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New Years Day 2015 Storm Discussion


Zenarcher
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland

    The models have shown for a few days now that on the 1st of January 2015 a low pressure system may deepen rapidly and arrive during the night of the 1st of January into the 2nd. At the moment the North West of Scotland seem to be in the direct path of this potential storm and its looking rather nasty it could be the storm of the winter 2014/2015.

     

    The GFS model currently has the far North West getting average speeds of 60mph with gusts of 90mph and more,

     

    post-6686-0-46632100-1419722194_thumb.pn

     

    post-6686-0-30407800-1419722195_thumb.pn

     

    There is a chance it could move further South still or even move further North and not affect us at all.

     

    A quick run through of what the other models are showing,

     

    ECM - Yesterday showed something to what the GFS currently has but its backed away from that idea today it shows it track over the South of Scotland as a much weaker system but still able to give strong winds to Northern England and Scotland.

     

    UKMO - Further North than the GFS and a lot further North than the ECM proving the track of the storm hasn't been pinned down yet. It would bring storm force winds to the far North.

     

    JMA - Takes the exact same route as the UKMO but less severe looking.

     

    Both the GEM and NAVGEM - Don't really take much of this storm at all and show it may come to nothing.

     

    CMA - Shows a very deep 940mb low hitting Northern Scotland bringing storm force winds to Scotland, Ireland and Northern England.

     

    CFS - Similar route as the GFS.

    Edited by weathermaster
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The GFS (P) this morning has it less intense and the GFS has it further north with Lerwick in the firing line. The situation is further complicated by another low zipping in from the west over Scotland by Sunday. In fact both the GFS runs are littered with possible storms up north.

    Charts courtesy weatherbell

    post-12275-0-51801800-1419746809_thumb.p

    post-12275-0-65526500-1419746827_thumb.p

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Quite a few of the 6z ensemble members are showing some really extreme looking charts, potentially a notable event for the NW of the UK! Probably be a few days before confidence grows regarding the track & intensity with still a fair bit of variation across the models atm. 

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=114

     

    ECM not making much of it at all on the 00z.

     

    post-9615-0-20984000-1419766561_thumb.gi

     

    UKMO has the strongest winds missing the mainland. 

     

    post-9615-0-28116300-1419766745_thumb.gi

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland

    GFS this morning keeps it to the NW of Scotland but has downgraded it from yesterday and the CMA also agrees with this route. The ECM, GEM and NAVGEM continue to not make much of this storm at all and don't really develop anything. The UKMO continues with what it was saying yesterday and has a deep low to the far NW of Scotland with the CFS showing the same thing.

     

    So we have still large disagreements over the track it will take at the moment either we will see better agreement later today or at least at some point tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I'm just hoping that all of the lows we can expect will take that northern route? The topography is better suited to such weather than the south and south west and the drainage from the hills is sculpted by such high intensity events?

     

    We can sit in the warm south westerlies!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland

    Most of the models have just updated to their 12z runs and overall there seems to be a large downgrade but there's still a chance something could develop.

     

    The old GFS model still has the storm hit the North West of Scotland bringing storm force winds. The new GFS model has completely backed down and doesn't develop anything at all. The UKMO looks similar to the old GFS model run and both the NAVGEM and GEM continue to not be interested. Over the next few hours the ECM, JMA and CMA will update it will be interesting to see if they agree.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    13/20 of the 12z GEFS develop a significant low which affects the N/NW of the UK, some don't make anything of it and others are less severe, all with varying tracks. Be interesting to see how the ECM handles things, UKMO looks to have altered the track further south from the previous run. 

     

    The GME tracks a rapidly deepening low over NW Scotland, not as intense but it would still produce gales or severe gales. 

     

    post-9615-0-17381900-1419789917_thumb.pn

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland

    ECM 12z run didn't make much of it and hardly shows it form at all. The JMA shows a low pressure system track across the South of Ireland and Southern England bringing gales to severe gales to those parts. The CMA shows it to the far north of Scotland bringing storm force winds there.

     

    Overall today the main models have downgraded it and there's a chance it may not come to much but some models point out it could head further South or further North and still be very windy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Seems the GFS is out on it's own with this deep low, ECM still refusing to develop anything and now the UKMO has dropped it backing the ECM

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    About 15/20 GEFS still keen on a significant depression.

