south indian ocean Severe Tropical Storm Chedza

[Somerset Squall]

Moderate Tropical Storm Chedza has formed, with winds of 40kts, in the Mozambique Channel, just off the western coast of Southern Madagascar. Chedza has some deep convective banding wrapping into a well defined LLCC. The storm only has about another 12hrs over water, so strengthening will be limited. Chedza is expected to survive the trip over Southern Madagascar, and could re-strengthen temporarily as it moves back over water on an easterly track.

[Somerset Squall]

Chedza has strengthened to 50kts according to JTWC. Looking at satellite imagery, Chedza is making landfall. The storm has developed an eye-like feature; if it had more time over water then Chedza could've been a stronger beast.

[Somerset Squall]

Chedza is moving across Southern Madagascar. The rugged terrain has caused Chedza to weaken to 30kts. Chedza should move back over water to the east of Madagascar later today. There, as shear remains low for a while and waters warm, some re-strengthening should occur. A building ridge to the east will then eventually drive Chedza southwards into cooler waters and higher shear associated with the mid-lattitude westerlies, causing weakening, then dissipation.

[Somerset Squall]

Chedza has emerged back over water. The system is quite broad, with little convection over it's centre. JTWC have actually ceased advisories on the system, but MeteoFrance have re-upgraded Chedza to "moderate tropical storm" status. As Chedza veers southeast, it will run into high shear and increasingly cold waters, which should initiate extratropical transition soon.

[Somerset Squall]

Chedza has been downgraded to an extratropical storm by MeteoFrance.