Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January

[Liam J]

In light of the serious situation developing for N'rn UK I have renamed the other thread to now only focus on the extreme weather likely in the coming 48hrs or so. 

 

Please use this thread to discuss any further potential stormy weather that may impact the UK after the weekend. 

[BurntFishTrousers]

In essence, it's a cold water Hurricane.

[BurntFishTrousers]

You know it's gonna be bad when the INSHORE waters forecast mentions hurricane 12 for N / NW parts of Scotland

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-printable/inshore-waters.html

[Snowshine]

The latest GFS model (18z: Thu 08 Jan 2015) signifies a big storm will directly cross over Central England (!) on January 15, 2015.

Obviously, this is most likely not the final outcome as the predicted storm is six days away (which is enough time for changes to be made to the predicted storm path).

 

The storm, as shown on the GFS chart below, is forecasted to produce wind gusts in excess of 70mph in-land (which is much more common in Scotland than England, especially Central and Southern England).

 

The previous model (12z: Thu 08 Jan 2015) tracked the storm further South, so this shows much uncertainty in its path.

 

[matty40s]

This storm has been showing up on the long distance models for almost a week now, and it is still progged in virtually the same area. With the jet where it is and at the speed it is, this will be quite an occasion.

[TwisterGirl81]

Yes it has been showing up for a week on the gfs p and gfs models to be a more southerly event...

Could be gusts of 90mph + in the far southwest and far south east if it comes off and gusts of 60 -70+ quite widely in southern England.

One to watch for sure

[alexisj9]

This is the one I'm dreading, I would normally say I hope it moves north or disappears but I think Scotland have had enough with tonights storm, sustained 97mph winds in stornoway, I wouldn't wish that on anyone. So I think other the evolution that keeps showing where it's weaker and further south would be best.

[amanda2012]

Is this storm worse than 1987?

[Liam J]

Certainly one to watch next week with wind gusts like this being predicted across the N&W, over 90mph!. Still a week away so not overly concerned just yet also UKMO & ECM show something less severe. 

 

Edited January 9, 2015 by Liam J

[Liam J]

Storm still there on the GFS 6z runs, strongest wind across Ireland & central areas of UK, very windy for much of the country. More often than not these GFS super storms get downgraded. 

 

Old GFS

 

New GFS

Edited January 9, 2015 by Liam J

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Until I see the ECM agreeing I'll refrain from going into full worry mode, but looking at the latest output it's not a million miles off either. Comparing the equivalent timescales, ECM has the storm slightly less deep and slightly further NW, which does moderate the intensity somewhat, and downgrade the danger for the more populated areas of S. England.

 

ECM @ midnight Thursday 15th:

 

 

GFS at the same time:

 

 

Interestingly GFS currently showing a very similar chart to ECM T144, but 6 hours earlier:

 

 

Difference in position of main depression only about 50 miles, so the big question is which direction will it then follow, due east as per GFS, or a more NE track as per ECM ? Shame ECM doesn't do 6 hourly charts, although we can guess a little by the next equivalent charts:

 

ECM @ midnight Thursday 16th:

 

 

GFS at same time:

 

 

No doubt GFS wants to keep a more southerly track, with a more intense storm. I guess a few more days yet before we know which one was nearer the truth. Lets hope it's ECM..............

[Liam J]

Yes, still a lot of time to go before we get to next week so expect further changes in the coming days. ECM & UKMO don't show a life threatening storm as per both GFS models so atm I'll view it as a low risk and typical GFS over cooking these lows that get downgraded with time. As ever time will tell, perhaps it's onto something, who knows... If it's still shown on the outputs of the same severity at the beginning of next week and the ECM & UKMO are on board then concern will deffo raise...

Edited January 9, 2015 by Liam J

[Liam J]

NMM12 in general agreement with GFS models for a significant storm next week, similar track shown as well.

 

 

 

[Mokidugway]

NMM12 in general agreement with GFS models for a significant storm next week, similar track shown as well.

 

nmm45.pngnmm46.pngnmm47.png

right through our back door Liam ...

[Liam J]

right through our back door Liam ...

On current outputs yes! Very likely the track will change about a bit in coming days, could get downgraded as well, who knows! 

[Mokidugway]

On current outputs yes! Very likely the track will change about a bit in coming days, could get downgraded as well, who knows!

as much as I like a good storm I think that would be a tad to much !!!.

[vladthemert]

Thanks Liam think just slightly moved north the highest winds was going through the Humber before.   I am sure going to downgrade.

[Liam J]

Storm next week not quite as deep and further north on the 12z, still very windy for many, timing brought forward as well. 

 

Edited January 9, 2015 by Liam J

[Abyss]

GFS(P) Has it

 

 

 

[Liam J]

Those charts would produce gusts of 80-90mph maybe 100mph over central & northern areas.

 

UKMO similar track but not quite as intense. Unusual to see such agreement at this range!

 

Edited January 9, 2015 by Liam J

[on the coast]

GFS(P) Has it

 

 

 

 

 

Worrying Charts getting into the semi reliable time frame now.

[JoeShmoe]

If that verified as on the GFSP youre looking at 90mph+ gusts through the central belt at rush hour - be a Red warning for sure

[Sunny Leith]

If that verified as on the GFSP youre looking at 90mph+ gusts through the central belt at rush hour - be a Red warning for sure

 

Is it a potential "stinger" of the kind we had at start of January last year Joe ? I live in a tenement top-floor flat but that one was the worst in lifetime memory, felt like I could genuinely feel the whole building shake, could hear glass shelves creak in the living room, trees down all over Hillside Gardens. Genuinely scary.

[Daniel*]

Very well done from the GFSP the first model to pin point such disturbing weather, I pointed this out about 8 days ago and its still clinging on and getting ever closer, unlike previous wind events this looks to be affecting a huge swathe, N,S,E,W unlike what we've experience in recent days, watching this closely.

[Summer Sun]

Another storm brewing for mid next week

 

GFS

 

 

GFS P

 

 

GEM

 

 

UKMO

 

 

ECM rolling out now so not long till we see what its going for mid next week

Edited January 9, 2015 by Summer Sun