of Fantasy Island.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Downpour

[karlos1983]

I'm trying to find judah cohens updated forecast but his site is offline due to technical issues , I'm hoping someone can give me a briefing as to what was said as there's some negativity surrounding it ?

 

his server is probably mounted on the garden fence at the moment, 

[Newberryone]

Mods might be kind enough here on this occasion to permit this to go under the radar as it yet again illustrates how fluid the situation is right now in the NH..

 

This was the line being used by the Irish Met service which aired  earlier this morning..

 

Beyond St Stephen's day the outlook becomes much more uncertain. At the moment it looks like St Stephen's day will be dry to start with rain developing from the west later in freshening southerly winds. It looks likely to become milder again too but there is a large degree of uncertainty in the atmosphere beyond the short range.

[Barry12]

IDO, we don't know what will happen after day 6 with all the model divergence. Yet you make statements like 'January could be a long month', that is a bit misleading. You post day 16 charts to back up your views, which is rather pointless since they change everyday. Since it's Christmas why don't you post the day 16 GFS P chart, it might cheer you up

[Hocus Pocus]

IDO, we don't know what will happen after day 6 with all the model divergence. Yet you make statements like 'January could be a long month', that is a bit misleading. You post day 16 charts to back up your views, which is rather pointless since they change everyday. Since it's Christmas why don't you post the day 16 GFS P chart, it might cheer you up

But this is the MOD thread so what would you suggest he posted?

[Penrith Snow]

ECM clusters showing a predominantly mild and southwesterly theme as we head into the new year.

I wouldn't worry about that, it was only 3 days ago that the ENS predicted a good northerly between Christmas and New Year.

In these uncertain times go with the Operationals run at higher resolutions and even they suffer!

Funny how yesterday's JMA led the pack for much better charts this morning.

Andy

[Polar Maritime]

As long as it's on topic any chart can be posted.. Please be polite and considerate to other members, If you don't like some-ones post or it's not showing what 'you' want it to just ignore it, It really is that easy. And it's Christmas  :smiliz19:    

Edited December 22, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

It was a bit more than that, there was about a fortnight of cold weather late January to early February.

 

was there?... i recall a bitterly cold southeasterly but that didnt last too long, i was working outdoors and didnt get any snow/frost issues that winter. maybe differing parts of the coutry got something ...

[SLEETY]

ECM clusters showing a predominantly mild and southwesterly theme as we head into the new year.

Who cares..they could be showing 60MPH Easterly gales,and they would still be ignored.The models cant decide 4-5 days ahead yet,never mind  into next year!.I still think blocking high over Scandi seems the eventuall  outcome,and EC operational hinting at this now?

[10 Days Away]

Who cares..they could be showing 60MPH Easterly gales,and they would still be ignored.The models cant decide 4-5 days ahead yet,never mind  into next year!.I still think blocking high over Scandi seems the eventuall  outcome,and EC operational hinting at this now?

 

I don't think that would be ignored ...... Full RAMP 

[inghams85]

As posted yesterday and this time last week - Cool down 28th onwards, North Easterly then Easterly. The changes i've seen this morning have only increased my confidence on this. Watch this space

[Paul]

As a change of pace, and for a bit of fun - have a crack at the white christmas forecasting competition here:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82082-can-you-forecast-ukeire-white-christmas/

[mushymanrob]

 

there you go, as if by magic, out of the blue , just what i suggested might happen only last evening (post regarding the ecm output)

however, its not looking likely to verify if the ever reliable noaa 8-14 dayer is to be believed

 

which suggests the azores high ridging in towards us?

 

 

however, that is 11 odd days away and i suspect theres plenty of opportunity for high pressure to build and the noaa 500mb chart to change.

we have dodged (or failed) potential cold spells this far, id be surprised if we didnt cop for one all winter, so for those of you who are looking for something more wintry, theres alot to be hopeful for.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Still interest I believe for the big day itself, the models interesting trying to eek a more northerly element out of the flow

Along with 850s of -6C

This also comes with some quite heavy showers pushing in off the north sea

So maybe the chance of snow potentially at low levels in any heavier showers and definitely over higher ground.

For fun there is a thread to discuss whether there will be a white Christmas at some of the major airports dotted around the UK

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82082-can-you-forecast-ukeire-white-christmas/#entry3094360

 

I have posted my views (note I said yes to Newcastle and Norwich)  :smiliz19:

 

Beyond this, the GFS op continues to develop that low

Inevitable northerly as the low clears. Scrap that, the cold air gets cut off as the Azores high collapses much quicker.

 

The parallel on the other hand throws a real googly 

The low tracks across Scotland and keeps most mild for the coming weekend. The confusion continues.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[IDO]

GFS P has flipped in the near term and gone mild for the weekend: 

[frosty ground]

GFS P has flipped in the near term and gone mild for the weekend: gfs-0-138 (2).pnggfs-1-138.png

With Heights over Southern Greenland higher...... A Bit like the ECM from last week.

[Nick L]

The differences between the GFS and the GFS P at relatively short range are ludicrous.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The differences between the GFS and the GFS P at relatively short range are ludicrous.

 

and the difference at very early FI, say 150 between 00Z and 06Z on parallel

[karlos1983]

oh for the love of god, wtflip

 

about as consistent as my beloved Arsenal

Edited December 22, 2014 by karlos1983

[Yarmy]

00z Parallel for next Sunday:

 

 

06z Parallel for next Sunday:

 

 

All very strange and hard to have any confidence in the outcome. Christmas Day looks reasonably festive though with a frost and, egads, maybe even an snowflake IMBY.

[MR EXTREMES]

come on peeps this is the united kingdom theres no question that this winter so far has been close to something more exciting!

 

but the sad news is this has been same as recent years.

with even projected strat warmings failing.

 

it would be silly to right of the entire winter and of coarse we have had chillier than last year but in all honesty if you look at the run of winters recently they do seem to be moving back towards the 90s type.

 

solar activity has shown a marked increase in output and i suspect that most of this winter will have the repeated effects of a rather stubbon azore ridge and a euro ridge at times visiting the uk there for frost and fog could become the most likely feature.

 

the models are pretty certain on a cold snap for some perhaps even in the south.

i think average to cool periods do look most likely depending on how active the zonal flow can get.

 

i suspect if theres any chance of cold id lean more towards latter jan early feb but even this im skeptical about the strat events started pretty well but have decreased there influence alot and that the vortex has recovered some what couple this with the mjo its been rather frustrating showing that the weather jigsaw is much much more complex than even the greatest minds could imagine.

 

another winter another learning curve atleast now we can look at why things are not going to plan.

 

my chart of the weekend was last nights jma now that would of been perfect for the build up into jan.

 

still a week nao but this looks to turn positive at the start of 2015

also a clear split in the ao so the nao and ao are split but all things considered the positive ao and nao most likely are the form horse.

if we can get scandi heights i think this could work better for us with possibly easier under cuts.