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Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

It's high time the beast from the east grew some b***s and stepped up to the plate lol. It has a great chance to retrogress on the ecm but just doesn't! Well, not enough anyway!

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

ECM with the second slider, Scandi ridge and Easterly to follow?

As mentioned previously we don't need big corrections back West to stay on the cold side.

 

PV just won't relent. Probably too fast and flat upstream this run.

 

ECH1-192.GIF?16-0

I just wonder if the Russian high(slowly backing west)is going to be a player end of the month onwards,re keeping low heights in Europe and eventually sliding an undercut under the high maybe after a few attemps?
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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

People were asking about the EC32 - WSI blog has put up a graphic for the next 4 weeks.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/less-cold-europe-at-the-end-of-january-early-february/

 

ECMWF2.png

thanks it doesnt look great if your looking for cold but you never no its still not to late for a stratospheric warming event 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Tonights ECM is so close to some significant snowfall with a correction west. It could still happen as the models over the last week have been moving one way and then another. Just as you think they've nailed one pattern they move onto a different one so theres obviously some background volatility.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

One thing ive noticed today is the strength off the Scandinavian high!! Its bigger and further west today! ! And one thing about the ecm for me thats a beauty of a run with most of the uk buried in snow apart from maybe ireland and far south west england!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

It's one of those unusual situations where there is a lot of uncertainty about the first 7-8 days, but quite a lot of agreement on what happens thereafter. The longer range outlook looks like returning us back to zonality. With the PV as it is it's hard to see any other outcome really.

In the near term though (say next 4-8 days), good luck to anyone predicting that. GEFS look good in that time frame with better options than the opp, including better northern blocking but a strong zonal signature is developing thereafter.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Mmm I wouldn't be too confident on the return of a sustained period of zonality so to speak, a shift in the overall pattern is taking place and cold pools at this time of year are hard to dislodge.

 

Worth looking at the Jetstream profiles which still show split jet, energy northern arm much weaker than recently and with low heights over Europe every chance heights to the east will build in situ maintaining the split flow energy, which will be forced SE. Yes we are very likely to see more atlantic energy from the NW but not necessarily a locked in mild wet fest, more a rinse repeat episode.

Hope your right, but the PV looks like it's remaining in its position over Greenland / western Canada. If anything we look like we're going to see a strengthening of the PV towards the end of the month. I'm not really seeing a major pattern change tbh, just a temporary relaxation. The ECM 240 tonight ironically looks like a cut and paste job from the final days of last month.

Nothing is certain in model land though :-)

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Mmm I wouldn't be too confident on the return of a sustained period of zonality so to speak, a shift in the overall pattern is taking place and cold pools at this time of year are hard to dislodge.

 

Worth looking at the Jetstream profiles which still show split jet, energy northern arm much weaker than recently and with low heights over Europe every chance heights to the east will build in situ maintaining the split flow energy, which will be forced SE. Yes we are very likely to see more atlantic energy from the NW but not necessarily a locked in mild wet fest, more a rinse repeat episode.

I agree but I can see where he is coming from, lots of varied solutions in the near term all leading to a similar outcome rather dictated by the strength of the lobe of PV over southern Greenland. However just because the models can't see the way past that at the moment doesn't mean there isn't one.

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Posted
  • Location: Springhill, Wolverhampton
  • Location: Springhill, Wolverhampton

Looking Pretty cold and snowy across the Alps this coming week.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4865-alps-weather-forecast-16-january-2015/

I was just reading that when I noticed this chart a fair bit of precipitation in the uk if that's us top left

post-18293-0-93772600-1421436572_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

People were asking about the EC32 - WSI blog has put up a graphic for the next 4 weeks.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/less-cold-europe-at-the-end-of-january-early-february/

 

ECMWF2.png

Ok so this suggests winter is over after this cold spell but is there any wave activity forecast for the strat ?

And normally February the winter month that favours higher pressure or mid latitude high pressure more ?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Quite noticeable how the ecm 12z run fits with the 00z mean

The envelope on the frontal placement T108/T144 and again thereafter is wider than the op (No sh*t Sherlock!) but that run should be no surprise.

The anomoly was keen on further sliders day 10+ so keen to see how that plays out on the 12z mean/anoms

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

People were asking about the EC32 - WSI blog has put up a graphic for the next 4 weeks.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/less-cold-europe-at-the-end-of-january-early-february/

 

ECMWF2.png

 

Ah yes the The ECM 32 dayer the same model that had an extreme high pressure anomaly over Greenland for January back in late December.