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=90

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    The UKMO produce 3 scenarios with near equal weight for new year. 1. Low flattening out into a wave so heavy rain but not wind issues 2. Deepening explosively near NNW uk and the #weatherbomb circus takes off again in a northern way. 3. Low deepens earlier in Atlantic and isn't as bad but still brings wet and windy weather from NW to UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    NetWeather's own medium range model has this for wind gusts at +87hrs, on the afternoon of New Year's Day:

    attachicon.gif29th Dec NWM +87hrs Gusts.png

    Well worth a watch :)

    That would bring stormy weather for N England northwards. Interesting, will it or won't it which model has this one right!? Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Hmmm, defo need to keep a close eye on New Year's Day for a potential winter storm/ #weatherbomb clipping Scotland. 06z GFS op and quite a few of the ECM EPS members have a rapidly deepening low on Thursday tracking NE just north of Scotland, GFS shows the low deepening explosively in the left exit region of a 160 knt+ jet streak. UKMO and ECM ops show just a wave for now, so some uncertainty for now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland

    A few changes in the models this morning,

     

    The GFS still seems very keen on bringing widespread severe gale force winds to most of the country and the Northern parts seeing the worst. However the UKMO, ECM, JMA, GME, GEM and NAVGEM all don't develop much to anything at all, this may be the most likely outlook due to the huge support from a large number of models. The CFS and CMA show the most extreme solutions this morning and keep a deep low pressure system passing either near or over Scotland bringing storm force winds.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Looks bad, needs to be kept a close eye on as if it sinks a little more south it'll be the whole country that gets effected.

     

    Some of the storms on this morning 6z GFS & GFS P look to hit further south with one storm in particular looking very scary indeed for southern areas later in the period, I think on the 9th January or thereabouts but sure it'll chop and change....I'd post a link to the images but don't know how i'm afraid but it looks like Burns Day Storm/1987 storm all over again if it verifies.

    Edited by TwisterGirl81
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    Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, to a point .....
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent

    Long way off and unreliable timeframe and granted haven't been doing this long, but this is one of the scariest charts I have seen 😱

    post-20957-0-45732800-1419859335_thumb.p

    Edited by stubbys
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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Long way off and unreliable timeframe and granted haven't been doing this long, but this is one of the scariest charts I have seen

     

    It's got Burns Day Storm or the great storm of 1987 written all over it, I'll be keeping my eye on that....

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Long way off and unreliable timeframe and granted haven't been doing this long, but this is one of the scariest charts I have seen

     

    That low exits the eastern seaboard on the 6th and then brushes past just north of the Azores on the 8th on the nose of a strong and quite a southerly tracking jet, deepening very rapidly thereafter as it heads NE to the UK around the base of the upper trough.

     

    Rather strong temp gradient along the baroclinic zone separating cold polar air seeping out of NE Canada and warm moist air coming up from Bermuda next week, so no surprise that the models are spinning up these beasts.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    It's got Burns Day Storm or the great storm of 1987 written all over it, I'll be keeping my eye on that....

    I hope it's not that bad! Had a surprisingly violent storm two nights ago in London, blew next door's fence down! I just helped them put it back up! I should have checked the models first :wallbash:  Maybe we should have left the repairing until spring! :doh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland

    GFS 12z has just updated while the storm still seems to be downgraded from what it was saying a few days ago some very strong winds look to affect all of the UK and Ireland on New Years Day.

     

    40 to 60mph gusts look to be widespread,

     

    9am

    post-6686-0-19230200-1419868991_thumb.pn

     

    12pm

    post-6686-0-77026600-1419868991_thumb.pn

     

    3pm

    post-6686-0-13906000-1419868992_thumb.pn

     

    9pm

    post-6686-0-99361700-1419868992_thumb.pn

    Edited by weathermaster
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Has anyone got access to the latest NMM wind gust charts? I'm on my phone at work so can't check! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland

    Has anyone got access to the latest NMM wind gust charts? I'm on my phone at work so can't check! :)

     

    It's still on the 06z run from this morning but here's the gust chart for 3pm on the 1st of January,

     

    post-6686-0-40092600-1419870646_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Looks to be getting downgraded now with each run, still looks windy for many on Thursday just nothing to get overly concerned about on the latest model guidance! 

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