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February 2015 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The GFS would have the CET at about 0.7C by the 10th and so a pretty chilly start to the month.

 

Of note, however, is that the last 2 times we've had significantly below average first halves of February, 2012 and 2009, (-0.2C and 1.0C respectively) we also had significantly milder than average second halves (7.6C and 7.2C respectively).

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Of note, however, is that the last 2 times we've had significantly below average first halves of February, 2012 and 2009, (-0.2C and 1.0C respectively) we also had significantly milder than average second halves (7.6C and 7.2C respectively).

 

Yes, they were what you call pear shaped Winter months!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

CET extremes for February and 1981-2010 means

____________________________________________

 

DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cumulative to date

 

01 Feb ... 11.4 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4
02 Feb ... 11.0 (1923) ... -6.5 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4
03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... 4.5
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -5.0 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.7
05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.8

06 Feb ... 10.3 (1866) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9
07 Feb ... 10.5 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.9
08 Feb ... 11.4 (1903) ... -8.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.8
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831) ... -8.8 (1816) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... (1895 was -7.4)
10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.2 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... 4.6
12 Feb ... 11.4 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6
13 Feb ... 12.0 (1998) ... -7.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.1 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... 4.5
15 Feb ... 11.2 (1958) ... -8.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4
 

16 Feb ... 10.0 (1928) ... -7.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4
17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4
18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3
19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3

21 Feb ... 10.6 (1813) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3
22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3
23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3
24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3
25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3

26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4
29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.4 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4      

___________________________________________________________

 

Note the rise in mean temps in the recent 30-yr averages around 4th to 6th of February. I have the means for 1795-1824 (Dalton) in my historical CET thread and there is no sign of this peak in that colder interval.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73431-daily-cet-average-values-1772-2011/page-1
 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today is -2.0C, while maxima look like reaching near 5C, so staying around 1.3C or 1.4C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

1.3C to the 4th (1.0)

1.4C to the 5th (1.7)

1.3C to the 6th (1.0)

1.5C to the 7th (2.4)

1.5C to the 8th (1.8]

1.7C to the 9th (2.9)

1.8C to the 10th (3.1)

1.9C to the 11th (2.9)

2.1C to the 12th (3.8]

 

A rather cool 10 days or so coming up, with a very slow warming trend. Should that CET forecast be accurate, the 30 day average should drop below 3C by around the 10th.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Minimum today is -2.0C, while maxima look like reaching near 5C, so staying around 1.3C or 1.4C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

1.3C to the 4th (1.0)

1.4C to the 5th (1.7)

1.3C to the 6th (1.0)

1.5C to the 7th (2.4)

1.5C to the 8th (1.8]

1.7C to the 9th (2.9)

1.8C to the 10th (3.1)

1.9C to the 11th (2.9)

2.1C to the 12th (3.8]

 

A rather cool 10 days or so coming up, with a very slow warming trend. Should that CET forecast be accurate, the 30 day average should drop below 3C by around the 10th.

 

Are the higher daily figures driven by increased minima or maxima?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Are the higher daily figures driven by increased minima or maxima?

 

A little of both. Though minima will be further below average than the maxima in general.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Could be about to see a rare 30 day mean below the average, in the last 18 months this has only occurred in August 2014.

 

Already done. The 81-10 average for January 4th to February 2nd is 4.4C, this year we've averaged 4.0C.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Already done. The 81-10 average for January 4th to February 2nd is 4.4C, this year we've averaged 4.0C.

 

 

Thanks, I was referring to the 61-90 average which is still used by the Met Office - though I don't know why...

 

I forgot also Sept and Nov 2013 were slightly colder than average..

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

From Saturday and for the foreseeable the CET zone should see rather average maxima, but the question is what will the minima do.. all depends on whether the upcoming high pressure cell due to park itself over the country also brings in a lot of cloud, if so minima will hold up and the overall mean will probably be very near average, a clearer high will see below minima helping to maintain an appreciable below mean CET into the middle of the month.

 

Whatever, it looks highly probable we will reach mid Feb with a below average CET and perhaps quite notably so..

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

1.6C to the 5th

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Yesterday was 2.7C. Today's minimum is -1.9C while maxima look like reaching about 4.5C, so remaining on 1.6C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

1.7C to the 7th (2.4)

1.9C to the 8th (3.0)

2.0C to the 9th (3.3)

2.1C to the 10th (3.1)

2.3C to the 11th (3.5)

2.6C to the 12th (6.0)

2.7C to the 13th (4.6)

2.8C to the 14th (3.7)

2.8C to the 15th (2.6)

 

So the next 9 days look like averaging about 3.6C, which is about 0.5C below the 81-10 average and 0.1C above the 61-90 average.

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

 

Up-to 1.7c to the 7th

 

2.8c below the 61 to 90 average

 

3.2c below the 81 to 10 average

 

 

So a 1981-2010 February averaged 4.9C by the 7th, even though the month as a whole averages 4.4C? So February is a "cooling" month? How odd...

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

So a 1981-2010 February averaged 4.9C by the 7th, even though the month as a whole averages 4.4C? So February is a "cooling" month? How odd...

 

Going by the data Roger provided 4.9 is the peak with a gradual drop down towards 4.3 and 4.4

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82344-february-2015-cet-forecasts/?p=3159938

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

So a 1981-2010 February averaged 4.9C by the 7th, even though the month as a whole averages 4.4C? So February is a "cooling" month? How odd...

 

 

Certainly over the last 20 years or so, Feb hasn't been a classic warming month, we've seen quite a few colder second halves compared to first halves. The atlantic tends to go quieter through Feb and blocking colder synoptics often surface during the latter part of the month that have can have a notable knock on effect on the CET.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

With a minimum today of -0.3C, and maxima set to reach about 7.5C, so an increase to 1.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

2.2C to the 9th (4.1)

2.3C to the 10th (3.1)

2.4C to the 11th (4.3)

2.7C to the 12th (4.9)

2.9C to the 13th (6.0)

3.1C to the 14th (6.0)

3.4C to the 15th (7.1)

3.7C to the 16th (8.8]

3.9C to the 17th (7.2)

 

Looks like things could warm up substantially toward the middle of the month. The next 10 days look set to average about 5.5C, so about 2.3C above the 61-90 average and 1.5C above the 81-10 average.

Is another February with a cold first half and very mild second half on the cards?

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