The words Chocolate and fireguard spring to mind.

 

With the polar vortex being bounced and stretched around in all sorts of different ways, I think that this winter is one where  anything beyond about 7 days really is fantasy forecasting.

Edited by mcweather
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening folks. Personally I think people are digging way to deep into the model output as we enter a potentially cold spell with regards detail to will it, or wont it snow in my backyard. ! As regards the Uk and picticularly lowland southern Britain, finding snow  historically has always been difficult, Anyway, back to the outlook, and I think we need to take it gently day by day as to what will occur, the cold is well developed over the Uk by T+120 hrs, So , I think surprises in the model outlook will make People Smile :D  :D :D  

post-6830-0-83818400-1421438089_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-94300700-1421438124_thumb.pn

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Normally when you get a difference of opinion in the outputs regarding Europe there is a clear difference in the USA.

 

However if you look across all the outputs they are indeed very similar in terms of the overall pattern, all have the low in the ne USA, all have a shortwave running east from the central USA which then phases with this.

 

There are some smallish differences with the ne USA low in terms of placement/amplitude and depth, the bigger difference is over southern Greenland with the depth of the low there.

 

If you want to be encouraged that the ECM/UKMO might be wrong NCEP have not  accepted those as the definitive answer for that ne USA low, indeed the inference you can take from the New York state discussion is that they might prefer the GFS/GEM. Anyway heres the pertinent part of that discussion;

 

 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL A VERY DIFFICULT CALL FOR THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GGEM...NAM AND GFS ALL HAVE THE STORM AS A NEAR MISS WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FA...PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FA WITH FAIRLY HEAVY QPF. RATHER THAN TOTALLY DISMISS THE ECMWF
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS ACRS THE ERN THIRD OF
THE FA.

 

THE ONLY AGREEMENT AMONGST
ALL THE MODELS SEEMS TO BE THAT THE MODELS TRACK AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST US ON MONDAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WHERE THIS LOW ENDS UP IS AN EDUCATED GUESS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

While the ECMWF rolls out, here’s a rundown of what’s happening over the next 3-4 days.

 

Friday night/Saturday

attachicon.giffax_24.gif

 

Sunday.

attachicon.giffax_36.gif

 

Early next week

Using the GFS 850 charts (I use GFS as it has the most frequent slides), the temperatures look colder in the south for the Sunday snow threat than the Saturday snow threat. I suspect the spoiler for Saturday will be fragmentation of the band of precipitation and the party pooper for Sunday will be position, as the trend on UKMO appears to move extent of precipitation southwards.

 

The T+96 charts look fairly similar to me, with the variation occurring after that from T+120. There was always going to be a risk of either the front not making enough progress over the UK (cold enough, but dry), or crossing too quickly (mild incursion). The latter looks to be the more likely fly in the ointment, but in that case I was wondering if this would at least give some limited nationwide snowfall and accumulations during Tuesday before the mild sector turns it to rain by Wednesday?

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell

Perhaps a fantasy island thread would eliminate a lot of these 50year predicted charts. If we kept this thread exclusively for model discussion concerning the next 5 days it would help enable a clearer picture for noobs like me and all longer term predictions go in the FI thread

Has this very "popular" post been responded to by forum hosts or moderators? If it has , the response has been lost ( to me) in the jumble of the preceding posts to this post. 

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Posted
  • Location: Llandrindod Wells, Powys
  • Location: Llandrindod Wells, Powys

possibly not the place to post but i'd love a thread on saying what will actually happen in words that people that don't understand the models and their individuals runs say.

 

for example

 

'it looks like the north will be wet, midlands dry and south west dry'

 

rather than

 

'there is a shortwave that may effect the scandi high and a reload of the zonal mild pattern developing in the atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

 I suspect not but this sort of thing has been tried before without success, people just don't bother with the other thread in just the same way as happens now. we have other threads for moans groans etc but people still use this one because it is the one where they know their post will get attention.

Has this very "popular" post been responded to by forum hosts or moderators? If it has , the response has been lost ( to me) in the jumble of the preceding posts to this post. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

possibly not the place to post but i'd love a thread on saying what will actually happen in words that people that don't understand the models and their individuals runs say.

 

for example

 

'it looks like the north will be wet, midlands dry and south west dry'

 

rather than

 

'there is a shortwave that may effect the scandi high and a reload of the zonal mild pattern developing in the atlantic.

Then you are possibly better directed to the regional threads or the General weather discussion.This is the model thread and although not in depth,the model output will be discussed with a rather more technical assessment. :)

Edited by winterof79
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